Global Nuts Market Summary

• West Africa's cashew sector is heading towards a near-record crop for the 2026/27 season, supported by improved yields in Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria. Rising Asian demand is expected to lift regional raw cashew nut exports, although accumulated global stocks, softer prices and quality concerns are limiting the scope for a sustained market recovery.
• Côte d'Ivoire's production is forecast at 970,000 tonnes, up 6% year on year, while Nigeria's output is expected to rise 5% to 280,000 tonnes. By contrast, localized drought in Burkina Faso and Ghana is constraining production, with both countries expected to record slight declines. West African raw cashew nut exports are projected to increase 8%, with India and Vietnam remaining the principal buyers. Port congestion continues to cause some shipping delays, although logistics have improved compared with previous seasons.
• In Côte d'Ivoire, raw cashew nut prices are around $1.20-$1.32 per kilogram, approximately 10% below last year's peak. Currency pressures and carryover stocks are weighing on prices, while inconsistent kernel sizes and higher moisture levels are increasing the importance of quality control as buyer specifications tighten.
• The outlook remains exposed to weather volatility, geopolitical disruptions and uncertainty over Chinese demand. Asia's concentration of processing capacity leaves the supply chain vulnerable to shipping bottlenecks, while large existing inventories could delay price recovery even as consumption improves. Export continuity relative to raw material availability will be a key indicator of near-term market direction.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Tanzania has opened the 2026-27 cashew season targeting 750,000 tonnes, a 21.3% increase year on year. Government support includes subsidized sulfur and pesticide distribution, although shortages in Mtwara and Lindi could constrain production growth.
• Mozambique expects cashew output to fall 28.4% to 146,000 tonnes, despite raising its farm-gate reference price to 48 meticais per kilogram. Higher export levies and stricter anti-smuggling penalties aim to regulate trade but could increase costs for traders.
• In California's Yolo County, pistachio crop value nearly doubled in 2025, supported by maturing orchards and favorable prices. However, rising fertilizer and labor costs threaten profitability. In southern France, growers are considering pistachios as an alternative to vineyards amid weakness in the wine market, although transition costs remain a barrier.
• Ukraine is exploring almond cultivation in drought-prone southern regions as domestic demand grows and import dependence persists. Expanding irrigated orchards will be important to increasing local supply. Meanwhile, Pakistan has introduced revised customs valuations for imported almonds based on shell type, with provisions for appeals under the Customs Act.
• Overall, the outlook depends on reliable agricultural inputs, production costs, infrastructure investment and the effectiveness of trade policies. Expanding domestic processing and cultivation capacity will remain important to improving competitiveness and meeting demand.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• In Texas, peanut acreage has fallen to approximately 145,000 acres for 2026 following the previous season's surplus and weaker prices. Organic peanut acreage has also declined by 25%. Prolonged extreme heat and irrigation constraints threaten yields, making final production dependent on water availability and harvest conditions.
• Nigeria's cashew sector is seeking to improve tax administration and domestic processing capacity. The country reportedly loses around $1.3 billion annually by exporting unprocessed nuts, while inadequate electricity, logistics and security challenges limit local processors' competitiveness.
• Afghanistan's almond production has declined 20% year on year due to drought, encouraging farmers to consider higher-value, lower-water varieties. In contrast, Spain's expected bumper harvest could increase European supply, while US almond valuations remain strong despite reduced acreage.
• In the walnut market, France's Grenoble PDO has added the Frenor variety to diversify production and modestly improve yields. However, global oversupply, including strong Ukrainian production, is intensifying competition, while favorable trade conditions are supporting US producers.
• Georgia's hazelnut industry faces rising labor costs that threaten harvesting, maintenance and future productivity. Turkey retains its competitive advantage through scale, while steady but modest demand increases the importance of quality and cost control for Georgian exporters.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• The global nuts market is navigating tighter supply, margin pressure, shifting processing capacity, and uneven demand. This week's summary covers declining US peanut production, changing cashew dynamics across Africa and Vietnam, firm pistachio demand in India, and challenges across almonds, walnuts, and hazelnuts.
• US peanut production is forecast to fall sharply, with planted area down 28% and production down 29% year on year. Farm gate prices remain around $500 per ton despite tighter supply, suggesting adequate inventories or weaker demand. Rising fuel and labor costs are further squeezing producer margins, making the farm gate price to diesel cost relationship an important indicator for future planting decisions.
• Vietnam remains dominant in global cashew processing, but high raw nut costs and limited kernel price growth are compressing margins. Mozambique faces falling export revenues despite relatively stable volumes, while Tanzania and Mozambique continue to target higher production amid low yields and limited processing capacity. Cote D'Ivoire's rising domestic processing share is also reshaping global raw cashew availability.
• Pistachio prices in India are firming ahead of the 2026 festive season, with import dependence leaving premium supplies vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions involving Iran. US shipments remain strong despite changes in Chinese demand, while Afghanistan's emerging sector faces challenges from forest degradation and limited processing infrastructure.
• Almonds, walnuts, and hazelnuts face their own structural pressures. High input costs and unharvested acreage remain concerns in almonds, while Ukraine's walnut exports are constrained by quality and infrastructure issues. Oregon hazelnut prices face downward pressure from uncertainty over Turkey's crop and weather-related quality problems, increasing the focus on higher-quality, differentiated products.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Ghana's cashew sector is facing a sharp farmgate price collapse, with prices falling from around 20 cedis per kilogram last year to approximately 5 cedis, with some transactions as low as 3 cedis. The decline is weakening grower incentives and pushing some experienced farmers to consider leaving the sector. The mandated minimum producer price of 12 cedis per kilogram remains above the prevailing market range, highlighting the disconnect between policy and commercial conditions. Foreign buyers, particularly those supplying Asian processors, are able to pre-finance crops and absorb higher prices, while local processors face difficult margins under a global kernel price ceiling of roughly USD 4,500 per ton. A proposed raw cashew export levy may have limited impact unless the price gap is addressed or additional support is provided to domestic processors.
• US pistachio shipments reached a record 125.2 million pounds in the 2025-26 marketing year, up 1.8% from the previous year. However, China's role as a major destination has declined sharply, with shipments falling 78% as trade shifts toward Asian re-export hubs such as Vietnam. Looking ahead to the 2026-27 crop, California's expected off year and physiological challenges point to lower production, tighter spot liquidity, and potential cost inflation and supply rationing for Asian and Middle Eastern buyers.
• Spain's almond export season ended with lower volumes but higher export value, reflecting a firm pricing environment. The United States became a more important destination, while exports to Germany and Italy declined. Expectations for the next Spanish harvest are considerably stronger, with production forecast to rise 39%, although pest pressure and higher production costs remain risks.
• The hazelnut market remains tight, led by Turkey and Georgia. Smaller Turkish crop expectations and higher intervention prices from the Turkish Grain Board are supporting farmgate values and limiting free-market supply. Georgian hazelnuts are increasingly relevant as a diversification source for European buyers, although quality issues remain. Chile is also expanding its processing capacity, but its near-term impact on global supply is expected to remain limited.
• In the US, Oregon hazelnut growers recorded a 67% increase in prices last season. While higher returns improve grower income, they can also create tax and financial planning considerations, making strategies such as Schedule J and deductible expenses relevant for producers managing unusually high income.

Global Nuts Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• United States (peanuts/groundnuts): USDA has revised the 2026 crop estimate down to 5,270,000,000 pounds, a 27% year on year decline, driven primarily by acreage loss rather than yield failure. Planted acreage stands at 1,410,000 acres, down 1% month on month and 28% from last year. September yield estimates were adjusted from 3,956 to 3,179 pounds per acre, and while yields have improved by 111 to 112 pounds per acre versus last year, the gain is insufficient to offset the nearly 30% drop in planted area. Trade is currently subdued as farmers transition to harvest, though compressed processing margins, higher replacement costs, and basis appreciation are expected as post harvest procurement normalizes, with reduced forward balances posing a binding risk to domestic stock to use ratios.
• Nigeria (cashew): The country's first nationally validated cashew sector policy framework (2025 to 2035) was unveiled at the ACA conference in Accra and validated in July 2026, targeting annual production of 1,000,000 tons and 50% domestic processing by 2035. Current production stands at 300,000 to 350,000 tons annually, with over 85% exported as raw cashew nuts. Of 25 processing factories built, only around 15 are operational, many below capacity, with a core constraint being productivity, as Nigerian yields of 250 to 300 kilograms per hectare lag Ghana's over 900 kilograms per hectare. The framework focuses on distributing CRIN certified grafted varieties to lift yields without expanding cultivated area, and while the government has avoided a statutory RCN export ban, it plans to boost processor competitiveness through financing, incentives, and infrastructure.
• Ghana (cashew): Facing challenges meeting value addition goals due to a binding price constraint, with the Ministry of Food and Agriculture and TCDA pushing for more domestic processing investment and tighter value chain regulation. A mandated minimum producer price of GHC 12.0 per kilogram, over 50% above the subregional range, is straining domestic processors, who lack the scale and financing of well capitalized foreign buyers dominating sourcing around Sampa and border areas. Without targeted interventions such as supply retention mechanisms, subsidized credit, or tax relief, the domestic processing sector risks further contraction.

Global Nuts Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Vietnam (cashew): Exporters are facing potential counterparty fraud in Italy, where ENA Food Company sold cashews via S&K Global Trading LLC destined for Italia Cash and Carry SRL. Despite a $100,000 payment, delivery discrepancies emerged, with DHL claiming document delivery, the Italian bank denying custody, and the buyer holding originals, a dispute with parallels to a 2022 incident involving the same legal representation. Negotiations center on refund demands versus cost deductions, with Yang Ming Shipping Line managing the shipment, and risk exposure spanning dozens of similar transactions due to the RCN and kernel pricing mismatch. Aging orchards and expensive imports are further squeezing processor margins, with the RCN kernel spread a key indicator to monitor for signs of processing capacity idling.
• Kyrgyzstan (pistachio): Despite vast pistachio forests, production is hindered by low yields and export quality issues. The predominantly state owned, naturally grown forests suffer from high male tree ratios and variable seed grown quality. Chinese interest has wavered on standardization and regulatory challenges, leaving trade limited to Uzbekistan and Turkey, with weak infrastructure compounding logistics issues. The sector's global impact remains negligible, with improvement contingent on domestic policy reform.
• Global (macadamia, Australia, South Africa, Kenya, China): The market is moving into oversupply as maturing plantations drive production higher against stagnant demand, pushing prices down and raising insolvency risk. Heavy rainfall in South Africa and a strong rand are pressuring margins, prompting a strategic shift toward premium differentiation. Duty adjustments are reshaping competition, with Chinese exports to the EU rising notably, while inventory overhangs and below cost pricing remain key risks, pushing processors to target new markets like India. Stock carryover, kernel quality after rainfall, and EU/US consumer behavior remain top watch points.
• Georgia (almond): Yields are rising but remain below potential due to adverse weather. Exports are contracting on external price pressure despite improved quality, while imports have also fallen amid significant price hikes. Global influence remains minor, with focus on whether higher domestic output substitutes imports or targets Russia.
• India and Georgia (walnut): India's production is high but export performance weak due to value chain deficiencies, including unprocessed raw sales and outdated orchards, prompting calls for diversified value added offerings and better processing infrastructure. In Georgia, upstream collection and storage bottlenecks persist despite adequate downstream processing, with harvest degradation risk tied to a domestic capital shortfall, though global impact stays minimal.
• Georgia, Spain, Turkey (hazelnut): Georgia's stable output is benefiting from recovering EU confidence and new Uzbek market access, though export prices remain pressured, with a favorable Turkish harvest outlook. Exporters are advised to defend price premiums and secure Q1 2027 contracts ahead of potential Turkish competition. In Spain's Camp de Tarragona, production is recovering post drought but remains minor versus global leaders, constrained by environmental and phytosanitary factors, with prices down from previous campaigns despite rising demand.

Global Nuts Market Weekly Summary

• Ghana's cashew sector is seeking to unlock additional value from cashew apples, which currently spoil rapidly and represent a significant source of waste and lost income. The MA Cash Initiative aims to extend their shelf life and develop new economic opportunities, while supply chain and financing structures that favor raw nut exports continue to limit domestic value addition.
• In the United States, pistachio production is expected to decline in 2026 due to adverse weather during the bloom cycle, increasing the availability of blank nuts. Similar production challenges are affecting Iran and Turkey, while declining orchard investment raises concerns about future supply. Turkey's hazelnut market remains relatively stable, supported by government pricing measures, although producers continue to face competition from Georgia and suppliers in the Americas.
• Australia's macadamia industry is repositioning itself around quality and sustainability, with the aim of strengthening its premium market position and establishing stronger global benchmarks. California's almond industry continues to benefit from steady demand, although flat performance and smaller kernel sizes remain challenges.
• Almond trade flows are also shifting. Australia's access to China has benefited from favorable trade arrangements, while US suppliers face tariff barriers and logistical challenges. Despite higher unit prices and broader economic pressures, demand for shelled almonds remains strong, pointing to changing consumption patterns and evolving relationships between buyers and suppliers.