This week on Current Market Insights, Kieran O’Brien and Peter O’Malley unpack the key points from Peter’s latest monthly newsletter and what they mean on the ground in Sydney real estate.

They cover why the market is likely to brush off the latest rate hike, and why the bigger story is what happens next if the RBA goes again.

They also dig into the New South Wales Fair Trading name and shame register and what it is designed to do, especially around underquoting. Plus the rental market outlook, with Peter on the record saying Sydney rents could rise 10% in 2026, and why interest rates, land tax, supply, and demand are lining up for a tough year for renters.

To finish, they look at stock levels early in the year, relistings colliding with new listings, and the shifting currency advantage for cashed up migrants and returning expats as the Australian dollar strengthens.

Topics include:

RBA rate hike and why it may be benign
Stagflation risk and jobs market context
NSW Fair Trading name and shame register and underquoting
Sydney rents forecast and landlord pressures
Land tax threshold freeze and more investors getting hit
2026 stock levels, relistings, and buyer demand
AUD strength and the fading currency bonanza for overseas buyers

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Hosts Ciaran O’Brien and Peter O’Malley unpack the RBA’s latest rate hike and why inflation in Australia remains stubbornly above target. We explore how the next six weeks could reshape sentiment, borrowing capacity and price momentum, while comparing Sydney’s serviceability risks against other cities and assessing whether policy proposals around land supply can truly shift the housing balance.

We also discuss:

• Cash rate rising to 3.85% with mortgage rates sitting in the high fives to low sixes
• RBA signalling inflation likely to remain above target for an extended period
• Why the board opted for a smaller, steady hike instead of a 0.5% move
• Global market volatility versus Australia’s domestic inflation drivers
• Government spending and wage policy contributing to persistent price pressures
• Borrower resilience alongside growing serviceability risks in Sydney
• The typical six-week lag before rate hikes fully impact the real economy
• Rental market stabilising with modest increases and rising house-sharing trends
• Policy discussion around potential military land sell-offs and supply constraints
• Practical guidance for sellers, buyers and investors navigating a shifting cycle

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Hosts Ciaran O’Brien and Peter O’Malley break down the 3.8% CPI print and why housing costs—especially rents and electricity—are doing most of the damage. We explain what a likely 0.25% RBA hike means for prices, buyer sentiment, and negotiations, then turn to NSW’s new name-and-shame register for agents and whether tougher enforcement can rebuild trust in the industry.

We also discuss:

• Headline inflation at 3.8% and the upward trend
• Trimmed mean inflation closer to target, but not enough to reassure the RBA
• Housing as the key CPI driver: rents and electricity in focus
• Why a 0.25% rate hike is likely at the next RBA meeting
• January listings lifting as vendors move earlier than usual
• Buyer sentiment dipping despite APRA buffers and approvals holding
• Stress risk concentrated in households with thin cash buffers
• Uneven impacts of first-home buyer schemes across suburbs
• Migration continuing to support house-and-land demand
• NSW’s name-and-shame register: who it applies to and what offences qualify
• Underquoting incentives versus real consumer harm
• Fee misuse, conflicts of interest, and stricter enforcement ahead
• Practical tactics for pricing, negotiating, and timing decisions in a tighter setting

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Hosts Ciaran O’Brien and Peter O’Malley deliver a clear-eyed check on how Sydney’s property market opens in 2026—steady inspections, cautious buyers, and a noticeable shift where apartments begin edging ahead of houses as first home buyer activity concentrates at the affordable end. We map the three key signals to watch this year—immigration, the employment market, and interest rates—and explain how they flow through to rents, sentiment, and price direction.

We also discuss:

• Buyer activity holding steady, but hesitation rising
• December exchanges pulling demand forward into early 2026
• A slight monthly fall for houses, while apartments lift
• First home buyer schemes pushing more demand into units
• Western Sydney showing intense entry-level competition
• Energy costs squeezing household budgets and adding pressure to rents
• The “three signals” for 2026: immigration, employment quality, and interest rates
• Why the RBA may “jawbone” markets before making any move
• Cumulative immigration tightening rentals and feeding CPI pressure
• Underemployment reducing borrowing capacity and shrinking buffers
• A practical read on where prices could bend next as conditions evolve

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Peter O'Malley joins 2GB's John Stanley to give a clear read on Australia’s property market in 2026, weighing forecasts for modest growth against pressure from rising rates, strong migration, and a tight rental market. Peter looks at investor exits, tax changes, commercial risks, prestige momentum, and how jobs and AI could tip the balance.

• four to eight percent growth forecasts versus likely rate hikes
• late 2025 softness in Sydney and early January buyer intent
• immigration-driven rental pressure and CPI flow-through
• NSW land tax bite and investor retreat to Brisbane
• commercial risks in retail, office, and tenant durability
• RBA’s quarterly inflation focus and policy timing
• prestige property decoupling and AML obligations
• unemployment trend, AI job risk, and market resilience

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In this special Talking Property episode, Harris Partners’ Peter O’Malley is joined by SQM Research Director Louis Christopher, widely regarded as Australia’s leading property analyst, to preview what lies ahead for the housing market in 2026. With Sydney tipped for a strong year, Louis unpacks the key forces that will shape prices, rentals, and market stability.

We also discuss:

• The RBA’s interest rate dilemma and what it means for housing
• Why 2026 is shaping up as a strong year for property markets
• Key risks that could threaten market stability
• The slow rebalancing between dwelling supply and demand
• Rental market forecasts and ongoing pressure points
• The impact of AI on employment and flow-on effects for housing
• What buyers, sellers, landlords, and tenants should be watching closely

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SQM Research's Louis Christopher offers an insightful breakdown on the State of the Market in Sydney for 2025. We unpack why Sydney’s 2025 property market rose overall yet lost steam late in the year.

• three rate cuts then a CPI shock reframing expectations
• supply targets missing by a wide margin
• electricity prices driving inflation and sentiment
• APRA’s soft investor caps in hotter non‑Sydney markets
• migration outpacing new dwellings and lifting rents
• vacancies near 1% and rental affordability strain
• data integrity issues with auction benchmarks
• underquoting eroding trust and fair competition
• first‑home buyer schemes and high‑LVR risk
• late‑year weakness in mid and top‑end Sydney
• unemployment risk and the spectre of stagflation

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Hosts Ciaran O’Brien and Peter O’Malley wrap up a year where rate cuts calmed mortgage distress, yet inflation quietly returned through energy, services, and daily essentials. As AI reshapes jobs, rental markets hold steady, and policy reforms tighten compliance, we reflect on what defined 2025 — and what’s next for Sydney’s property landscape.

We also discuss:

• How rate cuts removed forced selling and lifted sentiment
• Inflation’s reacceleration through energy and service sectors
• Unemployment edging up as AI drives underemployment
• The tension between return-to-office mandates and automation risk
• Public sector hiring cushioning private sector softness
• First-home buyer incentives pulling forward demand
• Migration maintaining pressure on housing and rentals
• Rental conditions steady but poised for another upswing
• Investors chasing yield outside inner Sydney markets
• Tougher penalties and audits reshaping underquoting practices
• Reserve-price disclosure proposals threatening the auction model
• Vendor liability flagged as the missing accountability link

From all of us at Current Market Insights — Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. We’ll see you in 2026.

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