Media Monitor spends plenty of time talking about how much advertisers spend.

This week, Kelly Sweeney and Sean Wright flip to the other side of the equation: what are advertisers actually paying?

Using Guideline’s Q2 digital ad pricing data, Sean compares CPM trends across the U.S., UK, and Canada and finds something surprising.

Historically, digital advertising prices across all three markets have been remarkably similar.

Going back to 2024, the difference between the highest and lowest markets could be as little as roughly 40 cents after currency conversion.

In 2026, that gap has started to widen.

Canada has become relatively more expensive, while pricing in the UK and U.S. has moved lower. Sean points to one major reason: streaming inventory.

As more ad-supported streaming platforms and video inventory enter the U.S. and UK markets, supply is growing faster than demand. Basic economics then starts to take over, putting downward pressure on CPMs.

Canada has less ad-supported streaming inventory available, helping video pricing maintain more of a premium.

But geography is only part of the story.

Different advertiser categories are changing what they buy.

Pharma CPMs are up almost 125% year over year, reflecting the category’s preference for longer and more expensive inventory.

Travel is up roughly 55%, driven in part by a shift from channels such as display and Instagram toward higher-priced streaming video.

At the other end, quick-service restaurants are moving toward cheaper inventory as they face pressure to reach consumers more efficiently. Household supplies show a similar pattern, with blended CPMs down roughly 21%.

Kelly and Sean also examine individual platforms.

Social pricing has remained relatively stable, with TikTok’s lower CPMs helping keep pressure on the broader social market. Programmatic pricing in Guideline’s data has also remained relatively steady, although the premium inventory represented in the dataset is important context.

The episode closes by looking ahead.

If streaming platforms continue adding inventory, how do they maintain premium pricing?

Sean expects more innovation: pause ads, interactive formats, commerce integrations, QR codes, and other experiences designed to create additional value beyond the traditional 30-second spot.

And somehow, that leads to a debate over whether Sean should buy a “dumb TV” that won’t listen to him.

In this episode:

• Q2 digital advertising pricing trends
• U.S. vs. UK vs. Canada CPMs
• Why pricing historically looked surprisingly similar across markets
• Why the markets are starting to diverge
• How streaming inventory affects CPMs
• Why U.S. and UK video pricing is declining
• Why Canadian video pricing remains stronger
• Pharma CPMs rising nearly 125%
• Travel CPMs increasing roughly 55%
• Why travel advertisers are shifting toward video
• Quick-service restaurants moving toward cheaper inventory
• Household supplies CPMs falling roughly 21%
• TikTok’s influence on social media pricing
• Programmatic CPM trends
• Supply and demand in streaming advertising
• Pause ads and interactive streaming formats
• How streamers may defend premium pricing

Media Monitor breaks down what’s happening across media and advertising and explains what the data actually means.

Follow and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts for a new episode every Wednesday.

If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai.

If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments.

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The World Cup has become a much bigger advertising business in the U.S.

In this episode of Media Monitor, Kelly Sweeney and Sean Wright break down Guideline’s first-ever game-by-game World Cup advertising analysis and look at how the 2026 tournament changed the economics of the event.

The headline number is substantial: Guideline estimates roughly $2 billion in U.S. advertising revenue across television and streaming, compared with less than $400 million during the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

That means the advertising business grew roughly fivefold in four years.

Several factors helped drive the change.

The 2026 tournament was hosted across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, making game times far more accessible to U.S. audiences. Soccer interest has also continued to grow in the country, supported by professional leagues, the U.S. women’s national team, entertainment, and broader cultural adoption.

Streaming played a major role.

Guideline estimates streaming impressions increased from roughly 2 billion in 2022 to 7 billion in 2026, while streaming and simulcast advertising accounted for around $500 million in this year’s tournament.

Pricing moved sharply higher as well.

Sean explains that a World Cup Final ad unit averaged just under $2 million, compared with roughly $500,000 during the 2022 Final. In 2026, that $500,000 level was closer to the average cost of appearing in a standard World Cup match.

U.S. games also attracted major advertising demand. Two U.S. knockout-round matches generated roughly $40 million each, while the Final generated an estimated $150 million across Fox and Telemundo in Guideline’s data.

Another big shift came from Spanish-language streaming.

During the 2022 World Cup, Telemundo accounted for roughly one-third of streaming ad dollars. In 2026, its share climbed to just under half, showing how strongly audiences responded to the Telemundo and Peacock viewing experience.

Kelly and Sean close by looking toward 2030.

With the next World Cup hosted across Spain, Portugal, and Morocco, the discussion turns to what broadcasters and streaming platforms may do next—from additional streaming distribution and sponsorship formats to more monetization around live matches and surrounding content.

In this episode:

• Why U.S. World Cup ad revenue reached roughly $2 billion
• How that compares with the 2022 Qatar tournament
• The impact of North American time zones
• Why U.S. soccer interest continues to grow
• Streaming impressions rising from roughly 2B to 7B
• TV versus streaming advertising revenue
• Why U.S. knockout matches attracted major ad spend
• The estimated $150M advertising value of the Final
• Why World Cup ad pricing moved sharply higher
• Final ad units approaching $2M
• Telemundo’s growing share of streaming ad dollars
• The role of Peacock in World Cup consumption
• What advertisers and rights holders may do differently in 2030
• Why live sports continues to attract growing media investment

If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai.

If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments.

And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

Canada’s advertising market is outperforming the global average.

In this episode of Media Monitor, Kelly Sweeney and Sean Wright dig into Guideline’s first-half data for Canada and explain why ad spend grew 9% year over year, compared with roughly 6% globally.

Part of the story is a rebound from a weaker period. Sean notes that tariffs and pressure on the automotive sector weighed heavily on Canada’s economy and advertising market the year before. That creates an easier comparison, but the current recovery appears broader than a simple bounce.

Podcast advertising is one of the clearest bright spots.

While podcast spend is roughly flat globally in Guideline’s data, Canada is up 25%, extending an already strong prior year and reflecting continued investment in Canadian-specific shows and talent.

Social is also outperforming.

Canada’s social advertising grew 21%, compared with roughly 14% globally, with the automotive category responsible for much of the additional lift. Auto has not fully recovered overall, but social stands out as one area where the category is spending more aggressively.

Travel offers another interesting contrast.

While broader travel advertising remains under pressure in many markets, Canadian hotels and resorts are up roughly 32%, supported by more domestic travel and stronger interest in Canadian destinations.

Looking ahead, Sean expects growth to moderate but remain healthy.
Guideline’s outlook is for Canada to finish the year with growth in roughly the 7% to 8% range, as some first-half sports effects fade but the underlying mix of categories and media types remains relatively strong.

In this episode:

• Why Canada’s H1 ad market grew faster than the global average
• The impact of last year’s economic weakness on current comparisons
• Why podcast advertising is up 25% in Canada
• How Canadian social spend is outperforming global growth
• The role of automotive advertising
• Why hotels and resorts are up 32%
• The “Buy Canada / Stay Canada” effect
• Domestic travel and tourism demand
• What social media restrictions could mean for ad spend
• Why Australia’s under-16 social restrictions have not slowed social advertising
• Guideline’s outlook for Canada in the second half
• Why the fundamentals look healthier than a simple rebound

If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai.

If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments.

And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

The NBA had a very strong advertising year.

In this episode of Media Monitor, Kelly Sweeney and Sean Wright break down Guideline’s latest NBA advertising report and explain how the league grew ad revenue from roughly $1.5 billion to $2.1 billion in a single season.

A big part of the story starts with distribution.

After Warner Bros. stepped back from its previous role, the NBA expanded across NBC, Peacock, Amazon, ABC, ESPN, Hulu, and other platforms. That created more places for audiences to watch and more inventory for advertisers to buy.

The result was a major increase in streaming revenue.

Sean explains that streaming ad revenue climbed from roughly $10 million to $874 million, driven by a combination of simulcasts, exclusive games, and broader digital access.

Pricing also moved higher. Regular-season unit rates increased substantially, meaning the league would have generated more revenue even if the number of ads sold had stayed flat.

But more changed than pricing.

The NBA also reached an estimated 170 million people during the season, its highest reach in roughly 25 years. That broader audience helped create stronger demand across the regular season, playoffs, and Finals.

Kelly and Sean also unpack why Finals comparisons require care.

A seven-game series naturally creates more advertising inventory than a five-game series. Looking only at total Finals revenue can make performance appear flat. Comparing the first five games of each series tells a very different story and shows much stronger year-over-year growth.

The episode closes with another encouraging signal: advertiser participation was more diversified across product categories, meaning the NBA’s growth was not dependent on just one or two areas of the market.

In this episode:

• Why NBA ad revenue rose from roughly $1.5B to $2.1B
• How streaming changed the league’s advertising economics
• The effect of NBC, Peacock, Amazon, ABC, ESPN, and Hulu distribution
• Why regular-season unit rates increased
• How the NBA reached roughly 170 million people
• Why streaming revenue jumped so sharply
• How exclusive streaming games contributed to growth
• Why the NBA now compares differently with the NFL on streaming revenue
• How playoff demand performed
• Why Finals revenue needs to be adjusted for series length
• The difference between total Finals revenue and game-for-game comparisons
• Why broader advertiser participation matters
• What the next NBA season will have to do to match this year’s performance

Media Monitor breaks down what’s happening across media and advertising and explains what the data actually means.

Follow and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes every Wednesday.

If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai.

If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments.

And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

Advertising spend can be growing while the market underneath it is becoming more fragile.

In this episode of Media Monitor, Kelly Sweeney gives Sean Wright a new goal: create an index important enough to have his name attached to it.

Sean may already have a starting point.

Inspired by a discussion of market concentration and monopoly measurement, Sean applies similar mathematical thinking to Guideline’s advertising data to ask a different question:

How much of advertising growth is being driven by only a small number of categories?

Guideline tracks 89 advertising subcategories. Rather than looking only at the headline growth rate for the market, Sean examines how widely that growth is distributed.

If many categories are contributing, the market appears more balanced.

If one or two categories account for a disproportionate share of incremental spending, the headline number may hide more risk than it reveals.

Sean explains that early analysis suggests the concentration of advertising growth may be strongly associated with what happens in the market roughly 11 to 12 months later.

That creates potential applications for agencies, publishers, advertisers, and anyone trying to assess the health of advertising demand.

The current picture provides an interesting example: advertising growth is concentrated among relatively few categories, while spending declines are spread across a broader group.

For Sean, that combination suggests more risk beneath the headline growth number than the topline figure alone would indicate.

Kelly and Sean discuss how a concentration index could help agencies think about negotiations, publishers assess revenue exposure, and industry leaders get a faster read on market conditions without having to interpret dozens of category trends individually.

The conversation also introduces the idea of publishing the new indicator as a recurring Guideline market measure—with the final name still very much up for debate.

And, naturally, Jimothy the raccoon makes another appearance.

In this episode:

• How market concentration can reveal risk that topline ad growth misses
• The economic index that inspired Sean’s advertising analysis
• Why growth concentrated in a few categories can make the market less stable
• Why diversified advertising growth can indicate healthier conditions
• What concentrated gains and broad-based declines may signal today
• How the model could help agencies, publishers, and advertisers
• Using advertising category data for strategic decision-making
• Why a single index could simplify dozens of category trends
• The potential predictive relationship between concentration and future ad spend
• How publishers can assess dependence on a limited set of advertisers
• Why diversification matters for advertising revenue
• The early plans for a recurring Guideline advertising concentration index
• The debate over what the index should actually be called

Media Monitor breaks down what’s happening across media and advertising and explains what the data actually means.

If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai.

If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments.

And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

AI agents may automate more of media buying, but WPP’s Devon DeBlasio believes people still need to remain at the helm.

In this installment of Media Monitor: Conversations at Cannes, Guideline Chief Product Officer Steve Silvers sits down with Devon DeBlasio of WPP to discuss how agentic systems could change advertising—from buying media and building audiences to influencing how brands appear inside AI-generated recommendations.

WPP has committed to helping develop standards for agentic buying, working with organizations including IAB Tech Lab and Prebid. Devon explains why common protocols and guardrails matter as buyer agents, seller agents, and MCP-enabled systems begin interacting across the advertising ecosystem.

A central question runs through the discussion:
Which decisions should an AI agent be allowed to make, and which should still require human approval?
Devon describes WPP’s “human at the helm” approach, particularly when actual media dollars are being committed. AI can identify signals, generate potential audiences, surface insights, and automate parts of a workflow, while experienced people remain responsible for decisions with financial consequences.

The conversation then turns to audience strategy. With large pools of historical performance data and increasingly capable models, agencies may be able to create more tailored growth audiences instead of relying as heavily on standardized audience segments.

Steve and Devon also look at a newer question for marketers: What happens when the entity you need to influence is an AI agent?

Consumers are increasingly asking systems such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude for product recommendations. That creates a new brand challenge around how a company appears inside AI-generated responses, which signals shape those recommendations, and how marketers might influence brand perception in an agentic environment.

The discussion closes with data literacy. Natural-language interfaces may make sophisticated analytics accessible to more marketers, but easier access to data does not remove the need for consistent measurement, shared definitions, sound governance, and human judgment.

In this episode:

• What agentic media buying means for advertisers
• Why WPP is helping develop standards for agentic buying
• WPP’s “human at the helm” philosophy
• Where AI automation ends and human approval begins
• Why WPP is beginning its agentic buying work with CTV
• How buyer and seller agents could interact
• How AI could create more tailored growth audiences
• The role of historical performance data
• Moving beyond standardized audience segments
• What “influencing algorithms” could mean for marketers
• How brands appear inside ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and other LLMs
• The emerging relationship between AI discovery and brand perception
• AI agents as a new layer between brands and consumers
• How natural-language interfaces change data analysis
• Why common definitions and standards still matter
• Why human judgment remains part of automated media buying

Media Monitor: Conversations at Cannes is a special summer series featuring conversations with leaders across media, advertising, data, and technology.

Also subscribe to the regular Media Monitor podcast, released Wednesdays, for analysis of the data and trends shaping the media market.

If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai.

If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments.

And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.