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Fooled by Randomness

The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Sprecher: Sean Pratt
Serie: Incerto
Spieldauer: 10 Std. und 3 Min.
4.5 out of 5 stars (199 Bewertungen)

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Inhaltsangabe

This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill, the world of trading, this audiobook is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. In an entertaining narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. Taleb uses stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is.

The audiobook is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the ancient world's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

But the most recognizable character remains unnamed, the lucky fool in the right place at the right time - the embodiment of the "Survival of the Least Fit". Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance.

It may be impossible to guard against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after listening to Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

©2004 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (P)2008 Gildan Media Corp

Kritikerstimmen

"[Taleb is] Wall Street's principal dissident....[ Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church." (Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker)
"An articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider." (Amazon.com)

Hörerbewertungen

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Gesamt

  • 4.5 out of 5 stars
  • 5 Sterne
    124
  • 4 Sterne
    49
  • 3 Sterne
    17
  • 2 Sterne
    7
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Sprecher

  • 4.5 out of 5 stars
  • 5 Sterne
    103
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    45
  • 3 Sterne
    10
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    3
  • 1 Stern
    1

Geschichte

  • 4.5 out of 5 stars
  • 5 Sterne
    94
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    42
  • 3 Sterne
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  • 2 Sterne
    8
  • 1 Stern
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  • Gesamt
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Sprecher
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Geschichte
    4 out of 5 stars

This is not any longer

I am really a fan of Nicholas Taleb's proofs that induction is a flaw and the future cannot be predicted, but after my third book of Nasim Taleb I really got the impression that there is a pattern in his theories and I am looking forward for the black swan to unravel my theory about the theories in the fourth sequel to come. In spite of the critique: I really enjoyed and also the third book made me utter "of course, you stupid idiot". By which I certainly did not ment Nasim Taleb, but confirmed his theory : "we are indeed always fooled by randomness"

  • Gesamt
    1 out of 5 stars
  • Sprecher
    1 out of 5 stars
  • Geschichte
    1 out of 5 stars

just bad

Narrator: takes many long, unwarranted, unexpected, senseless pauses. makes it hard to follow the book.

Book: If I wanted a superficial summary of "thinking, fast and slow", decorated with random stories of insignificant anonymous people, seasoned with quite a frequent and disturbing ego-stroking of the author ("i benefit when most people around are stupid, except for a few who would recognize my brilliance and hire me for it", something like that), I'd ... probably not like myself very much.

there are better books, in all aspects, to get the little valuable information that is in this book.

  • Gesamt
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Sprecher
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Geschichte
    5 out of 5 stars

So much wisdom ...

This was the best non-fiction book I have listened to since many years. I love the structure of the book and the vast amount of wisdom explained by the help of stories, anecdotes, poems, philosophy making the book enjoyable to follow. I have ordered the next book of the author and start reading now. Thank you Nassim Nicolas Taleb.

  • Gesamt
    3 out of 5 stars
  • Sprecher
    2 out of 5 stars
  • Geschichte
    5 out of 5 stars

Does the content fool us by randomness?

The author is a great mind and this book could be very interesting but even the best minds can benefit by listening to others.
In this case, the author should have listened to his editor.
Rather than a well-structured, organized book, this text appears like a random collection of anecdotes.
This makes it much harder to keep listening than would be desirable.
There are some great points in this book but in it's current version, there are serious shortcomings.
The author likes to praise himself, the organization of this book needs serious editing and rather than random anectodes of sometimes questionable relevance, a discussion of actual data and scientific concepts would seem beneficial.

  • Gesamt
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Sprecher
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Geschichte
    4 out of 5 stars

very good. would have liked more trading

great overview but would have liked to hear more depth about trading and felt it ended slightly abruptly wanting more. that aside, I would still highly recommend the book.

  • Gesamt
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Sprecher
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Geschichte
    5 out of 5 stars

Amazing book!

The books by Taleb are just amazing. He has an extremely refreshing view on things and you learn a lot!

  • Gesamt
    2 out of 5 stars
  • Sprecher
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Geschichte
    2 out of 5 stars

same blabla first two hours...

very disappointing book. when one knows a little bit about prob theory (monte carlo i.e.) and has a little common sense, he will find this book pretty boring... he uses many words and repeats himself multiple time only to say the same thing, which I already knew in the first place...

  • Gesamt
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Sprecher
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Geschichte
    5 out of 5 stars

Great work from one of the most thoughtful authors of our time

I like this book because it reminds me (also working in the finance/risk industry) not to foolishly trust our models. Being skeptical towards forecasters, data miners, pattern searchers, simplifiers, explainers, ... is probably advisable in our world.

Black Swan was the first book I read. Then came Antifragile. Now one of his first pieces. All three are must reads. Enjoy getting wiser/more skeptical ;-)