The big brokerage firms are fighting for your investment accounts

Our investment advisory firm over the years has never been a favorite of the big brokerage firms because we generally only do three, maybe four trades on average per year. But the big brokerage firms are now acting like the casinos in Las Vegas and are doing everything they can to get you on their platform. They will give you all kinds of tools and seminars, so you’ll take higher risk and do more trading. In the meantime, they're downplaying the risk of trading. You see also like the casinos in Las Vegas, there are now stories of them giving away free rooms for the big players and they are giving you free software and free education on how to trade. Robinhood even invited 1000 people to Las Vegas and took them go kart racing and provided classes with their new trade platform. Schwab and Fidelity are doing similar types of events…

Can Travis Kelce turn around Six Flags?

If you’re not sure who Travis Kelce is, he is a tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs and engaged to the well-known singer Taylor Swift. Six Flags, which is a public company that trades under the symbol FUN, has received an investment of $200 million from the activist investment company JANA Partners. It was not disclosed how much investment Travis has of the $200 million, but he does like to invest in companies both public and private. He has investments in over 30 companies that include manufacturing, distribution, consumer goods, entertainment, and a beer company. He is pretty excited about his investment because as a kid he used to love the roller coasters, Dippin' Dots and him and his brother have great memories at Six Flags. He has suggested that they do a roller coaster with a 300 foot drop where riders feet dangle from beneath. Investing in Six Flags seems to be an uphill battle. Year to date the stock is down roughly 45%, the…

Markets actually declined after the Fed rate cut 

On Wednesday, the Fed announced they would lower their benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75%-4%. This marked the second consecutive cut of 0.25% and there is still one meeting left this year where we could see another rate cut. The keyword here is could and the lack of conviction around another cut is likely what spooked the market. Powell said a December rate cut isn’t a “foregone conclusion” and while recently appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran again dissented in favor of a 0.5% cut, there was also a hawkish dissent with Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voting for no decrease. Schmid's vote and Powell's language was likely what sent the market lower after the announcement as many essentially had the December rate cut factored in as a sure thing. Powell also added that there is “a growing chorus” among the 19 Fed officials to “at least wait a cycle” before cutting again. This resulted in traders lowering the odds for a December cut to 67% from 90% the day prior. Given the lack of data and an economy that still appears to be in an alright position, I do…

Financial Planning: When does a Solar System Make Sense?

Buying a solar system generally makes the most sense if you use a lot of electricity and plan to stay in your home long term. Installing by the end of 2025 allows you to capture the 30% federal tax credit, which significantly shortens the payback period. If the system is financed with a mortgage or home equity line of credit (HELOC), the interest may be tax-deductible, allowing for little or no upfront cash outlay and after-tax loan payments that can be lower than the monthly electricity savings. Owned solar panels usually increase home value, though not always enough to fully offset the system’s cost, which is why longer-term ownership is important to recoup the investment. In California…

Companies Discussed: The Coca-Cola Company (KO), Capital One Financial Corporation (COF), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX)

Inflation report likely solidifies Fed rate cut this month

The September Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, showed inflation climbed 3% year over year for both the headline and core numbers. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in better than both the estimate and the previous month's reading; both stood at 3.1%. It was a surprise to get this data with the government shutdown, but since it is used as a benchmark for cost-of living adjustments in benefit checks by the Social Security Administration it was a rare economic point in an otherwise quiet period. Energy, which provided such a benefit to the headline number for many months, has started to reverse course as it climbed 2.8% compared to last year. Gasoline was a small benefit as it was down 0.5%, but energy services climbed 6.4% thanks to an increase of 5.1% for electricity and an increase of 11.7% for utility...

The bank earnings from last week had some surprising undertones.

Overall, the third-quarter report from the big banks showed things are pretty much going along OK. But then a couple of the big banks brought up the issue of private credit and some bankruptcies that led to write-downs. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, pointed out that even though he said he probably should not say it that "if you see one cockroach, there are probably more." Some smaller financial institutions like Zions Bancorp and Alliance Bancorp took a $50 million charge and $100 million charge respectively due to potentially fraudulent loans. The issue here is commercial banks have been...

Risky investing behavior continues to amaze me!

Many people will point out that we have missed the boat on crypto, but I continue to worry about the space long term as there is no true way to value what these cryptocurrencies are worth. While this is a major concern for our firm, I would say leverage in the space is another major risk. A big problem is the rules and regulations and ultimately the transparency in the space is not as clear as when you invest in public equities. I was blown away reading an article on CNBC by how crazy the leverage can be, and I bet most investors have no clue about it. While there are ways to leverage crypto in the US, the offshore market is where things get wild! Offshore, decentralized exchanges Hyperliquid offer maximum leverage of 40-times for bitcoin and 25-times for ether and Binance Labs-linked Aster offers as much as 100x leverage, depending on the token. Leverage is so dangerous because if a decline comes and investors need to unwind a position it can create a cascade of selling that leads to massive losses. It is not just the crypto market where people are gambling though. We saw a return to meme craziness with Beyond Meat producing massive gains of 128% Monday and 146% Tuesday. On Wednesday, the stock...

Financial Planning: The real cost of financial mistakes

When it comes to financial wellbeing, avoiding mistakes can be even more powerful than chasing great decisions. Too often, people lose ground not from lack of opportunity, but from unforced errors. Drawing retirement income without tax strategy can quietly cost thousands in extra taxes or Medicare premiums. Holding too much cash or being overly aggressive both expose you to risk, one to inflation, the other to unrecoverable losses. Maintaining investing discipline sounds simple but emotional reactions like selling when markets fall or chasing what’s hot can destroy more wealth than poor returns ever could. Many homeowners also miss out by not structuring their mortgage correctly resulting in more short-term fees, long-term interest, and missed investment returns. The key isn’t perfection; it’s recognizing that protecting...

Companies Discussed: The Progressive Corporation (PGR), Bank of America Corporation (BAC), ManpowerGroup, Inc. (MAN) & Snap-on Incorporated (SNA)

Will gold hit $5000 an ounce?

With all the excitement surrounding the run up in gold this year it seems to be an easy target. However, as investors pour money into precious metals, such as gold, people have to remember that President Trump has pledged to stimulate the economy through tax cuts. The run up in gold has been due to investors that worry about the future of the dollar and other major currencies. Wall Street has labeled this the debasement trade. The dollar did decline in the…

Great news, more working-class Americans than ever before are in the stock market.

That does sound like good news, but then when you dig a little deeper, it is rather scary! 54% of Americans with incomes between $30,000 and $80,000 have taxable investment accounts. There are several reasons for this like no more commissions for trading stocks, the excitement of investing on certain social media sites, and it’s so easy to trade stocks now as anyone who has a cell phone can pretty much trade stocks instantaneously. I remember an old saying from years ago that when your barber starts talking to you about stock tips that is the peak of the market. This seems to be where we're at today and unfortunately, these investors have…

Lower end consumers are having a hard time making their car payments

With the rising cost of cars and higher interest rates, lower end consumers are falling behind on their car payments, and the numbers are starting to get a little scary. 14% of new cars that were sold to people had a credit score under 650, this is the highest percent going back to 2016. People seem to be getting in over their head as subprime loans that are 60 days or more overdue are at a record 6% this year. The number of repossessed vehicles is also climbing to a record not seen in 16 years to an estimated 17.3 million repossessed vehicles. Some consumers overbought a car probably due to a good salesperson and that new car smell that sometimes is hard to resist. Some consumers are starting to regret their new car purchase considering the average car payment is around $750 and 20% of loans…

Financial Planning: Upgrade Your Emergency Fund to an Emergency Plan

When paychecks stop, as many federal employees are currently experiencing, having an emergency plan with multiple layers of liquidity is essential. The first line of defense is your credit card. When used strategically, it can buy you up to two months of interest-free spending since no interest accrues until after the statement due date. However, you don’t want to carry a balance beyond that point. Next comes cash reserves, ideally kept in a high-yield Treasury bill money market fund, where your money earns competitive interest while avoiding state tax. Beyond cash, having credit lines such as a HELOC provides deeper, low-cost access to capital without forcing you to liquidate investments. These can take a couple of months to establish, and since they generally don’t have origination fees, it’s best to set them up before you need them. After that, investment accounts can serve as a secondary safety net. Taxable accounts may generate capital gains, but withdrawals are unrestricted. Roth IRA…

Companies Discussed: Ferrari (RACE), Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) & Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)