James Noel-Beswick hosts Nikolas Plonski and Jorge Molinero as Iran-US escalation, Houthi attacks on Mokka and Russian refinery strikes push Brent through $100. They cover record US diesel margins, a widening TI-Brent, gasoline strength in Singapore, an LPG price spike, and a split CPP freight market. Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3

Chapters:

(00:42) Headlines: Iran, Hormuz and the road to $100 Brent Tanker strikes, Houthi advances and a widening danger zone push Brent through the century mark in eight sessions.

(06:16) Crude: WAF and South America fill the Hormuz gap WAF, Brazilian and Argentinian grades price into Asia as AG flows shrink; trade calls short WTI-Brent, long Q1 Dubai miles.

(09:52) US products: distillate and gasoline hit record highs Managed money net length in RBOB and heating oil reaches multi-year highs as US retail diesel prints an all-time high.

(19:10) Middle distillates: Singapore diesel near records, jet stays bearish European and Singapore diesel cracks surge on Russian outages while jet regrades slip as aviation demand fades.

(22:34) Gasoline and naphtha: record East-West and an LPG shock Singapore 92 rallies, naphtha East-West hits a seasonal record and Aramco's OSP hike sends LPG and pet-chem margins swinging.

(30:15) Freight: a split CPP market and tight VLCCs East of Suez tonnage runs 50% below average while the US Gulf list balloons; VLCC and TD20 markets stay bullish.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, June Goh and Michael Ryan unpack the potential US diesel export ban, the Saudi pipeline attack and Russian refinery strikes reshaping crude flows. June covers the diesel, gasoline and crude fallout if the ban lands, while Michael maps the freight rush already underway on TC14 and VLCCs. Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3

Chapters:

(00:31) Trump's diesel ban threat: the backdrop: Trump backs a full or partial US diesel export ban; midterms, low stocks and Hormuz disruption drive the panic.

(03:09) Russia strikes and Saudi's pipeline scramble: Ukrainian drones knock out Russian refineries as Aramco reroutes 14 million barrels after an Iraq pipeline attack.

(09:51) HOGO whiplash and the diesel ban math: October Hogo swaps swing violently as June maps the price path if a 90 day export ban hits.

(13:49) Freight scramble: TC14, MRs and the LR2 dirty trade: Michael on the rush to fix diesel cargoes, TC14 risk, and MRs turning dirty if US exports stop.

(22:14) Fuel oil, refining margins and China's holiday lull: June and Hoa on high sulfur fuel support, razor thin refining margins and China's Golden Week pullback.

(29:34) Gasoline's own diesel story: ARA undercuts the Gulf Coast, TC2 rallies and East-West Q4/Q1 spreads look primed for a repeat.

Host June Goh welcomes Sparta colleagues James Noel-Beswick and Jorge Molinero to unpack the diesel crisis: why global stocks have hit 10-year lows, how geopolitics and refinery outages are compounding the squeeze, and where traders should look to position next.

Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3

Chapters:

(03:59) Red Diesel and the US Response: Washington explores red diesel sales and fuel tax cuts as diesel prices hit $6 a gallon. EU pressure intensifies as the White House threatens export bans.

(04:00) Middle East Flows and Supply Reality: Saudi East-West pipeline back online, but production still far below capacity. Global crude rebounding, but refined products remain dangerously tight.

(06:35) China's Policy Pivot: Crude import quotas flat. Product exports suspended. The refinery outage crisis spreads—India's MRPL fires, potential strikes at US Gulf refineries.

(08:47) Light Distillates and Freight Gasoline stocks at 12-year lows. Naphtha weakness, but gasoline holding firm. LPG tight. Freight—specifically TC5 from Europe—up 65% in one month.

(15:38) The Diesel Armageddon: Singapore diesel cracks at seasonal highs. All regular diesel arbs into Singapore closed. European pricing bucking the trend. Heating oil cracks exploding.

(20:23) Trade Calls and Crude Outlook: James makes the bull case for Q1 heating oil cracks (at $90 per barrel). June covers the US SPR release and Mars basis under pressure through year-end.