The Rock City Story:

• 1936: Garnet Carter needed to advertise his tourist attraction on Lookout Mountain
• During the Depression, couldn't afford traditional advertising
• Hired painter Clark Byer to paint "See Rock City" on 900 barns across 19 states
• Offered free barn painting in exchange for advertising space
• Win-win: farmers got painted barns, tickets, and branded items
• Rock City stayed packed for 30+ years

Modern Examples:

• Buc-ee's billboards: "537 miles," "325 miles," "Next exit"
• Messages repeat until they win

The Power of Repetition:

• Road trippers ignored first few "See Rock City" signs
• By the third or fourth, kids start asking
• By fifth or tenth, people promise to stop
• Repetition breaks through busy lives

Messaging Lesson:

• We get tired of saying same lines before they break through to voters
• Voters are busy with work, family, daily life
• Can't expect them to remember budget messages after hearing once

Application:

• Find your "See Rock City" message
• Example: "Shapiro's got a Binge Spending Problem, the largest spending increase in PA history"
• Don't need voters to remember dozens of numbers
• Repeat one or two phrases over and over
• When you're sick of saying it, people are finally paying attention

Bottom Line: Think about what you'd paint on a barn - keep it short, simple, and repeat until you're sick of hearing it.

For more tips on effective message repetition, refer to the accompanying one-page PDF.

Winning Edge gives you the tools you need to lead and influence in the political and policy arenas. Every other week, Winning Edge releases short (approximately 5-minute) spots—or “snacks”—focused on one of four areas: fundraising, media, policy, or persuasion.

For more, visit our website: www.thecommonwealthpartners.com

"Being Popular Doesn't Balance the Budget":

The Challenge:

• Governor Josh Shapiro positions himself as moderate but governs as liberal
• Most popular politician in PA due to political talent and millions spent on public persona
• Voters don't like his policies, especially the budget
• Largest proposed budget in PA history: over $50 billion with $5 billion deficit

The Three-Step Approach: Help voters "not be wrong" by giving them a path to feel right again

1. Respect Their Thinking

Acknowledge why they supported the politician

• Example: "A lot of Pennsylvanians voted for Shapiro because he pretended he was a moderate."

2. Highlight What's Changed

• Show how actions don't match campaign promises
• Example: "He said he supported school choice, tax cuts, and pro-business policies. But that's not how he's governed."

3. Show How They Can Be Right Again

Make it easy to update their view

• Example: "Voters trusted Shapiro to lead as a business-minded moderate and he let them down."

Key Message:

Being likable doesn't equal leadership
"Being a nice guy doesn't balance the budget"
Eventually, voters question ability to get the job done

Bottom Line: Don't try to prove voters wrong - help them stay right by respecting their thinking, highlighting changes, and showing them a path forward.

For more tips on messaging around popular politicians with unpopular policies, refer to the accompanying one-page PDF.

Winning Edge gives you the tools you need to lead and influence in the political and policy arenas. Every other week, Winning Edge releases short (approximately 5-minute) spots—or “snacks”—focused on one of four areas: fundraising, media, policy, or persuasion.

For more, visit our website: www.thecommonwealthpartners.com

Historical Context:

• 1965: Darrell Huff testified before U.S. Senate about misleading statistics
• Author of "How to Lie with Statistics" - best-selling statistics book ever
• Secret: Tobacco industry paid him to discredit smoking-cancer studies
• Was working on unpublished book: "How to Lie with Smoking Statistics"

Three Quick Tests to Spot Misleading Stats:

1. The Zoom Test

• Ask: How different would this number look if I zoomed in or out?
• Consider different time frames, geography, or demographics
• Would the trend hold with more context?

2. The Crop Test

• Ask: What's missing from the frame?
• What's been left out that would change your perspective?
• Look for omitted context or qualifying information

3. The Source Test

• Ask: Who took the picture?
• Check incentives of data collectors/presenters
• Be wary when same entity collects and presents data

Real Example - Shapiro Administration Claim:

• Claim: "300,000 Pennsylvanians could lose health coverage"
• Zoom Test: Used highest possible estimate
• Crop Test: Includes healthy adults who could work 20 hours/week will not to keep their benefits; includes ineligible people removed from Medicaid
• Source Test: Data from administration supporting their own argument

Final Gut Check:

• Ask: Do I want this data to be true?
• We're most easily fooled when numbers confirm our hopes
• Be especially skeptical of data that supports what you already believe

Bottom Line: You can't stop people from twisting numbers, but you can prevent them from tricking you.

Sources: U.S. Senate Commerce Committee Hearings (1965); Reinhart, Alex. "Huff and Puff" Significance (2014)

For more tips on evaluating statistical claims, refer to the accompanying one-page PDF.

Winning Edge gives you the tools you need to lead and influence in the political and policy arenas. Every other week, Winning Edge releases short (approximately 5-minute) spots—or “snacks”—focused on one of four areas: fundraising, media, policy, or persuasion.

For more, visit our website: www.thecommonwealthpartners.com

• Pennsylvania's population: grown only 10% in 50 years
• State government budget: increased over 40% in just 5 years
• Governor Shapiro's budget: crosses $50 billion mark for first time in history

• Big budget numbers are hard for voters to understand
• Few people grasp the difference between millions and billions
• Need to make numbers relatable and memorable

• Treat unfamiliar numbers like a foreign language
• Example: "The Shapiro budget is over $50 billion. To put that in perspective, that's a 40% increase in just five years."

• People remember round numbers better
• Example: "This is the first time Pennsylvania's budget has crossed $50 billion."

• Translate growth into something voters can feel
• Example: "Five years ago, the state spent about $3,000 per resident. Today, it's nearly $4,000. That's an extra $1,000 per person, without most families seeing any direct benefit."

• Pick a single number and tell a memorable story
• Focus on the feeling you want to create
• Stories stick longer than spreadsheets

Winning Edge gives you the tools you need to lead and influence in the political and policy arenas. Every other week, Winning Edge releases short (approximately 5-minute) spots—or “snacks”—focused on one of four areas: fundraising, media, policy, or persuasion.

For more, visit our website: www.thecommonwealthpartners.com

9 Insights from the Latest PA Polling:

Governor Shapiro's Standing:

• 58% favorable, 24% unfavorable rating personally
• But voters don't like his budget

9 Key Poll Insights:

1. Cautious Optimism About PA's Direction

• 47% say state is on right track
• 39% say wrong track

2. Don't Touch the Rainy-Day Fund

• 66% call it fiscally irresponsible to drain fund for budget balancing
• Only 22% think raiding the fund is good idea

3. Stop Spending More Than You Take In

• 71% oppose approving budget without sustainable funding plan
• Just 18% support spending beyond our means

4. No Tax Hikes

• 68% want legislators to reject backdoor tax hikes like payroll taxes and energy fees

5. Transit Bailouts are a Bust

• 58% oppose Philadelphia transit bailout
• Only 33% support

6. Fix the Roads First

• 69% want focus on fixing roads and bridges before tax increases or new mass transit spending

7. Protect Safety Net with Work Requirements

• 78% say able-bodied adults must work, job-hunt, or train for welfare benefits
• Only 17% disagree

8. Fund Schools Fairly and Give Parents Choice

• 63% say if well-funded schools losing students get more tax dollars, parents in failing schools should get same funds to choose better options

9. No Corporate Subsidies, Yes to Tax Cuts

• 62% want to eliminate corporate handouts for broad-based tax relief
• Voters think Shapiro's corporate giveaways without small business/family tax relief is backward

Bottom Line: Voters want responsible government with spending restraint, work requirements, school choice, and fixing priorities with existing money.

For complete polling data and analysis, refer to the accompanying one-page PDF.

Winning Edge gives you the tools you need to lead and influence in the political and policy arenas. Every other week, Winning Edge releases short (approximately 5-minute) spots—or “snacks”—focused on one of four areas: fundraising, media, policy, or persuasion.

For more, visit our website: www.thecommonwealthpartners.com

Historical Context:

• 1996: President Bill Clinton signed welfare reform despite internal opposition
• Signed due to political reality that the public wanted reform

Current Poll Results (Communication Concepts, May 31-June 3, 2025):

• Over 620 Pennsylvanians surveyed
• Strong support for welfare reform measures

Key Poll Numbers:

Put in the Work:

• 78% support welfare work requirements for able-bodied adults
• Only 17% disagree

Clock Is Ticking:

• 64% support restoring time limits on cash assistance
• 26% oppose

More Welfare-to-Work:

• 82% support expanding job training and placement programs
• Just 11% oppose

Protect the Safety Net:

• 77% support stricter eligibility checks for welfare
• 16% disagree

Work Beats Deadlines:

• When forced to choose: 58% prioritize welfare work requirements over time limits
• 25% prefer stand-alone time limits

Messaging Framework:

• "Work should be part of the deal"
• "Welfare was never meant to be forever"
• "Let's expand what works"
• "Protecting welfare for those who need it"

Bottom Line: Welfare reform works politically and practically. It’s compassionate, popular, and focused on rewarding effort.

For more polling data and messaging guidance, refer to the accompanying one-page PDF.

Winning Edge gives you the tools you need to lead and influence in the political and policy arenas. Every other week, Winning Edge releases short (approximately 5-minute) spots—or “snacks”—focused on one of four areas: fundraising, media, policy, or persuasion.

For more, visit our website: www.thecommonwealthpartners.com

The Peter Marsh Story - British Rail (1977):

• Ad executive faced challenge of marketing failing British Rail system
• Trains didn't run on time, ridership falling, public hated experience
• Marsh staged a powerful demonstration for British Rail executives
• Created filthy lobby experience to show them what customers felt
• Won the account by making them experience the problem firsthand
• Led to "Age of the Train" campaign and actual service improvements

Key Lesson:

• No ad campaign can fix a broken product
• To fix problems, go where the work is actually happening
• Experience it firsthand, not through reports or meetings

Modern Application - SEPTA:

• Operating costs up, ridership down (75% of pre-pandemic levels as of March)
• Governor Shapiro wants to redirect $300 million in sales tax revenue for bailout
• Recent safety issues (four people shot on SEPTA bus this month)
• Riders don't feel safe, experience is unreliable

Recommended Action:

• Before approving new funding, experience the service yourself
• Take a ride, walk through stations, wait on platforms
• One hour on the bus reveals more than sanitized reports
• See what riders actually experience

Bottom Line: Throwing money at problems won't fix them - you need to understand the real experience first.

For more tips on effective problem-solving through direct observation, refer to the accompanying one-page PDF.

Winning Edge gives you the tools you need to lead and influence in the political and policy arenas. Every other week, Winning Edge releases short (approximately 5-minute) spots—or “snacks”—focused on one of four areas: fundraising, media, policy, or persuasion.

For more, visit our website: www.thecommonwealthpartners.com

The Power of the Second Story:

• Jimmy Breslin's famous 1963 article about Clifton Pollard, the man who dug President Kennedy's grave
• Breslin focused on a different perspective instead of covering the main story
• This approach creates more memorable, impactful pieces

Examples of Second Stories for Memorial Day:

1. The Last Local Soldier
   • Story of Lance Cpl. Steven A. Rickerson, last Warren County soldier killed in Vietnam
   • 18 years old, killed by hostile fire in September 1969
   • Link to story
2. A Mother's Uncertainty
   • Letter from mother worried about rumor that her five sons were killed in action
   • All five sons served together on the U.S.S. JUNEAU
   • Link to mother's letter
3. Last Letter Home
   • Letter from New Castle soldier to wife before D-Day
   • Hopeful message about taking their 3-year-old daughter to first movie
   • Link to letter

Key Takeaway:

• The second story is quieter but more powerful
• It feels real and personal and is perfect for Memorial Day speeches that need to carry the weight of sacrifice

For more tips on finding compelling second stories for your speeches, refer to the accompanying one-page PDF.

Winning Edge gives you the tools you need to lead and influence in the political and policy arenas. Every other week, Winning Edge releases short (approximately 5-minute) spots—or “snacks”—focused on one of four areas: fundraising, media, policy, or persuasion.

For more, visit our website: www.thecommonwealthpartners.com