Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil experienced significant harvest delays as excessive rainfall in Minas Gerais disrupted coffee collection, tightening physical supplies and supporting higher prices. These short term constraints contrast with forecasts for a record 2026/27 crop of approximately 71.9 million bags. The market remains cautious as ICE certified Arabica inventories have fallen to multi-year lows, while concerns over potential El Niño impacts on flowering and next season's production continue to add uncertainty.
• Ethiopia delivered another strong performance, with coffee export revenues exceeding $3 billion, supported by a projected 4.7 percent increase in production and elevated global Arabica prices. The country's emphasis on quality, combined with government efforts to align national coffee standards with international benchmarks, has reinforced its competitiveness and positioned the sector for continued growth.
• Vietnam continued to strengthen its role as the world's leading Robusta producer. Coffee exports increased 7.9 percent during the January to May 2026 period, supported by expanding production that is expected to reach new highs. The country's growing supply stands in contrast to tightening Arabica availability, reinforcing Vietnam's importance in meeting global coffee demand.
• Overall, the episode highlights how regional differences are driving the coffee market. Brazil is managing weather-related supply disruptions despite strong production prospects, Ethiopia is benefiting from premium quality and supportive policy measures, and Vietnam continues to expand its dominance in the Robusta segment. Together, these developments illustrate the complex balance between short term market pressures and long term supply growth across the global coffee industry.