Global Coffee Market Summary

• In Brazil, heavy rainfall across key southern growing regions disrupted the Arabica harvest and raised concerns about bean quality during the drying process. More than 50 millimeters of rain hindered field operations, limiting near-term export availability at a time of strong international demand. These supply constraints helped drive Arabica futures to a six week high, while ICE certified Arabica inventories fell to their lowest level in more than two years, adding further pressure to the global supply chain.
• The episode also explores the potential impact of El Nino, which could delay seasonal rains needed for flowering of Brazil's 2026-27 Arabica crop, creating additional uncertainty for next year's production. At the same time, longer-term supply expectations remain more bearish. The USDA projects Brazil's 2026-27 coffee crop at a record 71.9 million bags, prompting Rabobank to raise its global Arabica surplus forecast despite the current weather-related disruptions.
• In contrast, Vietnam's Robusta market continues to benefit from strong production and export growth. Exports increased 7.9% year over year during the first five months of 2026, and production is expected to reach a four year high. Combined with lower shipping costs following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, abundant Vietnamese supplies are keeping global Robusta prices under pressure, despite historically low ICE Robusta inventories.
• Overall, the episode highlights a coffee market driven by two distinct narratives: tightening Arabica supplies and weather risks in Brazil, alongside abundant Robusta production in Vietnam. The balance between these opposing fundamentals, together with weather developments and global trade conditions, will remain the key drivers of coffee prices and market availability in the months ahead.