The Rock City Story:

• 1936: Garnet Carter needed to advertise his tourist attraction on Lookout Mountain
• During the Depression, couldn't afford traditional advertising
• Hired painter Clark Byer to paint "See Rock City" on 900 barns across 19 states
• Offered free barn painting in exchange for advertising space
• Win-win: farmers got painted barns, tickets, and branded items
• Rock City stayed packed for 30+ years

Modern Examples:

• Buc-ee's billboards: "537 miles," "325 miles," "Next exit"
• Messages repeat until they win

The Power of Repetition:

• Road trippers ignored first few "See Rock City" signs
• By the third or fourth, kids start asking
• By fifth or tenth, people promise to stop
• Repetition breaks through busy lives

Messaging Lesson:

• We get tired of saying same lines before they break through to voters
• Voters are busy with work, family, daily life
• Can't expect them to remember budget messages after hearing once

Application:

• Find your "See Rock City" message
• Example: "Shapiro's got a Binge Spending Problem, the largest spending increase in PA history"
• Don't need voters to remember dozens of numbers
• Repeat one or two phrases over and over
• When you're sick of saying it, people are finally paying attention

Bottom Line: Think about what you'd paint on a barn - keep it short, simple, and repeat until you're sick of hearing it.

For more tips on effective message repetition, refer to the accompanying one-page PDF.

Winning Edge gives you the tools you need to lead and influence in the political and policy arenas. Every other week, Winning Edge releases short (approximately 5-minute) spots—or “snacks”—focused on one of four areas: fundraising, media, policy, or persuasion.

For more, visit our website: www.thecommonwealthpartners.com

"Being Popular Doesn't Balance the Budget":

The Challenge:

• Governor Josh Shapiro positions himself as moderate but governs as liberal
• Most popular politician in PA due to political talent and millions spent on public persona
• Voters don't like his policies, especially the budget
• Largest proposed budget in PA history: over $50 billion with $5 billion deficit

The Three-Step Approach: Help voters "not be wrong" by giving them a path to feel right again

1. Respect Their Thinking

Acknowledge why they supported the politician

• Example: "A lot of Pennsylvanians voted for Shapiro because he pretended he was a moderate."

2. Highlight What's Changed

• Show how actions don't match campaign promises
• Example: "He said he supported school choice, tax cuts, and pro-business policies. But that's not how he's governed."

3. Show How They Can Be Right Again

Make it easy to update their view

• Example: "Voters trusted Shapiro to lead as a business-minded moderate and he let them down."

Key Message:

Being likable doesn't equal leadership
"Being a nice guy doesn't balance the budget"
Eventually, voters question ability to get the job done

Bottom Line: Don't try to prove voters wrong - help them stay right by respecting their thinking, highlighting changes, and showing them a path forward.

For more tips on messaging around popular politicians with unpopular policies, refer to the accompanying one-page PDF.

Winning Edge gives you the tools you need to lead and influence in the political and policy arenas. Every other week, Winning Edge releases short (approximately 5-minute) spots—or “snacks”—focused on one of four areas: fundraising, media, policy, or persuasion.

For more, visit our website: www.thecommonwealthpartners.com

Historical Context:

• 1965: Darrell Huff testified before U.S. Senate about misleading statistics
• Author of "How to Lie with Statistics" - best-selling statistics book ever
• Secret: Tobacco industry paid him to discredit smoking-cancer studies
• Was working on unpublished book: "How to Lie with Smoking Statistics"

Three Quick Tests to Spot Misleading Stats:

1. The Zoom Test

• Ask: How different would this number look if I zoomed in or out?
• Consider different time frames, geography, or demographics
• Would the trend hold with more context?

2. The Crop Test

• Ask: What's missing from the frame?
• What's been left out that would change your perspective?
• Look for omitted context or qualifying information

3. The Source Test

• Ask: Who took the picture?
• Check incentives of data collectors/presenters
• Be wary when same entity collects and presents data

Real Example - Shapiro Administration Claim:

• Claim: "300,000 Pennsylvanians could lose health coverage"
• Zoom Test: Used highest possible estimate
• Crop Test: Includes healthy adults who could work 20 hours/week will not to keep their benefits; includes ineligible people removed from Medicaid
• Source Test: Data from administration supporting their own argument

Final Gut Check:

• Ask: Do I want this data to be true?
• We're most easily fooled when numbers confirm our hopes
• Be especially skeptical of data that supports what you already believe

Bottom Line: You can't stop people from twisting numbers, but you can prevent them from tricking you.

Sources: U.S. Senate Commerce Committee Hearings (1965); Reinhart, Alex. "Huff and Puff" Significance (2014)

For more tips on evaluating statistical claims, refer to the accompanying one-page PDF.

Winning Edge gives you the tools you need to lead and influence in the political and policy arenas. Every other week, Winning Edge releases short (approximately 5-minute) spots—or “snacks”—focused on one of four areas: fundraising, media, policy, or persuasion.

For more, visit our website: www.thecommonwealthpartners.com