This week, Jeremy and Gareth consider Trump's quick switch from declaring peace in the Middle East to opening a (new) trade war with China - which has almost as quickly subsided, with the Trump/Xi meeting now "back on".

Jeremy highlights the ongoing strength of gold - FOMO bubble or long-term trend driven by debasement of currencies ? And the great rewards of being a gold miner - with unparalleled revenue per ounce, and costs of drilling and transport (often oil-based) in decline.

Bitcoin hasn't participated in the recent gold rally - although over a longer timeframe than the last few months, it has hugely outperformed. Perhaps both can be safe havens in a world of unaffordable government debt and spiralling-down currencies ?

Meanwhile equity markets have been relatively stable, although slightly spooked by the current pressure on US lenders, driven by greater-than-apparent losses flowing from a number of insolvencies that shouldn't have rippled the way they have.

Gareth talks about Gear4Music, Sanderson Design Group and Oxford Metrics, all of which this week have highlighted decent trading (or better) along with the benefit of much cost-control, in each case well received by investors.

Next week we have Chinese growth data and UK inflation which could exceed 4% for the first time in over a year. The end of the week will bring US inflation (they're still publishing despite the government shutdown) - anything much above 3.0% will both rattle markets and possibly cost someone at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics their job. Finally, don't forget Japan...Friday also brings their latest inflation print; as always we better hope there's nothing too surprising.

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the highlights of the last week in financial markets.

Gold (and other precious metals) move to all-time highs, representing a foot on the brake. What are they worried about? Well, there are emerging risks around credit conditions in private markets and increasing concerns that the AI capex cycle is turning into a fully fledged bubble, one that Jeff Bezos, no less, called a good bubble. Jeremy mentioned the under-reported British Bicycle Bubble of the 1890s. See link for details: https://www.historyhit.com/the-great-british-bicycle-bubble-of-1896/

Trump, the peacemaker, is making progress in the Middle East, but not in time to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize. However, the consequences for any deal could involve much lower oil prices and maybe a disruption to the ascent of precious metals prices.

Gareth discusses the UK car loan mis-selling update from the FCA, its impact on Vertu Motors and Secure Trust, and this week's results from Beeks Financial Cloud.

Looking forward, the macro news includes trade and inflation data from China, as well as employment and GDP data from the UK.

With the US government shut down, there are question marks over what to expect from the US market or whether the inflation data on October 15th will even be released.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

After a short break, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the current state of markets as we head into Q4 of 2025. Jeremy suggests that the US recession has been cancelled, and while the music is playing, equity investors feel compelled to dance.

Over Q3, the $ has stabilised and the £ has weakened. The US is "boom baby boom", while the UK is flatlining with no economic growth and a long wait for the Budget on November 26th.

The primary driver of growth in the US is a vast circular investment pattern in AI data centres. With increasing political pressure, the Fed is being compelled to initiate a rate-cutting cycle. However, AI might be a world-changing technological revolution, but as the dot-com bubble showed us, it can also be a financial bubble.

In a week that Open-AI was valued at $500bn Gareth talks about the similarities to the early 2000s.

To complete the bearish take, there are also some early signs of stress in the US credit sector, which some compare to the early stages of the GFC.

Gareth covers updates from some UK companies, including Pharos Energy, Watkin Jones, and Xaar, that continue to show resilient performance.

Finally, there are signs of life in the IPO market as Beauty Tech begins life as a new £300m market cap company, which might be the first of several new issues on their way to the London market in the coming months.

Looking forward, the US government shutdown has put the production of economic data in doubt, with the inflation numbers for October 15th also in question.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.