Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil's 2026 coffee crop is forecast by Conab at 67.6 million bags, up 19.6% year on year, driven by a 34.8% increase in Arabica production to 48.21 million bags. However, heavy rainfall has damaged drying conditions, leaving only 10-15% of the crop meeting exchange-grade standards, compared with a historical 30-35%. Exchange-grade premiums have risen to 15 cents per pound over futures. September green coffee shipments increased more than 20% year on year to approximately 3.9 million bags, while domestic consumption is also strengthening and industry stocks have fallen to just four to seven weeks of supply.
• Colombia faces a tighter outlook, with production forecast to fall 15% to 12.65 million bags and exports down 12% to 11.78 million bags. Earthquake-related disruption in major producing regions has added uncertainty, although no significant damage to milling facilities was reported. In Vietnam, Robusta output is expected to rise 6% to a four-year high of 29.4 million bags, while September exports surged 53%. However, disagreements over prices are delaying new-crop sales, and potential El Niño-related drought poses a risk to the 2027/28 harvest.
• Weather remains a concern in Indonesia and Ethiopia. Below-average rainfall in southern Sumatra could affect flowering for Indonesia's next main crop, while deficient rainfall in parts of Ethiopia could reduce bean size and density. These risks may limit quality and future supply even where current harvesting conditions remain favorable.
• The International Coffee Organization forecasts record global production of 183.6 million bags for 2025/26, exceeding consumption and creating the first surplus in five years. ICE Arabica stocks have recovered slightly from a 27-year low, while Robusta inventories have reached a one-year high. Despite this broader bearish supply outlook, December Arabica futures rose 6.5% during the week, trading near 316 cents per pound. Overall sentiment remains neutral to cautiously bullish in the near term, as immediate Arabica quality shortages and regional supply risks offset expectations of a larger global surplus.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil’s 2026 production forecast is rising, with Conab projecting 67.6 million bags, including 48.21 million bags of Arabica, up 34.8%. Exports increased 20% year on year in September, forcing farmers to release stocks as warehouses fill. Despite favorable flowering conditions in parts of Minas Gerais, the threat of El Niño-related rainfall delays remains significant. Excessive rain in Espírito Santo could also cause uneven flowering and fungal problems. Post-harvest rehumidification is creating additional quality concerns, while worsening coffee-to-fertilizer exchange ratios are squeezing producer economics.
• Vietnam is expected to increase production, but export performance remains mixed. Efforts to improve export value through deeper processing face capital constraints, while compliance with the European Union’s deforestation regulation remains a challenge. Forecast rainfall could also increase harvest risks. In Colombia, production is declining, with an earthquake disrupting key growing regions, although limited damage to milling facilities has reduced the risk of broader supply-chain disruption.
• Indonesia faces severe drought, particularly in southern Sumatra, threatening to delay flowering and creating uncertainty around Robusta supply and premiums. Ethiopia’s harvest is beginning under moderate risk, as reduced rainfall during cherry development could produce smaller, less dense beans. Drier conditions are nevertheless supporting picking and drying operations.
• Globally, the International Coffee Organization anticipates a supply surplus as production increases, particularly for Arabica, despite tight inventories. A stronger Brazilian real is limiting farmer selling, while market expectations continue to favor lower prices. Traders may interpret price rebounds as short-covering opportunities rather than evidence of a sustained recovery.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil's 2026 production estimate has been raised to 67.6 million bags by CONAB, including a 34.8% increase in Arabica output to 48.21 million bags. USDA FAS and StoneX project an even larger crop of up to 77.2 million bags. Green coffee exports rose more than 20% year on year in September, although limited exchange-grade quality is supporting market premiums. High fertilizer costs are also squeezing producer margins and limiting investment.
• Colombia remains a source of support for Arabica prices, with production down 15% to 12.65 million bags and exports declining 12% year on year. In Vietnam, robusta exports surged 53% in September, although lower average prices reduced export value. Firm farm-gate prices, weather risks and expectations of lower production in the next season could constrain future supply.
• Indonesia faces insufficient rainfall in southern Sumatra, threatening flowering and next year's harvest. In Ethiopia, inadequate rainfall and above-normal temperatures could affect coffee cherry quality and export volumes as harvesting begins.
• Globally, coffee production is projected to reach record levels, with a surplus expected for the first time in five years. Despite regional supply risks and price premiums for quality beans, the broader market sentiment remains cautiously bearish. Production estimates, export flows, weather conditions and futures positioning will remain key drivers of price direction.

Global Coffee Market Summary:

• Brazil remains the central supply story. USDA projects 2026/27 production at a record 71.9 million bags, while StoneX forecasts an even higher 77.2 million bags. CONAB has also raised its 2026 estimate to 67.6 million bags, supported by a projected 34.8% increase in Arabica production to 48.91 million bags. Robusta production, however, is expected to decline 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. Exports remain strong, with August shipments reaching 4.155 million bags, up 31% year on year, while Brazil's Trade Ministry reported a 44.6% increase in August coffee exports.
• Weather remains a key variable for Brazil's next crop. Rainfall has generally been supportive of flowering, although heat risks in Espirito Santo and uneven conditions in other regions could affect development. Quality is a more persistent concern, with reduced availability of exchange-grade coffee pushing up premiums. Producers are also facing tighter margins as the coffee-to-fertilizer exchange ratio deteriorates, while warehouse capacity constraints and the growing threat of coffee berry borer add pressure to the supply chain.
• Vietnam continues to support global Robusta availability, with 2025/26 production forecast to rise 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million tonnes. Exports from January through August increased 13.7% year on year, although export prices have fallen sharply. Favorable rainfall and soil moisture are supporting cherry development as the harvest approaches, leaving Vietnam with relatively low weather risk.
• Other major origins face more significant challenges. Colombia's output has fallen approximately 17% to 12.4 million bags, while an earthquake in key growing regions and disruptions around Buenaventura have added supply concerns. Indonesia currently carries the highest weather risk among major producers, with worsening drought in southern Sumatra threatening flowering and crop development. Ethiopia also faces medium weather risk as low rainfall and high temperatures threaten cherry size, weight, and quality.
• At the global level, the coffee market is moving into a clear surplus, with 2025/26 production reaching a new high and consumption weakening. Global output is projected to increase another 6% in 2026/27, largely because of Brazil, while softer imports point to slower demand. The main bullish counterweight is Arabica availability, with ICE-certified stocks remaining near historical lows. Robusta inventories, in contrast, have increased, reinforcing weaker sentiment in that segment.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil: The USDA FAS projects a record 2026/27 crop of 71,900,000 bags, up 14%, while StoneX sees 77,200,000 bags, up 23.9%. The harvest was 97% complete by late August. Cecafé reported record August exports of 4,155,000 bags, up 31% (Arabica up 26%, Robusta up 54%), and green coffee exports for 2026/27 are projected at 49,400,000 bags, nearly 30% above previous records. Full warehouses are forcing farmers to sell stored coffee, adding to price pressure. Risks include El Nino disrupting flowering, excessive rain raising waterlogging and disease concerns, and a post-harvest quality problem that has sharply reduced exchange-grade coffee.
• Vietnam: 2025/26 production is forecast up 6% to a four-year high, and January to August exports rose 13.7%. Average export prices fell 20.4%, squeezing margins. Heavy pre-harvest rain could hurt quality, delay harvesting, and encourage fungal disease.
• Colombia: Recent production is down about 17% due to earlier adverse weather, providing a bullish element. A 7.4 magnitude earthquake caused disruptions, but operations have partly resumed and export routes through Buenaventura remain open.
• Indonesia: Sumatra robusta premiums are fluctuating. Below-average rainfall poses a medium risk to the 2027/28 flowering phase and berry maturation.
• Ethiopia: Exceptionally dry conditions in major growing areas pose a medium risk to cherry development, bean size, and quality ahead of the main harvest.
• Global market: The International Coffee Organization reports the first surplus in five years, and the USDA expects 2026/27 production growth to lift global ending stocks. Low ICE-certified Arabica stocks remain the key bullish factor, while robusta stocks are ample. Technically, Arabica has fallen below major moving averages and support levels, and easing demand leaves no clear catalyst for recovery.

Global Coffee Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• Brazil: Dominance persists, with the record 2026/27 harvest set to flood the market. USDA projects output at 71,900,000 bags, up 14% year on year (47,500,000 bags Arabica, 24,400,000 bags Robusta). Green coffee exports are projected at 49,400,000 bags, nearly 30% higher than last year. Warehouse capacity limits are forcing farmers to sell off previously withheld stocks, countering the narrative of judicious sales management, while quality has slipped, with only 10 to 15% of the current crop meeting exchange grade standards, well below historical norms. Weather has largely supported the outlook, though extraordinary rainfall in key regions poses risk at the flowering stage.
• Vietnam: Robusta production is pressuring prices, with the 2025/26 crop projected up 6% to 1,760,000 tons. January to August exports climbed 13.7% year on year, reflecting a supply glut, though export value fell as average prices dropped to levels not seen since June 2024, with physical market activity also subdued. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture but raises waterlogging risk that could complicate the upcoming harvest.
• Indonesia: A mixed premium picture for Sumatra Robusta across contracts, with severe rainfall deficits compromising flowering initiation, raising risk for the 2027/28 outlook if the dry spell persists.
• Colombia: A bullish counterweight, facing significant supply disruption from a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in major producing regions. Exports have resumed in part with no critical damage to milling facilities, though rolling twelve month production shows a significant downturn.
• Ethiopia: Facing a precarious drought during the crucial cherry development stage, raising concern over near term production potential and requiring close monitoring.

Global Coffee Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Brazil: Anchoring the bearish Arabica sentiment, with August coffee exports up 44.6% year on year to 206,618 tons, the highest monthly volume in eight months, driving December Arabica prices to a two month low. The 2026/27 harvest is 97% complete (96% for Arabica), slightly behind the five year average (91.9% versus 94.9% a year prior via Cuxipe). USDA FAS expects a record crop of 71,900,000 bags, up 14% year on year (47,500,000 bags Arabica, 24,400,000 bags Robusta), with green exports forecast at 49,400,000 bags, nearly 30% higher. Most warehouses are at full capacity, forcing farmer selling despite price pressure. Weather is mixed, with favorable rains in Minas Gerais aiding flowering but recent heavy rains risking flower abortion and fungal disease, while El Nino may delay September to October flowering rains, threatening the 2026/27 season.
• Colombia: Facing supply challenges after a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Caldas and Risaralda, though partial export resumption via Buenaventura has been reported with no major damage to processing facilities. The FNC recorded a 6.6% rise in exports (valued at USD 6.5 billion in 2025), though rolling twelve month production fell about 17% to 12,400,000 bags on an earlier harvest contraction.
• Vietnam: A bearish supply picture for the Robusta leader, with January to August exports up 13.7% year on year and full year exports projected to grow 17.5% to 1,580,000 tons, though prices have fallen 11.2% despite the volume increase. Heavy rainfall forecasts in the Central Highlands raise flood risk, though conditions currently show moderated stress. The EU deforestation regulation could offer a premium for compliant shipments, potentially boosting export volumes by 8 to 10%.
• Ethiopia: High risk to cherry development amid severe drought, with Oromia and Southern Nations regions seeing significantly below average rainfall, stressing bean filling.
• Indonesia: Drought is raising concerns for the 2027/28 outlook as flowering begins under adverse conditions, threatening uniform and productive flowering.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• The global coffee market is facing a widening divergence between tightening Arabica supply and expanding Robusta availability. In Colombia, earthquake damage and logistics disruptions are increasing supply chain risks, while Brazil's slower harvest is putting further pressure on Arabica inventories. Meanwhile, strong Vietnamese exports are adding to Robusta supply and weighing on prices.
• In Colombia, a recent 7.4 magnitude earthquake has disrupted coffee production in key regions including Caldas and Risaralda. Infrastructure damage and logistics problems, including disruptions at the port of Buenaventura, are raising concerns over the movement of coffee despite local processing facilities remaining largely operational. With Arabica stocks already tightening, these disruptions could amplify supply constraints.
• Brazil's harvest is also progressing more slowly than historical averages, with only 64% completed by mid-July. The slower pace is contributing to tighter ICE Arabica inventories and could increase short-term price volatility. However, the longer-term production outlook remains positive, with output projected to increase 14% year on year to a record 71.9 million bags, assuming favorable weather conditions.
• Vietnam is moving in the opposite direction, with exports rising 21.1% from January through July compared with the same period last year. Strong export activity is increasing global Robusta availability and creating downward pressure on prices. Production is also expected to rise by around 6% year on year in the 2025-26 season.