This episode offers a thorough overview of the global coffee market as of November 16, 2025.

• In Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, adverse weather associated with La Niña has led CONAB to revise the 2025 Arabica crop downward by 4.9 percent to 35.2 million bags. Despite this setback, a strong rebound is forecast, with Stonex projecting total output to rise by 29 percent to 70.7 million bags in the next harvest, of which 47.2 million are expected from Arabica varieties. Potential tariff reductions in the United States could influence Brazilian export flows and reshape trade dynamics, particularly since tariffs have previously supported U.S. domestic prices by limiting imports.
• Vietnam is also poised for expansion, with coffee exports growing 13.4 percent year over year from January to October, totaling 1.31 million metric tons. Looking ahead, the country’s 2025–2026 output is expected to grow by 6 to 10 percent, contingent on continued favorable conditions. This projected growth in Robusta supply could increase global downward pricing pressure.
• In the United States, the market remains sensitive to regulatory shifts. Speculation about cutting tariffs on Brazilian coffee has drawn attention, as U.S. supply chains rely heavily on Brazil. Any tariff changes would significantly affect pricing and inventory strategies, especially with ongoing constraints in Brazilian exports already impacting stock levels.
• Globally, coffee production is projected to reach a record 178.68 million bags for the 2025–2026 cycle, driven by increased Robusta production in both Brazil and Vietnam. While Arabica output is expected to dip slightly, overall supply will rise. However, this outlook faces risks from climate volatility tied to La Niña and from trade uncertainties in major markets such as the United States, which could disrupt pricing stability and export strategies.

This episode outlines key developments in the global coffee market as of November 9, 2025.

• Brazil’s Arabica coffee output faces mounting pressure due to adverse weather conditions. In Minas Gerais, the top Arabica-producing region, rainfall in October reached only 33.4 millimeters, about 75% of the historical average, following an even drier period earlier in the season. This shortfall threatens the 2026-2027 crop, as insufficient rainfall disrupts flowering and fruit set. The likelihood of a La Niña event, now elevated by NOAA forecasts, could further intensify the dry conditions. As a result, Brazil’s national food supply agency has revised its 2025 Arabica production forecast down to 35.2 million bags from an earlier estimate of 37 million.
• In addition to weather setbacks, Brazil’s coffee exports to the United States have been hit by steep tariffs, contributing to declining inventories in intercontinental exchange warehouses. Speculation around a potential easing of these tariffs could provide some market relief if implemented.
• Vietnam’s Robusta coffee sector is under threat from Typhoon Kalmeghi, which endangers southern production zones. Despite this, exports have risen 10.9% year-on-year to 1.23 million metric tons in 2025. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association projects a 6% increase in 2025-2026 output, potentially reaching 1.76 million metric tons, the highest in four years, assuming no further severe weather disruptions. Vietnam's expanding production continues to influence global Robusta prices.
• Globally, the United States Department of Agriculture anticipates a 2.5% increase in total coffee output for the current cycle, with production reaching a record 178.68 million bags. While Arabica output is expected to decline by 1.7%, Robusta production is forecasted to grow by 7.9%, potentially balancing overall supply. Global ending stocks are projected to rise by 4.9%, suggesting a relatively stable supply outlook, contingent on weather and trade policy developments.

This episode examines key developments in the global coffee market.

• In Brazil, Arabica production has declined by 11.2% to 35.2 million bags, while Robusta output surged 37.2% to 20.1 million bags due to improved rainfall. Despite these shifts, total coffee exports fell by 18.4%, although revenues increased by 11.1% driven by higher global prices. A 50% tariff imposed by the United States on specialty coffee has slashed exports in this segment by 70%, pushing producers like Fazenda Komotzium to seek alternative markets. Domestically, coffee consumption dropped 24% following a 70% price hike since 2023, reflecting economic strain and changing consumer behavior. Looking ahead, uncertain rainfall threatens Arabica yields, though Robusta production is expected to remain strong due to improved agricultural practices.
• Vietnam continues its rapid ascent in the coffee sector, with a 61.4% year-on-year rise in export revenues totaling $6.98 billion from 1.23 million tons of mostly Robusta beans. Production forecasts for 2025–2026 have been raised by 10%, and high-value processed coffee exports have jumped 63.5%. The EU remains Vietnam’s primary buyer, accounting for over 63% of its exports. While Vietnam is gaining global prominence, it still faces challenges in quality standardization and establishing internationally recognized brands.
• Globally, the coffee market is grappling with geopolitical disruptions and climate concerns, potentially intensified by La Niña effects. Coffee exports grew marginally by 0.2%, but certified Arabica stocks have dropped to their lowest levels in 18 months. Brazil and Vietnam remain central to global supply stability, even as policy changes and environmental volatility shape market dynamics.
• Colombia is also showing signs of output growth, presenting future export potential. However, trade accessibility remains a concern due to fluctuating international policies.