Oil back above $100. The Fed's first rate hike in three years. A 10-year Treasury at its highest yield since 2002. And yet the S&P 500 just set a new record. In our fourth-quarter outlook, Brian Seay, CFA, walks through what the third quarter got right and wrong about our thesis, and how we're positioning portfolios heading into year-end. Brian is candid about where our views missed in Q3 (oil, the Fed, and the timing on inflation) and why the bigger picture hasn't changed: a narrow, AI-driven economy, a soft labor market, and core inflation that should cool as the energy shock fades.

Along the way: what's really moving through the Strait of Hormuz, why diesel's record refining margin matters more than the price of crude, what's driving the dollar, and why bonds at 5% look more attractive than they have in 25 years.

📊 This episode is chart-heavy. Watch here rather than listen so you can follow along.

🔑 A FEW NUMBERS FROM THIS EPISODE

• S&P 500 +2.3% in Q3, but the equal-weighted index fell 1.9%
• S&P 500 forward P/E down from 22.2x in January to 19.1x
• Fed funds raised to 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike since 2023
• 10-year Treasury at 5.3% at quarter-end, highest since 2002
• Diesel refining margin at a record ~$111/barrel in September
• Core CPI 2.6% in September; headline 3.7%
• Municipal bond yields near 4.8%, up from 3.6% in June

Capital Stewards is a fee-only fiduciary adviser in Huntsville, Alabama, serving entrepreneurs, engineers, defense contractors, and retirees across North Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. 🌐 Learn more: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com

Capital Stewards, LLC is registered as an investment advisor in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee . Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

#MarketOutlook #Q4Outlook #Investing #Inflation #FederalReserve #OilPrices #BondYields #EmergingMarkets #FinancialPlanning #Huntsville

"S&P and chill" answers one investment question and quietly skips five others.

I'm Brian Seay, CFA, founding partner of Capital Stewards, a fee-only fiduciary firm in Huntsville, Alabama.

In this episode I make the case that indexing is a good idea — I use index funds for most client assets — but that it is not the same thing as an investment strategy. There are six decisions that determine what your portfolio does over time and the active-versus-passive question is only one.

We cover:

▪️ The six decisions that actually drive long-term outcomes

▪️ What Ibbotson and Kaplan really found about asset allocation (the 90% stat is misquoted constantly)

▪️ Why Norway's trillion-dollar sovereign wealth fund indexes its holdings but staffs its asset allocation decisions

▪️ How concentrated the S&P 500 has become, and what a lost decade would mean if you're near retirement

▪️ What an S&P-only portfolio leaves out: international, small- and mid-cap, real assets, and fixed income

▪️ The dozen active decisions required even if you index every dollar ▪️ The strongest argument against diversification — and why the benchmark you compare against decides the verdict

⏱️ CHAPTERS

00:00 — "S&P and chill": the default assumption

01:32 — Why this isn't an anti-index argument

02:17 — The six decisions, in the right order

02:34 — What asset allocation really explains

06:02 — What Norway does with a trillion dollars

07:11 — What you actually own in the S&P 500 00:00 — The lost-decade problem near retirement

09:31 — What an S&P-only portfolio leaves out

12:45 — Why index investing still requires active decisions

18:52 — Three questions to ask about your portfolio

🔗 LINKS Read the full article: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/learn/investing-is-never-passive

Schedule a conversation: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startaconversation

Website: https://thecapitalstewards.com

📌 ABOUT CAPITAL STEWARDS Capital Stewards is a fee-only fiduciary registered investment adviser based in Huntsville, Alabama, working with engineers, defense professionals, business owners, and retirees across North Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. Flat-fee pricing. No commissions. No product sales.

⚠️ DISCLOSURE This video is for educational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Indices referenced are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Capital Stewards is a registered investment adviser; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

#PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #AssetAllocation #SP500 #RetirementPlanning #FeeOnly #Fiduciary #HuntsvilleAL ##PortfolioManagement

2026 Mid-Year Outlook: AI Bubble? Inflation, the New Fed Chair & Where to Invest Now

Markets are higher but volatile — a nearly 20% round trip in the first half of 2026. In this mid-year outlook, Brian Seay, CFA, walks through the biggest questions clients are asking this summer: Is the AI rally a bubble? Are you too concentrated in tech? Where is inflation headed as oil retreats? And what does new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh mean for your portfolio?

Brian lays out the economic backdrop — slow, narrow, AI-driven growth — then talks through positioning across U.S. stocks, small caps, international and emerging markets, bonds, gold, and EM debt, closing with practical steps for the second half.

📊 There are a lot of charts in this one — watch here rather than listen so you can follow along.

Capital Stewards is a fee-only fiduciary registered investment adviser in Huntsville, Alabama, serving entrepreneurs, engineers, defense contractors, and retirees across North Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee.

🌐 Learn more: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com

🔔 Subscribe for quarterly outlooks and market commentary.

This video is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Views are as of the recording date and subject to change. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

#MidYearOutlook #MarketOutlook2026 #Investing #AIStocks #EmergingMarkets #Inflation #FederalReserve #GoldInvesting #FinancialPlanning #Huntsville

SpaceX is set to begin trading this Friday. OpenAI formally kicked off its IPO process this week. Anthropic filed its S-1 just days ago. The summer of 2026 may be the most consequential IPO season in a generation — and it's happening right now.

In this episode, Brian Seay breaks down what every investor should know before buying a share in any of these three companies.

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📌 WHAT WE COVER

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▶ How IPOs actually work — including why most retail investors never get shares at the price they see in the headlines

▶ SpaceX: $1.77 trillion valuation, $4.9 billion net loss — is it worth it? (We do the math)

▶ OpenAI: $20B in revenue, projecting $74B in losses by 2028 — what does the path to profitability look like?

▶ Anthropic: The enterprise AI bet with the clearest path to cash flow

▶ What history teaches us — from Amazon's "Amazon.bomb" years to Meta's catastrophic IPO day

▶ The five questions every investor should answer before putting money to work

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🔗 RESOURCES & LINKS

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📄 Read the full article: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/learn/spacex-openai-and-anthropic-are-going-publicheres-what-every-investor-should-know-before-buying-a-share

📅 Schedule a conversation: thecapitalstewards.com

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📬 STAY CONNECTED

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Subscribe for regular updates on investing, retirement planning, and wealth management — built around the principle that good stewardship means being intentional with every financial decision.

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⚠️ DISCLOSURE

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This video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

You've spent years building something meaningful. The real question is: who's going to carry it forward? In Part 2 of our multigenerational wealth series, Capital Stewards founder Brian Seay tackles the two questions that keep wealth-building families up at night — how do you raise children who are prepared to steward what you've built, and how do you actually transfer it without leaving hundreds of thousands of dollars on the table? This episode goes deep on both the human side and the technical side of generational wealth transfer. In this episode:

• Why the families who "spoil" their kids are the ones who never talked about money
• What the research actually says about the next generation's attitude toward family wealth
• Three ways to actively engage your kids in real financial decisions — starting earlier than you think
• Why charitable giving is one of the most powerful antidotes to entitlement
• When (and how) to open the books with your heirs
• 529 plans as a wealth transfer tool — including the new Roth IRA rollover rules
• Annual exclusion gifting: why consistency turns a modest strategy into a million-dollar transfer
• The step-up in cost basis explained — and why it could save your family hundreds of thousands in taxes
• Donor Advised Funds: how to give like a family foundation without running one
• Why multigenerational families should invest like an endowment, not like a retiree

📖 Read the full blog series at thecapitalstewards.com

📅 Ready to have a real conversation about your family's financial future? Schedule a call at thecapitalstewards.com

Capital Stewards is a fiduciary wealth management firm serving families in Huntsville, Alabama and across Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice.

Most people spend their entire careers optimizing for income. The families building generational wealth are doing something fundamentally different.

Part 1 of our series on multigenerational wealth breaks down the six foundational principles behind building wealth that actually lasts — not the version you see on social media, but the version that quietly plays out over decades in real families.

In this episode:

- Why high income rarely becomes generational wealth — and what to do instead

- Building the Wedge: the savings mindset shift that changes everything

- How Warren Buffett uses debt strategically (and what families can learn from it)

- Business vs. real estate: which asset to target first, and why you might buy rather than start

- When to concentrate your risk — and when to start diversifying

- The role of patience in wealth building (and why the timeline is longer than you think)

📖 Read the full blog series at thecapitalstewards.com

📅 Ready to talk about your family's wealth journey? Schedule a conversation at thecapitalstewards.com

Capital Stewards is a fiduciary wealth management firm serving families in Huntsville, Alabama and across Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee.

This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice.

Timestamps

00:00 — Intro: Private Jets & Social Media

01:08 — What multigenerational wealth actually means

03:52 — Principle 1: Assets over income

05:22 — Principle 2: Building the Wedge

08:14 — Principle 3: Debt as a strategic tool

10:32 — Principle 4: Businesses and real estate

15:14 — Principle 5: Diversifying over time

15:22 — Principle 6: The role of patience

16:36 — Series recap + tease for Part 2

In this episode, we break down the complex economic landscape of Q2 2026, navigating the aftermath of the conflict in Iran and the resulting impact on global markets. While a recent ceasefire has brought some stability, investors are left with critical questions regarding oil prices, the "Mag Seven" tech stocks, and a labor market that may be showing signs of fatigue.We explore whether the recent uptick in economic data is a sustainable recovery or a "data mirage" driven by inventory rebuilding and backlogs. Whether you are a long-term investor or looking for specific insights into gold, bonds, or international markets, this comprehensive guide provides the data-driven perspective you need to stay anchored in an uncertain environment.

📊 Want to see the data? This episode features numerous charts detailing GDP, ISM surveys, and asset performance. Consider watching the full video to follow along with the visual analysis

00:00 – Intro & What's Ahead

02:16 — Market Recap: S&P 500, International Stocks, Bonds & Gold

03:18 — Long-Term Returns: Why History Favors Patient Investors

05:29 — U.S. Economic Update: GDP, ISM Manufacturing & Services Data

07:39 — The K-Shaped Economy: Consumer Spending, Wages & Savings

09:29 — Labor Market: Job Creation, Wage Growth & Warning Signs

12:05 — Iran War & Ceasefire: Oil Prices, Strait of Hormuz & What's Next

14:29 — Inflation Outlook: PCE, Tariffs, Housing & Services

15:50 — Stock Market Outlook: Why Global Diversification Still Matters

17:28 — Diversification & Income Outlook : Gold, Bonds & Fixed Income

19:21 — Private Credit: Risks & Reality Check

20:47 — Real Estate Opportunities in 2026

21:35 — Practical Steps for Investors Right Now

🔗 Learn more about Capital Stewards:

Website: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com

Start a Conversation: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation

Capital Stewards is a fee-only fiduciary financial advisory firm based in Huntsville, Alabama, helping clients with retirement planning, investment management and tax strategies.

This content is for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance is no assurance of future results.

Is healthcare your retirement "blind spot"?

In 2026, the landscape of retirement healthcare has fundamentally changed. With Medicare Part B premiums crossing $200 for the first time and new legislative shifts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), failing to plan is planning to overpay.

In this episode of the Capital Stewards Podcast, we break down the exact strategies you need to protect your portfolio from rising medical costs and "stealth taxes".

💡 What You’ll Learn:

- The 24-Month Window

- The ACA "Cost Cliff"

- The Federal Government Employee & Military Strategy

- Long-Term Care Realities

- Income Engineering

About Capital Stewards: We are a fee-only fiduciary advisor based in Huntsville, AL, dedicated to helping families navigate complex financial transitions with transparency and expertise.

Have Questions? Start a Conversation with Us Here: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation #retirementplanning

#Medicare2026 #HealthcareCosts #FinancialAdvisorHuntsville #CapitalStewards #TRICARE #FEHB #LongTermCare

Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.