Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the October 2024 FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's surprisingly hawkish stance despite mounting evidence of labor market weakness. Danielle questions whether the Fed is ignoring its dual mandate as major companies like UPS, GM, Meta, and Amazon announce tens of thousands of layoffs. She discusses the unusual dissents from both Stephen Miran and Jeffrey Schmid, explores potential political dynamics at play within the Fed, and examines growing stress in private credit markets, commercial real estate, and rising corporate bankruptcies. Danielle also highlights alternative labor market indicators like state-by-state data and WARN notices that paint a concerning picture of the economy, while emphasizing the importance of compassion for struggling American families heading into the holiday season.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

This show is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

Learn more about Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

0:00 Introduction & episode 300 celebration

1:37 FOMC meeting reaction - Powell's hawkish tone

2:33 What's really going on at the Fed?

3:48 The two dissenters - Miran & Schmid

5:39 Market reaction to Powell's comments

6:17 The Fed's labor mandate - are they ignoring it?

7:16 Major layoff announcements - UPS, GM, Meta, Amazon

8:00 Is the Fed sticking it to the administration?

9:55 Fed balance sheet & mortgage-backed securities

16:19 Private credit market concerns

27:04 Corporate bankruptcies rising

28:18 October bankruptcy data - highest post-pandemic

29:22 Interest rate impact on corporate refinancing

30:05 What would you ask Powell? State-by-state data

31:29 WARN notices & real labor market data

32:19 Layoffs aren't free - cost to companies

33:10 ADP weekly data as labor market indicator

33:26 Message of compassion during the holidays

34:29 Closing & where to find Danielle's work

35:09 QI Research & Daily Feather newsletter

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche for episode 299. Pento continues to warn of three unprecedented asset bubbles in stocks, bonds, and credit existing concurrently. Despite being net long and up handsomely this year, he emphasizes the critical need for active management. Pento explains why the next crisis will likely stem from spiking bond yields and intractable inflation rather than insolvency alone, making traditional Fed interventions ineffective. He argues that any meaningful correction would be catastrophic given the massive scale of current distortions, while the Fed desperately tries to keep bubbles inflated through rate cuts and resumed quantitative easing.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Links:

https://pentoport.com/

https://twitter.com/michaelpento

0:00 - Introduction & welcome

1:11 - Big picture macro view: current economic landscape

3:38 - The three gargantuan asset bubbles (stocks, bonds, credit)

4:31 - Housing affordability crisis & credit market concerns

6:56 - Active management vs. buy-and-hold strategy

7:25 - How Michael's model protects against market meltdowns

10:48 - The risk of a stagflation-driven crisis

12:00 - Federal Reserve policy & money supply analysis

15:30 - Gold's role in portfolio protection

18:45 - Inflation trajectory & Fed's response

22:15 - Political implications for markets & economy

28:30 - Real estate market dynamics & regional migration

35:20 - Corporate earnings & market valuations

38:45 - The "i economy" - wealth inequality discussion

42:15 - Investment strategy during bubble conditions

46:23 - What keeps Michael up at night & reasons for optimism

49:02 - Where to find Michael's work & services

Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular Fringe Finance substack, warns we're in "completely off the rails, unprecedented territory" with the Fed trapped between printing money to save markets or allowing deflationary debt defaults. He predicts the Fed will ultimately implement yield curve control to bail out the bond market, pushing America down an emerging market path negative for the dollar—which gold's historic rally is already pricing in. Irons dismisses gold meme stock concerns since central banks are the primary buyers, and argues government spending is politically impossible to cut. Drawing from his background as anonymous short seller "Quoth The Raven," he explains why short sellers face unprecedented challenges as Fed liquidity creates massive distortions—$2 trillion in worthless crypto finds bids while fundamentally sound shorts get squeezed. He believes during April's Liberation Day, markets were "days away from a bond market crisis" when stocks and bonds unusually sold off together. Irons warns a sharp deleveraging event is inevitable though timing is uncertain, offering blunt advice: "Don't listen to anybody, including me" and avoid certainty, because we've never been here before and things can change profoundly overnight.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

X: https://x.com/QTRResearch

Substack: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction & welcome

0:36 - Guest introduction: Chris Irons "Quoth The Raven"

1:14 - Big picture macro view: unprecedented territory

2:19 - Gold's rally & stock market highs

2:54 - The 100-year inflationary cycle

4:35 - Fed's dual mandate tension

5:34 - Upcoming Fed meeting & rate cuts

8:00 - Young generation following monetary policy

10:00 - Gold

16:00 - The debasement trade going mainstream

18:40 - Fiscal picture

23:00 - Gold, feels we are on the precipice of a big change

28:00 - Short selling

43:00 - The ultimate bubble

45:00 - Closing