The team kicks off 2026 by unpacking why flat price looks deceptively calm while physical markets are quietly shifting underneath. The discussion spans Venezuelan crude disruptions and heavy sour dislocations, Saudi OSPs and a softening Asian crude complex, tumbling freight reopening arbitrage routes, and tightening signals in gasoline and light ends. Across crude, gasoline, fuel oil and distillates, the episode focuses on how barrels are being displaced rather than lost, and why geography, logistics and benchmark behaviour matter more than headline noise right now.

Key Takeaways:

• Heavy sour barrels are being reshuffled globally, not removed, and the price signals reflect that
• Saudi OSP cuts and Chinese quota control are weighing on Asian crude benchmarks
• Freight has quietly flipped arbitrage economics across basins
• Gasoline structures have gone from no outlet to every outlet in a matter of weeks
• Fuel oil reacted fast to Venezuela headlines, but the fundamentals may not back it up
• Diesel looks weatherproof for now, despite cold snaps and low stocks

Chapters:

(01:10) Headlines check: Venezuela and geopolitical noise The team assesses why dramatic headlines have barely moved flat price and what really matters for physical flows.

(05:30) Heavy sour crude and displacement risks How Venezuelan barrels, Canadian crude and China’s teapots are reshaping the heavy sour balance without creating shortages.

(07:58) Asian crude under pressure: OSPs, Dubai and China quotas Saudi OSP cuts, a heavy Dubai structure, and why Beijing is tightening control over independent refiners.

(14:05) Gasoline and light ends: from nowhere to everywhere Why EBOB found a floor, how storage and blending economics flipped, and where the next support could come from.

(18:28) Fuel oil reaction versus reality High sulfur fuel oil cracks jump on headlines, but mass balance tells a different story.

(19:31) US diesel and heating oil signals Strong runs, warm weather and resupply flows keep distillates grounded despite tight regional stocks.

(21:02) What the desk is watching next Key benchmarks, spreads and regions to watch as geopolitics continues to test market conviction.

In the final episode of the year, the team breaks down the key macro and geopolitical drivers shaping Q1 2026 and what they mean for the physical barrel. They cut through Venezuela and Ukraine headlines, softening economic signals, and growing oversupply concerns, before moving product by product: distillates enter Q1 on a tighter footing, naphtha remains volatile but structurally supported by East West pull, gasoline shifts from European tightness into contango, and crude emerges as the core problem market unless headlines force a reset.

📚 Chapters

(01:27) Headlines: Venezuela, Ukraine, Europe, and softening data Enforcement risk, sanctions talk, and growth signals collide, with a debate on what actually moves price versus what fades.

(10:11) Distillates: 2025 rewind and Q1 diesel and jet outlook A volatile year in diesel and jet, then a constructive Q1 case built around stocks, winter risk, and supply constraints.

(16:41) Naphtha: two halves of 2025 and why East West stays central From early year strength to late year reshuffling, plus the structural demand pulls and key risks for Q1.

(25:00) Gasoline: Europe’s shift from tightness to contango A year of tightening supply then returning barrels, with attention on transatlantic flow signals and refinery reliability.

(31:20) Crude: oversupply, structure, and what could force a pivot Why balances imply pricing to store, how diffs and structure may adjust, and the potential rebalancing mechanisms to watch.

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team breaks down the biggest questions shaping next year’s crude, margins, and demand outlook - and what traders should be preparing for now.

Key Takeaways:

> What is the outlook for Chinese crude imports?

> Can margins deflate or is spare capacity too tight?

> Can demand surprise to the upside?

> What do key producers do next year and how quickly can the long balance be cut down?

Chapters:

(01:35) Headlines: Tanker Seizure & Sanctions Reality Check

A breakdown of the Venezuela tanker seizure, the limited supply impact, and why the market keeps fading US sanctions risk.

(07:13) China in 2026: Imports, SPR Strategy & Demand Shift

A concise look at China’s crude demand trends, EV substitution, and whether stockbuilding could intensify if flat price falls.

(14:38) Gasoline & Fuel Oil: Seasonal Builds and Feedstock Signals

The team wraps product markets with U.S. winter gasoline builds, ARA balance, WAF flows, and fuel oil’s low-sulphur strength vs high-sulphur softness.