Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, joins the Julia La Roche Show for episode 269 for his latest macro update. Gromen argues the US government is in fiscal dominance, spending over 100% of tax receipts on entitlements and interest payments alone. He says Fed Chair Powell faces a binary choice between crushing the dollar through inflation or crushing the bond market through higher rates. Gromen notes that funding currency relationships between the yen and dollar have broken down, signaling both central banks are cornered. He advocates getting out of government bonds and into hard assets like gold and Bitcoin, predicting that retail investors holding long-term Treasuries will be the biggest losers. Gromen believes Trump officials are "begging" for rate cuts because they know the fiscal math doesn't work without negative real interest rates.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

website: https://fftt-llc.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/lukegromen

00:00 Introduction and welcome back Luke Gromen

01:01 Funding currency relationships breaking down

07:58 Meta trade: exit government bonds, buy hard assets

12:27 Gold still early - central banks driving demand

14:47 Trump officials begging for rate cuts - Fed cornered

16:56 Stablecoin plan requires much higher Bitcoin

20:33 Dollar/bond correlations broken - foreigners selling Treasuries

27:11 Powell's binary choice: crush dollar or bonds

34:14 Fiscal dominance: interest expense >95% of receipts

37:08 DOGE failed - needed dollar devaluation first

39:25 Portfolio: overweight gold, Bitcoin

45:18 Two scenarios: Powell cuts vs. doesn't cut rates

48:54 Retail investors stuck holding long-term bonds

52:04 Closing remarks

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 268, warning of a coming "grand reconciliation" where credit, stock, and real estate bubbles will burst. He argues the US debt is unsustainable, with the next recession triggering $4-6 trillion annual deficits. Pento predicts Trump will replace Powell with an "obsequious sycophant" in May 2026 who will slash rates to zero, causing long-term rates to spike and creating a "debt death spiral." He recommends hard assets like gold and platinum, which he expects will "scream higher" in 2026, and emphasizes the critical importance of active management to navigate the coming crisis.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

https://pentoport.com/

https://twitter.com/michaelpento

0:00 Intro and welcome Michael

01:01 - Macro picture

06:16 - Grand reconciliation coming: debt, real estate, stocks

11:27 - Case for platinum and gold - platinum breakout

14:32 - Hard assets will "scream higher" in 2026

17:11 - Fed should be defunct - market should set rates

22:08 - Next recession: deficit jumps to $4-6 trillion

25:21 - US debt

32:29 - 2026

34:38 - Next Fed chair will be "obsequious sycophant"

38:03 - Closing remarks

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, and George Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG, join Julia La Roche in-studio on FOMC day, where they break down the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged, the state of the economy, and the interest rate outlook.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia

Links:

https://www.mufgresearch.com/

George's Twitter/X: https://x.com/bondstrategist

QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

00:00 - Danielle: Fed "willfully blind" to economic reality 02:52 - Record 5.3% of Americans working multiple jobs 05:00 - Real unemployment is 4.5-4.6%, not reported 4.2% 08:07 - Debate: Is the Fed being political? 10:00 - George: "More than one economy" - rates hurting different groups 16:28 - Net worth declined via both stocks and real estate in Q1 21:57 - Interest expense is fastest growing budget item 26:06 - Next Fed Chair prediction: Waller, Warsh, Bessent front-runners 32:12 - Corporate bankruptcies highest since 2010 38:49 - Danielle: US entered recession Q1 2024, back in one now 40:26 - Top 10% of earners drive 49.7% of consumption 43:52 - What keeps them up at night: False sense of security