The team kicks off 2026 by unpacking why flat price looks deceptively calm while physical markets are quietly shifting underneath. The discussion spans Venezuelan crude disruptions and heavy sour dislocations, Saudi OSPs and a softening Asian crude complex, tumbling freight reopening arbitrage routes, and tightening signals in gasoline and light ends. Across crude, gasoline, fuel oil and distillates, the episode focuses on how barrels are being displaced rather than lost, and why geography, logistics and benchmark behaviour matter more than headline noise right now.

Key Takeaways:

• Heavy sour barrels are being reshuffled globally, not removed, and the price signals reflect that
• Saudi OSP cuts and Chinese quota control are weighing on Asian crude benchmarks
• Freight has quietly flipped arbitrage economics across basins
• Gasoline structures have gone from no outlet to every outlet in a matter of weeks
• Fuel oil reacted fast to Venezuela headlines, but the fundamentals may not back it up
• Diesel looks weatherproof for now, despite cold snaps and low stocks

Chapters:

(01:10) Headlines check: Venezuela and geopolitical noise The team assesses why dramatic headlines have barely moved flat price and what really matters for physical flows.

(05:30) Heavy sour crude and displacement risks How Venezuelan barrels, Canadian crude and China’s teapots are reshaping the heavy sour balance without creating shortages.

(07:58) Asian crude under pressure: OSPs, Dubai and China quotas Saudi OSP cuts, a heavy Dubai structure, and why Beijing is tightening control over independent refiners.

(14:05) Gasoline and light ends: from nowhere to everywhere Why EBOB found a floor, how storage and blending economics flipped, and where the next support could come from.

(18:28) Fuel oil reaction versus reality High sulfur fuel oil cracks jump on headlines, but mass balance tells a different story.

(19:31) US diesel and heating oil signals Strong runs, warm weather and resupply flows keep distillates grounded despite tight regional stocks.

(21:02) What the desk is watching next Key benchmarks, spreads and regions to watch as geopolitics continues to test market conviction.

In the final episode of the year, the team breaks down the key macro and geopolitical drivers shaping Q1 2026 and what they mean for the physical barrel. They cut through Venezuela and Ukraine headlines, softening economic signals, and growing oversupply concerns, before moving product by product: distillates enter Q1 on a tighter footing, naphtha remains volatile but structurally supported by East West pull, gasoline shifts from European tightness into contango, and crude emerges as the core problem market unless headlines force a reset.

📚 Chapters

(01:27) Headlines: Venezuela, Ukraine, Europe, and softening data Enforcement risk, sanctions talk, and growth signals collide, with a debate on what actually moves price versus what fades.

(10:11) Distillates: 2025 rewind and Q1 diesel and jet outlook A volatile year in diesel and jet, then a constructive Q1 case built around stocks, winter risk, and supply constraints.

(16:41) Naphtha: two halves of 2025 and why East West stays central From early year strength to late year reshuffling, plus the structural demand pulls and key risks for Q1.

(25:00) Gasoline: Europe’s shift from tightness to contango A year of tightening supply then returning barrels, with attention on transatlantic flow signals and refinery reliability.

(31:20) Crude: oversupply, structure, and what could force a pivot Why balances imply pricing to store, how diffs and structure may adjust, and the potential rebalancing mechanisms to watch.

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team breaks down the biggest questions shaping next year’s crude, margins, and demand outlook - and what traders should be preparing for now.

Key Takeaways:

> What is the outlook for Chinese crude imports?

> Can margins deflate or is spare capacity too tight?

> Can demand surprise to the upside?

> What do key producers do next year and how quickly can the long balance be cut down?

Chapters:

(01:35) Headlines: Tanker Seizure & Sanctions Reality Check

A breakdown of the Venezuela tanker seizure, the limited supply impact, and why the market keeps fading US sanctions risk.

(07:13) China in 2026: Imports, SPR Strategy & Demand Shift

A concise look at China’s crude demand trends, EV substitution, and whether stockbuilding could intensify if flat price falls.

(14:38) Gasoline & Fuel Oil: Seasonal Builds and Feedstock Signals

The team wraps product markets with U.S. winter gasoline builds, ARA balance, WAF flows, and fuel oil’s low-sulphur strength vs high-sulphur softness.

In this episode, the team breaks down an unusually long crude market, muted price reactions to geopolitical risk, and what shifting tone from OPEC’s latest OSPs might signal for 2025. They dig into Venezuela’s political volatility and what any supply hit would really mean for global flows, alongside a US production surge driven by the Permian and Gulf of Mexico. The conversation then moves into products, where gasoline and naphtha markets show sharp regional divergences, softening cracks, and some surprising Atlantic/Asia ARB developments - painting a picture of a market well-supplied in crude but still tight and reactive in key product hubs.

Chapters

(02:17) Headlines: Ukraine, CPC attack, and geopolitical fog Why crude barely reacted to escalating infrastructure attacks — and what this says about global length.

(07:33) Venezuela, Trump, and global crude flows The team unpacks political threats, supply risk, and how China and US refiners would adapt.

(11:19) US supply surge and shale resilience Record output, surprising Permian growth, and what flat rig counts reveal about producer behaviour.

(16:09) European gasoline softness and the shift to LR2s How freight, parcel size, and WAF flows are reshaping gasoline economics.

(18:50) Gasoline: PADD 1 vs PADD 3 diverging realities Why the US East Coast draws aren’t moving arbs — and what exporters are signalling instead

(25:01) US crude supply surge and WTI dynamics

Record Permian output, Delaware Basin growth, and why flat rigs aren’t slowing production.

How these shifts affect WTI pricing and export potential.

(34:16) Middle distillates

Regional tightness, seasonal demand, and arbitrage flows shaping market opportunities.

Neil, Phil, and James unpack a week where headline noise around a possible Ukraine peace deal clashes with still tight product markets and a supposedly long crude balance. They explore why prompt Brent spreads are so firm despite talk of a glut, dig into how gasoline and other light ends moved from extreme tightness toward something more normal, and then switch to diesel and jet to look at Q1 arbs, low stocks, and how headline risk is shaping trade calls. The team closes with a look at softer physical crude premiums, US crude exports and builds, and a quickfire tour of naphtha and fuel oil and what they might mean for refining margins into early next year.

📚 Chapters,

(00:46) Headlines and Ukraine peace talks Neil and Phil walk through the confusion around Ukraine peace plans, what different outcomes could mean for sanctions, and how that might hit crude, products, freight, and paper spreads.

(06:32) Gasoline and light ends after peak tightness Phil explains how ARA gasoline went from extreme tightness toward something more normal, what barge diffs, arbs, and Singapore strength are telling us, and why he is leaning more cautious on Jan–Feb spreads.

(14:57) Middle distillates, jet, and Q1 arbs James recaps how diesel and jet traded into expiry, then looks ahead to Q1 with closed US and Asian arbs into Europe, low stocks, and why he still prefers a bullish stance on ICE gasoil and regrades.

(23:39) Crude balances and the missing glut Neil reviews softer physical premiums in WAF, the AG, and the North Sea, reassesses his US crude build call, and asks whether we are finally starting to see more OECD barrels build rather than just sanctioned crude.

(28:36) Quickfire: naphtha and fuel oil The pod wraps with a quickfire update on rich naphtha East West spreads, strong arbs to the East, and a weak fuel oil complex that is starting to drag on simple refining margins and could matter for crude and clean products.

In this week’s episode, Neil steps in as host as the team unpacks a chaotic stretch in the oil market - from Russian export disruptions and the uncertain trajectory of US sanctions to a diesel market that has gone ballistic on genuine physical tightness. They explore shifts across crude grades, including North Sea softness, WAF heaviness, and surprising crude compatibility issues triggered by the Al-Zour outage. Light-ends remain volatile, gasoline premiums surge despite weak arb signals, and NGLs pile up in the US, painting a complex picture of a market where fundamentals and fear are colliding in unexpected ways.

This episode breaks down a week of tightening global oil product markets - from Saudi Arabia’s surprising crude allocations and renewed sanctions turbulence to refinery capacity constraints dominating trader chatter. The team dissects what’s behind surging distillate spreads, gasoline’s structural strength, and the interplay between arbitrage flows, refining runs, and global inventories heading into winter. With volatility rising across barrels, the discussion zeroes in on what could cool - or further inflame - product cracks as maintenance winds down.

Key Takeaways:

• Why Saudi’s lower-than-expected December allocations to China raised eyebrows
• The latest sanctions snarl — and what it means for Russian crude flows and European refineries
• Distillate spreads hit 2022-style highs: are refiners running hard enough to meet demand?
• West Africa’s gasoline pull tightening global balances
• Arbitrage routes reshaping between US Gulf, Europe, and Asia
• The refinery capacity story everyone’s suddenly talking about

Chapters:

(00:55) Market Setup & Saudi Surprises Rachel and Phil kick off with the week’s headlines — Saudi allocations to China, sanctions fallout, and signs of refinery tightness ahead.

(04:31) Distillate Spreads on Fire James explains the surge in gasoil cracks, East-West shifts, and why refiners might struggle to keep up with diesel demand.

(09:40) Gasoline Strength & Atlantic Arbs Jorge digs into record-high gasoline cracks, West Africa’s pull, and how tight US and European stocks are reshaping trade routes.

(16:00) Naphtha Market Round-Up

Asian premiums rise as sanctions squeeze Russian supply — and backwardation keeps the East-West structure historically strong.

(18:07) Crude, Fuel Oil & Refinery Bottlenecks Phil wraps up with crude market quirks, weak low-sulfur resid, and the broader refinery capacity story driving everything from octane to VGO.

(23:21) Outlook & Sign-Off The team shares what they’re watching next - refinery restarts, inventories, and how the market resets heading into year-end.

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Rachel, Neil, and June dissect the current crude oil landscape - from easing sanctions anxiety and shifting Chinese buying patterns to the tug-of-war between term and spot contracts. They dive into the changing dynamics of Russian crude flows, China’s strategic reserve buildout, OPEC’s cautious moves, and a freight market on fire, painting a picture of a market that’s steadying after turbulence but far from dull.

Key Takeaways:

> Have we passed “peak fear” on sanctions? > Why Chinese refiners should lock in more term barrels. > Freight rates surge: is the VLCC boom here to stay? > Refining margins skyrocketing - how long can it last? Chapters:

(00:39) Peak Fear and the Russian Barrel Neil argues the market’s past “peak fear” — Russian flows continue, and sanctions are being absorbed rather than biting.

(02:30) India & China: Mixed Signals on Buying Conflicting headlines, shifting optics, and why oil “always finds a way.”

(09:01) AG Market Cools — Term vs Spot With ample supply and volatility, Chinese refiners rethink how much crude to lock in for 2026.

(12:14) China’s SPR Buildout June breaks down China’s storage expansion — what 169 million barrels of new capacity could mean for demand.

(16:37) Freight Firestorm VLCC rates surge again, shutting East–West arbs and reshaping crude differentials.

(21:00) Saudi OSPs & The Price Sweetener Saudi price cuts for Asia hint at a push to secure term deals — and pressure on AG spot markets.

(19:03) The Rest of the Barrel: Products & Margins From naphtha to diesel, Neil and June unpack refining margins, freight, and where cracks might finally weaken.