On the Edge
The Art of Risking Everything
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On the Edge
Gesprochen von:
Nate Silver
Für 23,95 € kaufen
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Gesprochen von:
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Nate Silver
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Von:
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Nate Silver
Über diesen Titel
New York Times Book Review Paperback Row selection
“Engaging and entertaining . . . a glimpse of the economy of the future.” —Tim Wu, New York Times Book Review
From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk—and the players raising the stakes
In a world wired for chaos, these players are rewriting the rules. High-stakes, high-IQ, and often high on their own mythologies, they are driving the next era of finance, tech, and politics. But what happens when their bets go too far?
Nate Silver’s On The Edge reveals the hidden world of the River. It is the domain of gamblers and like-minded folks who move markets and change the fabric of society: poker legends, hedge fund titans, crypto speculators, and even those willing to bet the world’s future on AI. They are obsessives with a deep hunger for volatility and an unrelenting desire to exploit every edge over the rest of us. Silver embeds with them, competing in the World Series of Poker, visiting Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX compound, and attending wild Miami yacht parties at the height of the crypto bubble.
On the Edge is a front-row seat to a new world order built on risk, math, and ambition—a gripping ride through the minds shaping your future, whether you like it or not.
* This audiobook edition includes a downloadable PDF of charts and a glossary of terms from the book.
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Unfortunately, the book is a little less cohesive than I would have thought, jumping from topic to topic and bringing up and spending substantial time on anecdotes (e.g., the one on whether or not a poker player cheated in a televised game) that were not particularly relevant for the overall point of the book: framing a picture of a group of risk-takers who amass a lot of power and/or money by their tolerance for risk and analytical prowess. For anyone reading this who does not have a professional or recreational interest in poker, I'd go as far as saying that you can easily skip large parts of the gambling book section (e.g., chapters 2 and 3) as a lot of the text seems redundant or only scarcely related to the overall message of the book.
Then however the book takes a sudden turn in its "chapter 13" (not actually the book's 13th chapter) where almost every sentence is relevant towards describing what people in "the river" are like. This chapter - as well as his subsequent one on the founding and core values of Silicon Valley - are for me the highlight of the book and hugely insightful; in a sense what I'd wish the entire book to be.
The rest of the book is fun but buys a bit too much into what was trendy in 2023-24 (I'm not sure how well this part of the book will age) with several sections on Sam Bankman-Fried and some on Large Language Models. In some of these discussions, he exemplifies what I see as the downside of mostly interviewing river types claiming (without scientific evidence) that the adaptation of LLMs is probably what drove much of the recent growth in companies (I'm sure that's what Silicon Valley types want you to believe, but research on whether it aids productivity and quality of work is mixed - to my current understanding even for programmers who can code much faster now, it's so far a mixed bag given the large number of coding mistakes LLM ls tend to make) or that we experienced "the worst of all worlds" in regards to Covid (because according to Nate we undercut liberties and the economy while still having a lot of deaths - though he doesn't explore any literature and/or simulation studies of how other approaches would have worked out). Here traditional experts' opinions might have been a valuable counterweight. I'm also disappointed by him shortly mentioning but not fully addressing whether some people that succeeded in the river were mostly successful mostly due to random variance - that given the number of risk-takers some had to succeed. Reminded me a bit of a section from Nassim Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" that describes how many stock traders (ostensivly river types) we'd expect to be successful merely due to luck, even if they're actual skill level is below chance level. All in all, I would have appreciated if Nate spend a bit more time on "anti river" and "pro village" arguments than he did; his own opinions are clear, but he didn't give the opposition a fair chance to argue.
For completness, I'll mention that there are also large sections on the potential existential risk of AI technology (e.g., the "Richter scale of human inventions"). They are well-written and interesting but don't tread different waters than what you could read in more specialized writings on the topic (except for maybe framing it in terms of risk/reward with the "river type" frame, and for presenting Nate's personal opinions on the topic, if you care about them).
Overall: Good content but I wish he a) killed some more of his (poker) darlings and b) had more of a singular vision rather than make it a collection of (his views on) random topics that vaguely relate to risk-taking (people).
Voice performance: Over time it gets better (he seems to get into the groove more in the later chapters and as a listener you also get used to his speaking) and it doesn't distract you anymore, but his vocal performance is overall below average (for Nate, let alone for a professional voice actor): Several sentences seem like first takes (e.g., he emphasizes the wrong word in a sentence) or miss liveliness (i.e., the text will - in characteristic Nate fashion - be written with some comedic edge but his delivery will be neutral / seemingly disinterested). I really don't understand why he didn't either a) spend time on making his performance casual fun like he speaks in his podcasts or b) hire a professional if he cannot devote that amount of time on this side-project.
Contentwise a mixed bag (but with high highs)
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Sometimes unstructured but very inspiring
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