This week on Current Market Insights, Kieran O’Brien and Peter O’Malley unpack the key points from Peter’s latest monthly newsletter and what they mean on the ground in Sydney real estate.

They cover why the market is likely to brush off the latest rate hike, and why the bigger story is what happens next if the RBA goes again.

They also dig into the New South Wales Fair Trading name and shame register and what it is designed to do, especially around underquoting. Plus the rental market outlook, with Peter on the record saying Sydney rents could rise 10% in 2026, and why interest rates, land tax, supply, and demand are lining up for a tough year for renters.

To finish, they look at stock levels early in the year, relistings colliding with new listings, and the shifting currency advantage for cashed up migrants and returning expats as the Australian dollar strengthens.

Topics include:

RBA rate hike and why it may be benign
Stagflation risk and jobs market context
NSW Fair Trading name and shame register and underquoting
Sydney rents forecast and landlord pressures
Land tax threshold freeze and more investors getting hit
2026 stock levels, relistings, and buyer demand
AUD strength and the fading currency bonanza for overseas buyers

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As always if there is a specific topic you would like for us to cover, please reach out and let us know!

Hosts Ciaran O’Brien and Peter O’Malley unpack the RBA’s latest rate hike and why inflation in Australia remains stubbornly above target. We explore how the next six weeks could reshape sentiment, borrowing capacity and price momentum, while comparing Sydney’s serviceability risks against other cities and assessing whether policy proposals around land supply can truly shift the housing balance.

We also discuss:

• Cash rate rising to 3.85% with mortgage rates sitting in the high fives to low sixes
• RBA signalling inflation likely to remain above target for an extended period
• Why the board opted for a smaller, steady hike instead of a 0.5% move
• Global market volatility versus Australia’s domestic inflation drivers
• Government spending and wage policy contributing to persistent price pressures
• Borrower resilience alongside growing serviceability risks in Sydney
• The typical six-week lag before rate hikes fully impact the real economy
• Rental market stabilising with modest increases and rising house-sharing trends
• Policy discussion around potential military land sell-offs and supply constraints
• Practical guidance for sellers, buyers and investors navigating a shifting cycle

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As always if there is a specific topic you would like for us to cover, please reach out and let us know!

Hosts Ciaran O’Brien and Peter O’Malley break down the 3.8% CPI print and why housing costs—especially rents and electricity—are doing most of the damage. We explain what a likely 0.25% RBA hike means for prices, buyer sentiment, and negotiations, then turn to NSW’s new name-and-shame register for agents and whether tougher enforcement can rebuild trust in the industry.

We also discuss:

• Headline inflation at 3.8% and the upward trend
• Trimmed mean inflation closer to target, but not enough to reassure the RBA
• Housing as the key CPI driver: rents and electricity in focus
• Why a 0.25% rate hike is likely at the next RBA meeting
• January listings lifting as vendors move earlier than usual
• Buyer sentiment dipping despite APRA buffers and approvals holding
• Stress risk concentrated in households with thin cash buffers
• Uneven impacts of first-home buyer schemes across suburbs
• Migration continuing to support house-and-land demand
• NSW’s name-and-shame register: who it applies to and what offences qualify
• Underquoting incentives versus real consumer harm
• Fee misuse, conflicts of interest, and stricter enforcement ahead
• Practical tactics for pricing, negotiating, and timing decisions in a tighter setting

Send us a text

As always if there is a specific topic you would like for us to cover, please reach out and let us know!