Friday, 22nd August — GIFT Nifty trades at 25,057, down 50 points, even as Asian markets hold steady in the green. US indices slipped overnight, with the Nasdaq down 0.34% at a crucial 21,000 level.

Flows turned supportive, with FIIs buying ₹1,246 crore and DIIs adding ₹2,546 crore. For the month, however, FIIs remain net sellers (-₹24,128 crore), while DIIs continue to absorb supply (+₹66,512 crore).

Positioning data shows clients maintaining their long stance with 4.43 lakh shares net long, while pros remain net short at 1.21 lakh shares, balancing the risk. With implied volatility at just 8.5 for the August expiry and realized volatility still running higher, long gamma strategies remain the preferred play.

Trade Setup:

• Core directional bias: Stay long gamma.
• Bull Put Spread is attractive: Sell 25,500 PE, Buy 25,100 PE. The spread is trading near 320–330 points, with risk and reward both capped near 40-50 & 350 points.
• Pharma continues to show sectoral strength, while CPSE remains a weak spot.

In commodities, gold trades near ₹99,390 with a slight bullish bias, silver is stable, crude has bounced to ₹5,545, and natural gas shorts should be covered at ₹240. Bitcoin remains weak at $1,13,440, while the Dollar Index stays firm above 98 and USDINR holds at 87.26.

With vols suppressed but realised moves still sharp, the theme remains the same trade with long gamma, use spreads to define risk, and focus on sectoral outperformance.

It’s expiry day, Thursday 21st August, and markets are trading steady near the 25,000 mark. GIFT Nifty is higher at 25,109 (+29 pts), even as US markets saw weakness (Nasdaq -142 pts) and Asian markets trade mixed. Crude has bounced back above $67, gold is inching higher, and USDINR trades firm above 87.

Flows remain divergent — FIIs sold another ₹1,100 crore while DIIs bought ₹1,806 crore, keeping the monthly totals wide apart (FIIs -₹25,375 crore vs DIIs +₹63,966 crore).

Positioning shows clients still holding net longs (~3.16L shares), while pros have cut their shorts to ~56k. Synthetic futures are aligned near spot, indicating expiry action around 25,000–25,150. Weekly IVs have collapsed to 8.8, with the 25,050 straddle pricing just ₹106 — implying an ultra-narrow expiry range of 24,950–25,150.

Today’s trade setup:

• Avoid naked option selling in the morning; vols can spike.
• Calendar trades remain attractive (realized vols > implied).
• Consider a Long Call Butterfly around 25k: Buy 24,950 CE, Sell 2× 25,050 CE, Buy 25,100 CE — defined risk, expiry-aligned.

Sectoral strength continues in IT, Realty, Capital Markets, Small/Midcaps, and FMCG, while Pharma and CPSE remain neutral. In commodities, crude is weak, silver is falling, gold is stable, and Bitcoin trades soft.

The broader market mean remains at 25,000, with upside potential towards 25,200 if momentum builds.

Stay light, trade smart, and let expiry work for you.

Welcome to Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute audio podcast before the chaos begins.

It’s Wednesday, 20th August, and markets are holding steady near the 25,000 mark despite weakness in global equities. Asian indices are sharply lower (Nikkei -1.6%, Taiwan -1.8%, Kospi -1.85%), while US markets saw a tech-led selloff with Nasdaq dropping 1.5%. Brent crude remains under $66, gold continues to slip, and USDINR has cooled off after rejecting 87.50 resistance.

Flows remain divergent — FIIs sold ₹634 crore while DIIs bought ₹2,261 crore, keeping the monthly trend intact: FIIs net sellers (₹24,200 cr) and DIIs strong buyers (₹62,160 cr).

On the positioning front, clients have trimmed longs to ~3.96 lakh shares, while pros have cut shorts sharply to ~65k. With both sides reducing extremes, the market positioning looks balanced. The implied range from the 25k straddle is 24,800–25,200, keeping 25k as the mean reference. Volatility remains subdued at 9.46, making calendar spreads (21st vs 28th Aug) a favored trade.

Sector strength is visible in Autos (GST relief-driven), Realty, Metals, Smallcaps, and Midcaps, while CPSE stocks lag. IT is showing early signs of a turnaround. In commodities, crude remains weak, gold bearish, silver neutral, and natural gas stable. Bitcoin trades steady near $115,000.

Today’s trade view:

• Use dips near 24,800–24,750 to go long.
• Monthly expiry target stands at 25,500.
• Avoid naked option shorts at low vols; look at calendar trades for safer setups.

Key event triggers include FOMC Minutes tonight and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which could shift volatility expectations.

Stay tuned, trade safe, and let’s decode the setup before the chaos begins.