In this week’s Trade with Conviction, Rachel, Phil, and James cut through another whirlwind week in oil markets. From Lukoil’s asset fire sale and CPC exemptions to OPEC’s pre-meeting suspense, the team unpacks how sanctions, refining margins, and global diesel strength are shaping sentiment heading into year-end.

Phil dissects crude’s split personality — WTI’s premium into Europe versus value in Asia — and explains why “MEH needs to soften” is the week’s most important crude takeaway. James returns from Sicily with a bullish distillate outlook, breaking down how new Russian sanctions, tight refining runs, and shrinking jet yields are fuelling diesel’s rally.

Plus, in the quickfire round: gasoline stays resilient despite refinery outages, naphtha gets the skip, and a fire at Al Zour shakes up fuel oil flows.

Learn more about Sparta at www.spartacommodities.com

P.S. “bought the rumour and now sold the fact” - Matt, VP Marketing.

• Risk rally has most legs in Dubai as Indian refiners plan to react immediately with trade deals on the line.
• E/W spreads rally in favour of key short markets. Naphtha arbs East remain wide open.
• European diesel now faces multiple risks to imports, at least on paper.
• Gasoline supply risk is likely greater in the East, but prices rallied most in the West so far.

Chapters:

(00:47) Sanctions Shake-Up: Rosneft and Lukoil Fallout

Rachel and Neil react to overnight U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, exploring the immediate risk rally in oil assets and the potential for policy reversals.

(07:45) India's Crude Conundrum

The team discusses how Indian refiners, like Reliance, might navigate sanctions and shift to spot market purchases, potentially tightening global crude supply.

(12:25) JODI Data Dive: OECD Stock Insights

Neil highlights surprising stock builds in OECD regions, particularly in NGLs, and questions their relevance for crude price dynamics.

(15:42) European Refinery Rundown

Phil examines robust European refinery runs amidst capacity drops, with a focus on gasoline demand strength and Dangote’s shaky RFCC operations.

(20:32) Crude Arbitrage and Cushing Concerns

Neil breaks down shifting crude arbitrage opportunities, spotlighting TI’s high valuations and Cushing’s critically low stock levels.

(25:42) QuickFile Market Roundup

The team fire off their key takeaways on the market.

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, A Sparta Podcast, the hosts examine how escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China are shaping the oil markets. They explore how trade disruptions are influencing freight rates, the impact of recent sanctions on Chinese crude imports, and the current outlook for gasoline and refining margins across Asia. The discussion also delves into crude market dynamics and wraps up with quickfire insights on key market trends, underscoring the need to stay informed in an increasingly volatile landscape.

Key Takeaways:

> How US-China trade tensions are reshaping freight markets for now.

> Why sanctions could disrupting crude imports into Asia.

> Refining margins are still high, but does that matter?

> Quickfire market updates from our analysts

Chapters:

(00:49) US China Trade Dynamics and Freight Impacts Neil, June, and Michael break down how renewed US China trade tensions and new port fees are reshaping freight costs, tanker routes, and shipping market behavior. They also discuss why Chinese-built vessels could be the surprise winners.

(05:07) Market Reactions to Sanctions and Regulations June explains how the latest US sanctions on Chinese crude terminals and refineries are disrupting trade flows. The team examines short-term volatility, potential refinery run cuts, and how these measures could influence OPEC’s next moves.

(09:09) Crude Market Analysis and Regional Disparities Neil dissects the IEA’s forecast of a major oil glut and what it means for supply dynamics. The group debates whether OPEC will defend market share or reverse course and how regional price spreads reflect growing global imbalances.

(10:46) Freight Market Overview and Future Predictions Michael shares insights into tightening VLCC availability and shifting freight fundamentals. The discussion covers US Gulf Coast vessel shortages, rising inefficiencies, and how market structure is evolving across key tanker routes.

(12:11) Gasoline Market Analysis Neil and Michael assess EBOB strength, East West spreads, and competing ARBs between the US and Europe. June adds context on blending margins and freight trends, outlining what refiners should watch in the weeks ahead.

(17:50) Refinery Margins in Asia June explores why Asian refining margins are holding up despite unplanned outages, Chinese export limits, and regional turnarounds. Neil adds perspective on the recent dip in US distillate cracks and what it signals for global refining.

(20:52) Crude Analysis Neil highlights the widening gap between West African weakness and Brent resilience, explaining how cheap AG barrels and soft Chinese demand are reshaping crude trade flows. The team discusses the implications for North Sea pricing.

(26:36) Quickfire Round Market Insights and Predictions June and Michael deliver fast updates on key market shifts — from propane undercutting naphtha in steam crackers to freight spreads tightening across the Atlantic — plus what to watch for next week’s trading outlook.

In this week's Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, Rachel Williams, Neil Crosby, and June dive into the oil market's most telegraphed glut, dissecting OPEC's recent 137 kbd production hike and its implications for global crude flows. They explore why Brent spreads remain resilient despite bearish fundamentals, analyse key trades like Brent-Dubai swaps and transatlantic gasoline arbitrage, and highlight shifting dynamics in naphtha and distillates. The episode also covers freight market trends and refining challenges, offering traders actionable insights into navigating oversupply risks and arbitrage opportunities.

Key Takeaways:

• OPEC's production hike: What does the 137 KBD increase signal about their confidence, and how might it reshape global crude markets?
• Brent-Dubai swaps: Is the recent weakness in Dubai a fleeting opportunity or a sign of deeper bearish pressures?
• Transatlantic gasoline arbitrage: Why is the $3.45/gallon setup puzzling traders, and what role does Dangote play?
• Naphtha and distillates: Are East-West naphtha spreads overdone, and is now the time to buy the Ice Nov-Dec gas oil dip?
• Freight market shifts: How are softening TC14 rates and a rebounding TD25 impacting crude and product flows?

Chapters

(01:29) OPEC’s Production Hike and OSP Strategy

Neil unpacks OPEC’s 137 kbd increase and their decision to hold firm on Asian OSPs, signaling confidence amid a looming glut.

(03:22) Decoding the Global Oil Glut

The team investigates why Brent spreads defy bearish fundamentals, exploring oil-on-water trends and Saudi loading patterns.

(07:10) Brent-Dubai Swaps: A Trading Opportunity?

June and Neil analyze the weakening Dubai market and discuss whether selling Brent-Dubai swaps offers a profitable entry point.

(12:17) Transatlantic Gasoline Arbitrage Breakdown

Neil and June explore the $3.45/gallon transatlantic arb, weighing Dangote’s influence and mixed signals from U.S. and Latam stocks.

(15:12) East-West Naphtha: Overbought or Justified?

June highlights naphtha’s peak pricing, driven by Russian refinery attacks, and debates whether East-West spreads are set to correct.

(18:46) Ice Nov-Dec Gas Oil: Time to Buy the Dip?

Neil and June discuss the oversold Ice Nov-Dec gas oil spread, spotlighting shifting U.S. yields and closed European arbs.

(22:20) Quickfire: Fuel Oil, Freight, and Refining Updates

The team tackles Forties’ overvaluation, TC14 softening, and Malaysia’s refinery woes, offering rapid-fire trade insights.

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, host Rachel Williams, alongside analysts Jorge and Neil, dissects the latest oil market dynamics. The discussion delves into bearish US inventory builds, OPEC’s anticipated production hikes, and Venezuela’s export surge to a five-year high. Gasoline markets are spotlighted with strong EBOB cracks driven by Dangote refinery disruptions, while European naphtha faces pressure with a shift to contango. Crude spreads are softening globally, and distillate markets show mixed signals, with potential bullishness looming. The episode wraps with trade ideas, emphasising caution amid a volatile market landscape.

Key Takeaways:

• Physical crude pricing remains choppy but average direction seems downward whilst paper is beginning to crumble.
• US inventory picture remains bearish when you look under the bonnet.
• EBOB's perfect storm is set to calm.
• Record naphtha arb econs not just a Russia scare but a European malaise.

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook podcast, host Rachel Williams teams up with analysts James and Neil to dissect a turbulent week in oil markets dominated by escalating Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, prompting a partial Russian diesel export ban and renewed risk premiums across spreads like Brent and Gasoil East-West. They navigate the disconnect between bullish paper trades ruined by headlines and resilient physical fundamentals, including strong global refinery runs over summer per JODI data and EIA's diesel draws, while teasing opportunities in widening cracks, HOGO rebounds, and persistent WTI discounts amid freight quirks and light ends volatility - urging traders to stay nimble in this cross-current chaos.

Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine's Onslaught: Drone hits on Russian refineries are fueling spreads and bans—catch the team's raw take on why shorts are getting torched, but not all is lost for the bold.
• Diesel Drama: From partial export curbs to global stock squeezes, is Q4 setting up a distillate rally? Hints on cracks, yields, and why HOGO might flip the script.
• Refinery Realities: JODI reveals summer maxed out runs worldwide—now with turnarounds looming, what's the spare capacity myth telling us about margins ahead?
• Crude Conundrums: WTI's export binge masks builds, North Sea physics defy paper premiums, and TAF spreads tick wider—freight or fate driving the marginal barrel?
• Light Ends Lull?: Gasoline spreads yo-yo on Chinese flows and ARA blends, fuel oil cracks spike on VGO feeds—spot the signals amid the resid rebound rumors.

Chapters

(02:04) Ukraine Strikes and Russian Bans

The team unpacks escalating drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, Trump's Ukraine tone shift, and the partial diesel export ban's bullish bite on spreads.

(05:36) JODI Insights: Summer Runs Maxed

Neil highlights JODI's reveal of record global refinery utilization, Saudi surges, and why "everything going right" spells tightness as maintenance season hits.

(08:44) Distillate Dynamics: Cracks and HOGO

James dives into rising gasoil cracks, East-West extremes, EIA diesel draws, and RVO's role in U.S. yields—bullish vibes for winter demand and Russian weakness.

(13:33) Crude Conflicts: Paper vs. Physical

Explore North Sea disconnects, TAF strength fading to discounts, WTI's export-fueled flat stocks, and freight's hand in Brent spread surprises.

(17:27) Light Ends and Fuel Oil Flux

Neil rattles through gasoline's Singapore slump on Chinese tenders, ARA blend shifts, fuel oil crack spikes, and VGO import clues for resid's Q4 setup.

(20:54) Forward Watch and Wrap

James and Neil flag key monitors like U.S. diesel stocks and TAF marginals, with Rachel teasing Q4 chaos—stay hedged amid the headlines.

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, the team dives into critical developments shaping global oil markets, with a focus on China's return to US WTI crude purchases despite tariffs, the impact of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining infrastructure, and the tightening product markets as global turnaround season looms. They explore declining Russian product exports, particularly gas oil, and the implications of flat Chinese export quotas for clean and dirty products. The episode also covers the IEA’s report on global oil production declines, refining capacity constraints, and bullish signals in gasoline and distillate markets, offering traders actionable insights into navigating these volatile trends.

Key Takeaways:

• China’s WTI Play: Why is China resuming US crude purchases despite tariffs, and what blending strategies could make this economically viable?
• Russian Refinery Woes: How are Ukrainian attacks reshaping Russian product exports, particularly gas oil, and what does this mean for global supply?
• Refining Capacity Crunch: Are we facing a shortfall in complex refining capacity, and how might this impact margins during the turnaround season?
• Fuel Oil Dynamics: What’s driving the weakness in low and high-sulfur fuel oil cracks, and could Asian refineries shift feedstock strategies?
• Crude Market Signals: Is the WTI-Brent spread signaling deeper issues in the crude market, and how will Middle East supply influence Dubai premiums?

Chapters:

(01:47)Russian Refinery Attacks and Product Flows

Neil and June unpack the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, focusing on declining gas oil exports and the broader implications for product markets.

(03:41) China’s Crude Comeback

The team discusses China’s unexpected return to WTI purchases, exploring potential blending strategies and the economic implications of navigating US tariffs.

(06:22) IEA’s Oil Decline Warning

A deep dive into the IEA’s report on global oil production declines, highlighting the staggering 8% annual drop and its long-term effects on supply.

(07:43) Refining Capacity Concerns

The discussion shifts to global refining capacity, examining whether complex conversion units can meet demand amidst European shutdowns and Chinese export limits.

(10:27) Fuel Oil Market Update

Hua breaks down the latest Chinese export quotas for dirty products and their impact on low and high-sulfur fuel oil markets, with insights on import needs.

(17:13) Middle East Crude and VLCC Surge

June and Neil analyze the rebound in Middle East crude trading post-APEC, spotlighting the VLCC market’s strength and its effect on WTI and Merban flows.

(24:11) Gasoline Market Signals

The team explores bullish signals in clean product markets, including distillate stock builds, high gasoline spreads, and the potential for parabolic price moves.

(27:36) Naphtha & Distillate Market Signals

(29:40) Trade Ideas for Q4

June, Hua, and Neil share key market indicators to watch, from WTI-Brent spreads to Merban premiums, offering traders ideas for positioning in Q4.

In this episode of Sparta Market Outlook, host Felipe and guests Neil Crosby, Philip Jones-Lux, and Jorge Molinero discuss key takeaways from the APPEC conference, highlighting bearish crude sentiments amid perceived gluts, offset by geopolitical tensions and tight product markets. They explore refining constraints, product strength in naphtha, gasoline, and distillates, while questioning the timing of supply overhangs and the role of China’s SPR builds, providing a nuanced view on flat prices, spreads, and trading positions for the coming quarters.

• Geopolitical risks loom large, from Middle East strikes to NATO responses, potentially bolstering oil prices despite bearish balances.
• APPEC buzz centers on an impending crude glut, but low OECD stocks and OPEC export realities challenge the consensus.
• Refining capacity shortages could sustain tight product markets, even as crude supply appears ample.
• NAFTA and gasoline show rally potential, with east-west arbitrages and turnaround impacts in focus.
• Distillates and crude spreads like Brent-Dubai and WTI-Brent signal evolving dynamics worth watching.

Chapters

(01:57) Introduction and APPEC Overview

Felipe welcomes the team and kicks off with APPEC highlights, touching on bearish crude views and geopolitical undercurrents shaping market sentiment.

(06:23) Challenging the Crude Glut Narrative

Exploring why bearish supply-demand outlooks haven't materialized, with insights on OECD stocks, OPEC exports, and refining bottlenecks driving product tightness.

(14:02) China’s SPR Builds and Dubai Strength

Unpacking China’s strategic petroleum reserve activity and its role in supporting Dubai benchmarks amid open arbitrages.

(19:23) Naphtha Market Outlook

Jorge breaks down NAFTA’s strong rally, turnaround impacts, and long-term visions for positive cracks driven by Asian petrochemical demand.

(23:30) Gasoline Dynamics and Arbitrages

Analyzing gasoline strength in Europe and Singapore, with early signs of rally caps from shifting east-west flows and blending margins.

(33:57) Crude Spreads: Brent-Dubai and WTI-Brent

Neil assesses overvalued Dubai and WTI’s marginal role, questioning if spreads signal a deeper glut amid seasonal pressures.