This week Jeremy & Gareth comment on the Middle East situation, its potentially huge and long-term impact on supply chains but also the ability of humanity to reinvent and rearrange very quickly.

Jeremy suggests that the equity market's buoyancy is partly a short-squeeze on Mag 7 as AI spend continues to reach new frenzied highs, and asset managers want "safe" US Dollar assets. The US may have started this war, but their assets and their energy are largely safe from its immediate effects.

Meanwhile Kevin Warsh is suggesting a new - and more nuanced - approach to Central Bank structures...lower interest rates for sure, but with a dose of academic justification. Playing to the crowd, perhaps...persuading the bond markets, hard to tell.

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the only thing that matters - the "cardiac event" threatening the world's circulatory system for its oil lifeblood.

Echoes of Suez reverberate - and the "petrodollar" arrangements of arms sales and protection look thoroughly undermined. Jeremy points out that this feels like "hypernormalisation"....everyone knows that the world order is changing, but is afraid to say it out loud.

China may be the silent victor, but Japan's financial position and/or the bond markets could pose the real risk to markets.

Investors might do well to look to real-world assets, especially if energy exploration is about to become important once again.

Latin America could benefit from a more hinterland-focussed USA. Good luck to the soon-incoming Fed Chairman....what a time to be Kevin Warsh.

Jeremy and Gareth discuss the ongoing challenges emanating from the Middle East. Unlike last year's tariff news, where the Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) trade often won out, it takes two to TACO in a war like this - and Iran so far is not helping.

Markets have been stung, although the US Dollar is once again the "safe haven" asset, making the inflationary impact worse for non-USA countries. Those inflationary risks abound, and the independence of central banks in this critical period will once again be an issue.

Equity markets appear to be less worried than bond investors, although this could change, depending crucially on how long the current impasse persists in the all-important Strait of Hormuz.

When the oil price is more volatile than bitcoin, you know we're in interesting times...