Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil experienced significant harvest delays as excessive rainfall in Minas Gerais disrupted coffee collection, tightening physical supplies and supporting higher prices. These short term constraints contrast with forecasts for a record 2026/27 crop of approximately 71.9 million bags. The market remains cautious as ICE certified Arabica inventories have fallen to multi-year lows, while concerns over potential El Niño impacts on flowering and next season's production continue to add uncertainty.
• Ethiopia delivered another strong performance, with coffee export revenues exceeding $3 billion, supported by a projected 4.7 percent increase in production and elevated global Arabica prices. The country's emphasis on quality, combined with government efforts to align national coffee standards with international benchmarks, has reinforced its competitiveness and positioned the sector for continued growth.
• Vietnam continued to strengthen its role as the world's leading Robusta producer. Coffee exports increased 7.9 percent during the January to May 2026 period, supported by expanding production that is expected to reach new highs. The country's growing supply stands in contrast to tightening Arabica availability, reinforcing Vietnam's importance in meeting global coffee demand.
• Overall, the episode highlights how regional differences are driving the coffee market. Brazil is managing weather-related supply disruptions despite strong production prospects, Ethiopia is benefiting from premium quality and supportive policy measures, and Vietnam continues to expand its dominance in the Robusta segment. Together, these developments illustrate the complex balance between short term market pressures and long term supply growth across the global coffee industry.

Global Coffee Market Summary

• In Brazil, heavy rainfall across key southern growing regions disrupted the Arabica harvest and raised concerns about bean quality during the drying process. More than 50 millimeters of rain hindered field operations, limiting near-term export availability at a time of strong international demand. These supply constraints helped drive Arabica futures to a six week high, while ICE certified Arabica inventories fell to their lowest level in more than two years, adding further pressure to the global supply chain.
• The episode also explores the potential impact of El Nino, which could delay seasonal rains needed for flowering of Brazil's 2026-27 Arabica crop, creating additional uncertainty for next year's production. At the same time, longer-term supply expectations remain more bearish. The USDA projects Brazil's 2026-27 coffee crop at a record 71.9 million bags, prompting Rabobank to raise its global Arabica surplus forecast despite the current weather-related disruptions.
• In contrast, Vietnam's Robusta market continues to benefit from strong production and export growth. Exports increased 7.9% year over year during the first five months of 2026, and production is expected to reach a four year high. Combined with lower shipping costs following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, abundant Vietnamese supplies are keeping global Robusta prices under pressure, despite historically low ICE Robusta inventories.
• Overall, the episode highlights a coffee market driven by two distinct narratives: tightening Arabica supplies and weather risks in Brazil, alongside abundant Robusta production in Vietnam. The balance between these opposing fundamentals, together with weather developments and global trade conditions, will remain the key drivers of coffee prices and market availability in the months ahead.

Global coffee market summary

• Brazil remains the dominant force shaping global coffee markets, with production forecasts for the 2026/27 season reaching as high as 71.9 million bags according to the USDA, while private estimates suggest even larger harvests. Strong output, combined with a weaker Brazilian real, is encouraging exports and contributing to expectations of a global coffee surplus of around 10 million bags. However, the potential development of El Niño during the critical flowering period later in the year could threaten the 2027/28 Arabica crop. At the same time, relatively low ICE Arabica inventories continue to provide an underlying layer of market uncertainty.
• In Vietnam, coffee exports increased by 7.9% between January and May 2026, reaching 922,000 metric tons. Production is projected to rise by 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons, supported by favorable growing conditions, improved farming practices, and continued investment in productivity. As the world's leading Robusta supplier, Vietnam's expanding output is expected to reinforce pressure on global coffee prices.
• Indonesia faces a more challenging outlook. Coffee production is forecast to decline by 8% in the 2026/27 season to 11.38 million bags after excessive rainfall disrupted flowering and fruit development across key growing regions. Green coffee exports are expected to fall by 11% to 7 million bags, reducing the country's contribution to global supply and partially offsetting growing production elsewhere.
• Colombia is projected to increase coffee production by 7% to 13.4 million bags in 2026/27, strengthening global Arabica availability. Higher output, combined with steady domestic consumption, positions the country as an important stabilizing force within the premium coffee segment.