Oil back above $100. The Fed's first rate hike in three years. A 10-year Treasury at its highest yield since 2002. And yet the S&P 500 just set a new record. In our fourth-quarter outlook, Brian Seay, CFA, walks through what the third quarter got right and wrong about our thesis, and how we're positioning portfolios heading into year-end. Brian is candid about where our views missed in Q3 (oil, the Fed, and the timing on inflation) and why the bigger picture hasn't changed: a narrow, AI-driven economy, a soft labor market, and core inflation that should cool as the energy shock fades.

Along the way: what's really moving through the Strait of Hormuz, why diesel's record refining margin matters more than the price of crude, what's driving the dollar, and why bonds at 5% look more attractive than they have in 25 years.

📊 This episode is chart-heavy. Watch here rather than listen so you can follow along.

🔑 A FEW NUMBERS FROM THIS EPISODE

• S&P 500 +2.3% in Q3, but the equal-weighted index fell 1.9%
• S&P 500 forward P/E down from 22.2x in January to 19.1x
• Fed funds raised to 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike since 2023
• 10-year Treasury at 5.3% at quarter-end, highest since 2002
• Diesel refining margin at a record ~$111/barrel in September
• Core CPI 2.6% in September; headline 3.7%
• Municipal bond yields near 4.8%, up from 3.6% in June

Capital Stewards is a fee-only fiduciary adviser in Huntsville, Alabama, serving entrepreneurs, engineers, defense contractors, and retirees across North Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. 🌐 Learn more: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com

Capital Stewards, LLC is registered as an investment advisor in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee . Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.

#MarketOutlook #Q4Outlook #Investing #Inflation #FederalReserve #OilPrices #BondYields #EmergingMarkets #FinancialPlanning #Huntsville

"S&P and chill" answers one investment question and quietly skips five others.

I'm Brian Seay, CFA, founding partner of Capital Stewards, a fee-only fiduciary firm in Huntsville, Alabama.

In this episode I make the case that indexing is a good idea — I use index funds for most client assets — but that it is not the same thing as an investment strategy. There are six decisions that determine what your portfolio does over time and the active-versus-passive question is only one.

We cover:

▪️ The six decisions that actually drive long-term outcomes

▪️ What Ibbotson and Kaplan really found about asset allocation (the 90% stat is misquoted constantly)

▪️ Why Norway's trillion-dollar sovereign wealth fund indexes its holdings but staffs its asset allocation decisions

▪️ How concentrated the S&P 500 has become, and what a lost decade would mean if you're near retirement

▪️ What an S&P-only portfolio leaves out: international, small- and mid-cap, real assets, and fixed income

▪️ The dozen active decisions required even if you index every dollar ▪️ The strongest argument against diversification — and why the benchmark you compare against decides the verdict

⏱️ CHAPTERS

00:00 — "S&P and chill": the default assumption

01:32 — Why this isn't an anti-index argument

02:17 — The six decisions, in the right order

02:34 — What asset allocation really explains

06:02 — What Norway does with a trillion dollars

07:11 — What you actually own in the S&P 500 00:00 — The lost-decade problem near retirement

09:31 — What an S&P-only portfolio leaves out

12:45 — Why index investing still requires active decisions

18:52 — Three questions to ask about your portfolio

🔗 LINKS Read the full article: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/learn/investing-is-never-passive

Schedule a conversation: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startaconversation

Website: https://thecapitalstewards.com

📌 ABOUT CAPITAL STEWARDS Capital Stewards is a fee-only fiduciary registered investment adviser based in Huntsville, Alabama, working with engineers, defense professionals, business owners, and retirees across North Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. Flat-fee pricing. No commissions. No product sales.

⚠️ DISCLOSURE This video is for educational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Indices referenced are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Capital Stewards is a registered investment adviser; registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

#PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #AssetAllocation #SP500 #RetirementPlanning #FeeOnly #Fiduciary #HuntsvilleAL ##PortfolioManagement

2026 Mid-Year Outlook: AI Bubble? Inflation, the New Fed Chair & Where to Invest Now

Markets are higher but volatile — a nearly 20% round trip in the first half of 2026. In this mid-year outlook, Brian Seay, CFA, walks through the biggest questions clients are asking this summer: Is the AI rally a bubble? Are you too concentrated in tech? Where is inflation headed as oil retreats? And what does new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh mean for your portfolio?

Brian lays out the economic backdrop — slow, narrow, AI-driven growth — then talks through positioning across U.S. stocks, small caps, international and emerging markets, bonds, gold, and EM debt, closing with practical steps for the second half.

📊 There are a lot of charts in this one — watch here rather than listen so you can follow along.

Capital Stewards is a fee-only fiduciary registered investment adviser in Huntsville, Alabama, serving entrepreneurs, engineers, defense contractors, and retirees across North Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee.

🌐 Learn more: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com

🔔 Subscribe for quarterly outlooks and market commentary.

This video is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Views are as of the recording date and subject to change. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

#MidYearOutlook #MarketOutlook2026 #Investing #AIStocks #EmergingMarkets #Inflation #FederalReserve #GoldInvesting #FinancialPlanning #Huntsville