Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil is entering a record production season for 2026/27, with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projecting output at 71.9 million 60-kilogram bags, a 14.1% increase driven by favorable weather and the positive phase of the biennial cycle. Arabica output is up 25% to 47,500,000 bags, while robusta is marginally lower at 24,400,000 bags, a 2.4% decline. Total exports are projected to rise 29.6% to 49,070,000 bags. Despite the volume growth, farm gate prices have deteriorated sharply, with Arabica down 28% and robusta down 46% year on year as of April 2026, compressing producer incomes. The National Coffee Economy Defense Fund has allocated BRL 7,370,000,000 to support crop management and marketing across the sector.
• Vietnam recorded export growth of 15.8% year on year for January to April 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons, continuing momentum from a 17.5% export increase in 2025. Production for 2025/26 is forecast at 1,760,000 metric tons (29,400,000 bags), a 6% increase and a four-year high, reinforcing Vietnam's central role in global robusta supply.
• Indonesia is facing an 8% production decline for 2026/27 to 11,380,000 bags, with robusta accounting for 10,000,000 bags. Excessive rainfall in 2025 disrupted flowering and fruit set in Southern Sumatra. Green coffee exports are expected to fall 11% to 7,000,000 bags, with infrastructure damage inflating domestic transport costs and constraining export flows.
• Colombia is projecting a 7% production increase for 2026/27 to 13,400,000 bags, providing a partial counterweight to supply volatility elsewhere.
• At the global level, Stonex is forecasting a surplus of 10,000,000 bags for 2026, the largest in six years, driven primarily by Brazil's record output and Vietnam's strong performance. Near-term risks include El Nino impacts on subsequent crop cycles, logistical bottlenecks in key exporting countries, currency volatility, and elevated shipping costs linked to Strait of Hormuz disruptions.