Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil experienced significant harvest delays as excessive rainfall in Minas Gerais disrupted coffee collection, tightening physical supplies and supporting higher prices. These short term constraints contrast with forecasts for a record 2026/27 crop of approximately 71.9 million bags. The market remains cautious as ICE certified Arabica inventories have fallen to multi-year lows, while concerns over potential El Niño impacts on flowering and next season's production continue to add uncertainty.
• Ethiopia delivered another strong performance, with coffee export revenues exceeding $3 billion, supported by a projected 4.7 percent increase in production and elevated global Arabica prices. The country's emphasis on quality, combined with government efforts to align national coffee standards with international benchmarks, has reinforced its competitiveness and positioned the sector for continued growth.
• Vietnam continued to strengthen its role as the world's leading Robusta producer. Coffee exports increased 7.9 percent during the January to May 2026 period, supported by expanding production that is expected to reach new highs. The country's growing supply stands in contrast to tightening Arabica availability, reinforcing Vietnam's importance in meeting global coffee demand.
• Overall, the episode highlights how regional differences are driving the coffee market. Brazil is managing weather-related supply disruptions despite strong production prospects, Ethiopia is benefiting from premium quality and supportive policy measures, and Vietnam continues to expand its dominance in the Robusta segment. Together, these developments illustrate the complex balance between short term market pressures and long term supply growth across the global coffee industry.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• In Brazil, heavy rainfall across key southern growing regions disrupted the Arabica harvest and raised concerns about bean quality during the drying process. More than 50 millimeters of rain hindered field operations, limiting near-term export availability at a time of strong international demand. These supply constraints helped drive Arabica futures to a six week high, while ICE certified Arabica inventories fell to their lowest level in more than two years, adding further pressure to the global supply chain.
• The episode also explores the potential impact of El Nino, which could delay seasonal rains needed for flowering of Brazil's 2026-27 Arabica crop, creating additional uncertainty for next year's production. At the same time, longer-term supply expectations remain more bearish. The USDA projects Brazil's 2026-27 coffee crop at a record 71.9 million bags, prompting Rabobank to raise its global Arabica surplus forecast despite the current weather-related disruptions.
• In contrast, Vietnam's Robusta market continues to benefit from strong production and export growth. Exports increased 7.9% year over year during the first five months of 2026, and production is expected to reach a four year high. Combined with lower shipping costs following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, abundant Vietnamese supplies are keeping global Robusta prices under pressure, despite historically low ICE Robusta inventories.
• Overall, the episode highlights a coffee market driven by two distinct narratives: tightening Arabica supplies and weather risks in Brazil, alongside abundant Robusta production in Vietnam. The balance between these opposing fundamentals, together with weather developments and global trade conditions, will remain the key drivers of coffee prices and market availability in the months ahead.

Global coffee market summary

• Brazil remains the dominant force shaping global coffee markets, with production forecasts for the 2026/27 season reaching as high as 71.9 million bags according to the USDA, while private estimates suggest even larger harvests. Strong output, combined with a weaker Brazilian real, is encouraging exports and contributing to expectations of a global coffee surplus of around 10 million bags. However, the potential development of El Niño during the critical flowering period later in the year could threaten the 2027/28 Arabica crop. At the same time, relatively low ICE Arabica inventories continue to provide an underlying layer of market uncertainty.
• In Vietnam, coffee exports increased by 7.9% between January and May 2026, reaching 922,000 metric tons. Production is projected to rise by 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons, supported by favorable growing conditions, improved farming practices, and continued investment in productivity. As the world's leading Robusta supplier, Vietnam's expanding output is expected to reinforce pressure on global coffee prices.
• Indonesia faces a more challenging outlook. Coffee production is forecast to decline by 8% in the 2026/27 season to 11.38 million bags after excessive rainfall disrupted flowering and fruit development across key growing regions. Green coffee exports are expected to fall by 11% to 7 million bags, reducing the country's contribution to global supply and partially offsetting growing production elsewhere.
• Colombia is projected to increase coffee production by 7% to 13.4 million bags in 2026/27, strengthening global Arabica availability. Higher output, combined with steady domestic consumption, positions the country as an important stabilizing force within the premium coffee segment.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil is entering a record production season for 2026/27, with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projecting output at 71.9 million 60-kilogram bags, a 14.1% increase driven by favorable weather and the positive phase of the biennial cycle. Arabica output is up 25% to 47,500,000 bags, while robusta is marginally lower at 24,400,000 bags, a 2.4% decline. Total exports are projected to rise 29.6% to 49,070,000 bags. Despite the volume growth, farm gate prices have deteriorated sharply, with Arabica down 28% and robusta down 46% year on year as of April 2026, compressing producer incomes. The National Coffee Economy Defense Fund has allocated BRL 7,370,000,000 to support crop management and marketing across the sector.
• Vietnam recorded export growth of 15.8% year on year for January to April 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons, continuing momentum from a 17.5% export increase in 2025. Production for 2025/26 is forecast at 1,760,000 metric tons (29,400,000 bags), a 6% increase and a four-year high, reinforcing Vietnam's central role in global robusta supply.
• Indonesia is facing an 8% production decline for 2026/27 to 11,380,000 bags, with robusta accounting for 10,000,000 bags. Excessive rainfall in 2025 disrupted flowering and fruit set in Southern Sumatra. Green coffee exports are expected to fall 11% to 7,000,000 bags, with infrastructure damage inflating domestic transport costs and constraining export flows.
• Colombia is projecting a 7% production increase for 2026/27 to 13,400,000 bags, providing a partial counterweight to supply volatility elsewhere.
• At the global level, Stonex is forecasting a surplus of 10,000,000 bags for 2026, the largest in six years, driven primarily by Brazil's record output and Vietnam's strong performance. Near-term risks include El Nino impacts on subsequent crop cycles, logistical bottlenecks in key exporting countries, currency volatility, and elevated shipping costs linked to Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Vietnam's Central Highlands saw domestic coffee prices ease by VND 800 per kilogram, with provincial prices ranging from VND 87,200 per kilogram in Lam Dong to VND 87,800 per kilogram in Dak Nong. The narrowing spread across provinces alongside the overall price decline points to softening farm-gate conditions and compressed margins for growers.
• Brazil is projecting a record 2026 harvest of 66.7 million 60-kilogram bags, up 18% year on year, according to CONAB. This would represent approximately 37% of global coffee supply. Arabica is the primary driver, with output forecast at 45.8 million bags, supported by a favorable biennial cycle and expanded productive area. Logistical constraints at the Port of Santos remain a key risk to export execution given the volume involved.
• Futures markets weakened across both major contracts during the period. London Robusta for July 2026 declined 1.34% to $3,772 per ton, while New York Arabica for July fell 1.51% to 269.85 cents per pound. The moves reflect broader supply-side pressure stemming from Brazil's anticipated volume and global market uncertainty.
• The USDA projects a modest increase in both global production and consumption for the period. Brazil's dual-varietal dominance across Arabica and Robusta positions it as the central variable in global supply management, with port throughput capacity at Santos a critical factor in whether projected export volumes can be realized efficiently.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Vietnam maintains its position as a dominant robusta supplier despite significant domestic price pressure. Central Highlands prices have declined 31% compared to 2025, ranging between 85,500 and 86,100 dong per kilogram, driven by falling global benchmarks and reduced farmer selling activity as some growers withhold supplies in response to lower rates. Despite domestic pricing headwinds, Vietnam's robust export performance, marked by a 15.8% increase from January to April 2026, reinforces its role as a leading global supplier. Robusta certified stocks suggest a tighter inventory landscape, and Vietnam's significant influence on global robusta dynamics is expected to persist despite current bearish market pressures. Future price movements will depend heavily on global trends and local supply conditions.
• Indonesia's coffee market presents a mixed outlook as it approaches harvest season. June-delivered Sumatra Robusta commands a premium due to tighter local supplies, and crop prospects appear promising. However, excessive rainfall has projected an 8% decline in 2026-2027 green coffee output, with robusta yields particularly impacted and flood damage complicating the arabica outlook. This production contraction could tighten global robusta availability and influence both local and international coffee markets. The forthcoming harvest will be pivotal in determining production strength and market dynamics.
• Brazil's record harvest expansion is creating downward price pressure amid global surplus concerns. Rising arabica and conilon outputs are positioned to generate a potentially record harvest, but bearish sentiment persists due to surplus expectations. Export flows face potential delays and bottlenecks at the Port of Santos that could disrupt shipment volumes despite increased output. These logistical challenges may pressure local prices while simultaneously providing support amid global surplus fears. Brazil's ability to manage both production volume and export infrastructure will be critical in shaping global supply patterns and pricing dynamics.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Vietnam's coffee production is poised to significantly influence the global coffee market, with projections for the 2025-26 cycle anticipating a robust 30,800,000 bags, chiefly composed of Robusta beans. This estimate accounts for approximately 17.2% of global production, underscoring Vietnam's critical role in the coffee industry. The expected increase to 30,800,000 bags denotes a 2,300,000 bag surge, paving the way for a rise in exports to 24,600,000 bags and reinforcing Vietnam's standing as a leading global supplier. However, the sector faces challenges due to severe hydrological deficits impacting early-stage cherry retention, thereby threatening yield objectives. Additionally, producers are withholding stock due to low domestic farm gate prices, likely affecting short-term supply in international markets.
• El Salvador's 2026-27 market cycle forecasts a contraction in green coffee production by 7.5% to 542,000 bags, attributed mainly to long-standing structural challenges rather than immediate market forces. Export volumes, however, are projected to increase slightly to 543,000 bags, indicating a strategic release from stored reserves in response to firm global prices. Despite efforts and financial support to revitalize the sector, issues such as aging plantations and limited access to financing persist. While these internal challenges pose significant risks for El Salvador, their impact on global coffee trade remains minimal given the country's modest production footprint.
• Brazil's outlook remains strong, with the 2026-27 harvest estimated between 75.3 and 75.9 million bags propelled by favorable conditions and robust Arabica and Robusta outputs. This substantial volume cements Brazil's market dominance, although logistical bottlenecks at major ports and rising mechanized harvesting costs present notable challenges. Issues related to forced labor and supply chain transparency pose reputational risks, potentially affecting trade relations amid increased scrutiny over ethical sourcing practices.
• Guatemala's coffee production for the 2026-27 cycle is projected to slightly increase to 3,260,000 bags, supported by expanded harvest areas and ongoing plantation renovations. Arabica coffee remains predominant, representing 96% of production. Despite growth, Guatemala contends with rising input costs and pest challenges that could impact yields. The country maintains a niche yet important presence in a market heavily influenced by larger producers, supplying strictly hard bean arabica.