Thinking in Bets Titelbild

Thinking in Bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

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Thinking in Bets

Von: Annie Duke
Gesprochen von: Annie Duke
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Über diesen Titel

 NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result in “the ultimate guide to thinking about risk” (Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit).

“A big favorite among investors these days.”—The New York Times

“Outstanding.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run. Erfolg im Beruf Management & Leadership Seelische & Geistige Gesundheit

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Kritikerstimmen

"A big favorite among investors these days." –The New York Times

"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world." –Marc Andreessen

“Outstanding.” –Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work." –Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge

"An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life." –Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting

"Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings--and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it." –Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game and Mastermind

"The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing." –Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing

"Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line." –Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better

"Brilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good." –Seth Godin, author of The Icarus Deception

"A mind-bending and indispensable book for entrepreneurs, leaders, and anyone who faces risk on a regular basis." –Olivia Fox Cabane, author of The Net and the Butterfly

“A highly-readable balance between memorable, real-world analogies and hardcore behavioral science studies... The book is packed with insights.” –John Greathouse, Forbes
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Am relevantesten
Ich fand die Stimme sehr angenehm und habe viel gelernt. Ich kann nur empfehlen das Hörbuch mal selbst durchbzunhöreb

Englisch lernen

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Many product managers recommended the book, but I didn't find it so useful. The theory is based on many psychological facts from Daniel Kahnman.

an okay book

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Man hat das Gefühl, dass die Autorin sich immer nur wiederholt.
Die Ratschläge haben mich nicht überzeugt. Viel zu theoretisch und unpraktisch.
Schlecht ist es nicht, hervorragend auch nicht.

Viel zu un spezifisch und unpraktisch

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In general not a bad book with some good new insights to learn. The approach of thinking in bets when making decisions is probably not completely new to anyone, but the books helps to make it more consciously and provides some supporting data and thoughts. I also like the link established to playing poker as it‘s well suited. Storywise I give therefore 4 stars as it is not completely mind-blowing as some of the other books i have heard. Overall, this makes it 3 stars as I did not like the speaker. Sometimes smart people who make a fortune with their brain and well manage to write a book are not also the best speakers. For Annie this applies, I would not consider her voice as strong and nice to listen to. I would have preferred someone else to read it, it would have not made less authentic.

Decent new insights

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A book which could, if understood and practiced by a majority of people, eventually change human social structures to a possibly more rationally constructed environment - which could provide a healthier foundation for living togehter...but thats only one possible outcome...

It’s basically a must read! :)

2021

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This is an interesting book especially for introduction into biases and how to recognise and deal with them much better. The author does a great job drawing parallels between her poker experiences and decision making in life. The one star deduction is because at some point it feels like repetition of what was already covered in the previous chapters.

Perspective

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Great book, finished it within two evenings.
Worth listening to it (in my case as a trader).

Fast ‚read‘ but powerful tipps..

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Die Message hätte man auch in einer Stunde rüber bringen können.

Leider sehr viel Lückenfüller-Information enthalten, da war es sehr schwer sich durch zu kämpfen.

Die Stimme war mir auch etwas zu energisch, das ist allerdings rein subjektiv.

Schönes Topic, wenig Inhalt

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