In this Labor Day conversation, investor Hunter Craig and University of Virginia economist Professor Edwin Burton break down the latest forces shaping the U.S. economy. With the September 17 Federal Reserve meeting looming, the discussion covers where rates are headed, the real limits of Fed power, and the political tug-of-war over central bank independence.

Professor Burton also shares sharp insights into America’s mounting deficit, the shaky ground under AI-driven capital expenditures, and why tariffs act more like a sales tax than a growth policy. From inflation trends to Warren Buffett’s blunt solution for Congress, this episode delivers clarity on issues that impact us all.

Key Topics:

• Why the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points at the September 17 meeting

• The misunderstood limits of Federal Reserve power and its reluctance to overuse the balance sheet

• Central bank “independence”: myth, politics, and global cautionary tales

• U.S. consumption and investment spending — and what they signal for growth

• The AI capital boom: Porsche-level hype or Honda-level utility?

• Why today’s equity valuations echo dot-com era bubbles

• Tariffs as sales taxes and their hidden cost to American households

• Why the U.S. deficit cannot be solved by “growing our way out”

• Warren Buffett’s simple (but unlikely) fix for Congressional overspending

Guest Bio:

Professor Edwin T. Burton is Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia and a former partner at Rothschild, Inc. He has also served on the faculties of Cornell, Princeton, and the University of Chicago. His expertise spans financial markets, the Federal Reserve, and economic policy.

Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

In this sobering and thought-provoking episode, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin Burton of the University of Virginia to unpack the harsh economic realities we face as the national debt approaches $40 trillion. Together, they cover everything from university research incentives to runaway entitlement spending, inflation, and the limits of Federal Reserve intervention. With a mix of wit, clarity, and no-nonsense economic insight, Professor Burton breaks down the problems that no one in politics seems willing to fix—and offers practical advice for protecting your financial future.

In This Episode:

• How university funding and research grants may be contributing to economic waste
• The misaligned incentives behind academic research and tenure
• Why inflation may be the only solution politicians turn to
• The real drivers of federal debt: Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security Professor Burton’s unfiltered take on healthcare spending and political stalemates
• Market outlook for the second half of 2025 and why the S&P might not reflect reality Strategies for surviving inflation and preserving wealth through hard assets

Guest Bio:

Professor Edwin T. Burton is an emeritus professor of economics at the University of Virginia. Over the course of his 50+ year academic career, he has taught at multiple universities and is known for his deep expertise in finance, macroeconomics, and public policy. His insights cut through the noise to provide clear-eyed perspectives on America’s most urgent economic challenges.

Call to Action:

Liked what you heard? Subscribe to Rubber Meets the Road Economics and share this episode with someone who wants to understand the real drivers of our economy. For questions or comments, email us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com.

Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton to unpack one of the most pressing economic topics of our time: tariffs. With political posturing, trade wars, and rising costs dominating the headlines, Professor Burton breaks down why tariffs are effectively a regressive sales tax that hits consumers the hardest — especially those with lower incomes.

The conversation doesn’t stop at trade. Professor Burton also dissects recent inflation data, challenges the Fed’s narrative on expected inflation, and explains why the central bank’s actions don’t always align with market reality. From the politics of trade policy to the mechanics of interest rates and monetary supply, this is a conversation rich with insight and sharp critique.

• Why tariffs act like a national sales tax—and who really pays for them
• How proposed tariffs are impacting U.S. allies and trading partners
• Why the narrative that “China pays” for tariffs is economically incorrect
• What inflation data is really telling us (hint: it’s not what the media says)
• The flaw in the Fed’s reliance on “expected inflation”
• What the money supply reveals about real inflation drivers
• Why interest rates aren’t as controlled by the Fed as many think
• Professor Burton’s take on Powell’s leadership and policy timing
• What historical examples teach us about inflation and money printing

Professor Edwin T. Burton is a renowned economist and professor emeritus at the University of Virginia. With decades of experience in academia, finance, and government policy, Professor Burton is known for his candid, data-driven perspective on fiscal and monetary policy. His work often challenges conventional narratives and focuses on the deeper forces shaping the global economy.

• Learn more about Professor Edwin T. Burton: University of Virginia Faculty Page
• Connect with the show: Email us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com

Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

As the S&P 500 hits record highs and inflation cools, you might think the U.S. economy is cruising. But Professor Edwin T. Burton returns to Rubber Meets the Road Economics with a more sobering take: the real warning signs are hiding in plain sight. In this episode, Professor Burton explains why the yield on the two-month Treasury is a more reliable predictor of Fed action than market sentiment—and why he thinks the economy may be heading toward a recession. He breaks down the pressures on U.S. debt markets, explains how AI might shift the labor force, and makes a compelling case for watching the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, not just their statements. If you want to understand what’s coming in the second half of 2025, this episode is essential listening.

Episode Breakdown:

• Why inflation may already be “last year’s story”
• What the 2-month Treasury yield reveals about the Fed’s next move
• How foreign investors are retreating from U.S. debt—and why that matters
• Why interest rates may stay high, even in a recession
• The limits of artificial intelligence as an economic fix
• Arbitrage explained: how institutional players respond to Fed policy
• Predictions for Q3 and Q4 2025: weak consumer spending, fragile housing, persistent debt pressure
• How to think critically about AI’s impact on jobs, investment, and productivity

Guest Bio:

Professor Edwin T. Burton is Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia, where he has taught for nearly four decades. A respected voice in both academic and financial circles, Burton’s career spans roles as a Wall Street economist, a financial strategist, and a sought-after commentator on monetary policy. He is known for his clear, no-nonsense analysis of complex economic systems and his ability to connect high-level financial trends to everyday realities.

Call to Action:

Like what you heard? Be sure to subscribe and leave a review wherever you get your podcasts. For listener questions or topic suggestions, email us at: rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com.

Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

In this crucial episode, Hunter Craig speaks with Professor Edwin T. Burton about the alarming implications of recent U.S. tariff policies, market volatility, and America's mounting debt crisis. Professor Burton provides candid insights into why he believes markets have further to fall, the inherent dangers of current tariff strategies, and the troubling decline in foreign investment in U.S. Treasury auctions. Tune in for an eye-opening discussion about the true costs of tariffs, the urgent need for increased American savings, and actionable alternatives to avoid economic turmoil.

Episode Breakdown:

• Why the stock market is poised to decline further
• The direct impact of Trump's tariff policies on markets
• Historical parallels and lessons from past economic crises
• The weakening of foreign participation in U.S. debt markets
• The urgent need for a higher American savings rate
• Misconceptions about U.S.-China trade dynamics
• Potential consequences if U.S. interest rates rise significantly
• Critical assessment of recent Treasury auction performances
• The escalating dangers of America's ballooning national debt
• Solutions for sustainable economic policies and debt management

Guest Bio: Professor Edwin T. Burton is an esteemed economist at the University of Virginia with decades of experience in financial markets, economic policy, and international trade. Known for his straightforward, pragmatic analysis, Dr. Burton has educated numerous influential figures in finance and remains an authoritative voice in economic forecasting and policy critique.

Connect with us! We want to hear your thoughts and questions about the economy.

Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Investing and financial decisions carry risks; always conduct your own research.

Call to Action: Subscribe today and stay informed about critical economic trends impacting your future.

In this episode, Professor Edwin Burton joins Hunter Craig to discuss the recent implementation of tariffs by the U.S. government and their far-reaching effects on the economy. They delve into who truly bears the cost of tariffs, the unprecedented market reactions, and the potential long-term consequences for both domestic and international financial landscapes.

Episode Breakdown:

• Introduction: Overview of current economic climate and introduction to the topic of tariffs.
• Tariffs Explained: Discussion on who pays tariffs and their intended versus actual effects.
• Market Reactions: Analysis of the unusual market responses following tariff announcements.
• International Implications: Examination of how other countries are responding and the potential global economic impact.
• Historical Context: Comparison to past economic events and policies, including the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.
• Conclusion: Final thoughts on the future of the economy in light of current policies.

Relevant Links:

• U.S. Treasury Secretary’s Statement on China and Treasuries
• Howard Marks on the Risks of the Trade War
• Axios on Global Investment Shifts Due to Tariffs

Professor Edwin T. Burton is a seasoned economist and former Wall Street executive with decades of experience analyzing economic trends. As a professor at the University of Virginia, he bridges academic knowledge and practical expertise to shed light on complex economic topics. His optimism and deep understanding of historical and modern economics make his insights invaluable to listeners.

Disclaimer:

The information provided in this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Call to Action:

Stay informed on economic policies and their real-world implications. Subscribe to Rubber Meets the Road Economics and join the conversation on how these changes affect you.

As the U.S. deficit balloons toward $2 trillion annually and total national debt surpasses $36 trillion, the financial sustainability of government spending has never been more uncertain. Economist and UVA professor Edwin Burton joins host Hunter Craig to break down the underlying economic forces shaping America’s future.

Topics Covered:

✅ The impact of rising debt and deficits on the economy

✅ How healthcare spending is driving the debt crisis

✅ The unintended consequences of government-run healthcare

✅ Social Security’s flaws and potential reforms

✅ What policymakers could learn from private insurance models

Key Takeaways:

🔹 Government-run healthcare often leads to rationing and declining quality

🔹 Social Security disproportionately benefits wealthy retirees while failing lower-income earners

🔹 The absence of competitive pricing in healthcare fuels inefficiency and waste

🔹 Policy reforms could introduce more market-driven solutions to control costs

Financial Disclaimer:

The information provided in this podcast is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.

📩 Have thoughts on today’s episode? Share your insights and join the conversation by subscribing to The Rubber Meets the Road Economics Podcast.

Connect With Us:

Email: rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com

In Episode 16, Tariffs are back in the news.

On February 1, 2025, the U.S. announced new tariffs on Canada and Mexico—only to delay them for 30 days. What does this mean for American businesses, workers, and consumers?

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss the broader economic implications of trade policy.

Professor Burton explains how free trade creates both winners and losers—boosting economic growth overall while disrupting certain industries. The challenge for policymakers, he argues, is not to block trade but to support those who are negatively affected. Using examples from U.S. history, he highlights why tariffs tend to raise prices for consumers, disproportionately impacting lower-income households.

The conversation also turns to the U.S. national debt, currently at $36 trillion and projected to hit $50 trillion in under a decade. Professor Burton explains why healthcare spending—not defense or Social Security—is the biggest driver of America’s debt problem and why economic reforms must address this issue first.

Finally, they discuss Social Security reform, with Professor Burton offering insights on how a defined contribution model could provide better retirement outcomes while keeping the system sustainable.

Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

Connect With Us:

Email: rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com

Key Quotes from the Episode

📢 “Free trade is actually better for everyone—if you compensate the losers.” – Prof. Edwin T. Burton

📢 “Tariffs make all of us poorer, and the people who pay the highest price are lower-income consumers.” – Prof. Edwin T. Burton

📢 “If Detroit is threatened by competition, the right answer is not tariffs—it’s helping those who lose their jobs.” – Prof. Edwin T. Burton

📢 “The U.S. debt crisis is primarily a healthcare problem. If we don’t control healthcare costs, we won’t fix the debt.” – Prof. Edwin T. Burton

📢 “Social Security is fixable. Healthcare is the real challenge.” – Prof. Edwin T. Burton