Global Nuts Market Summary

• Groundnut cultivation in Rajasthan, India, has expanded by 23.57 percent, reaching 7.13 lakh hectares as farmers continue to favor the crop due to strong edible oil demand, valuable livestock feed byproducts, consistent market returns, and government support. However, timely monsoon rainfall remains critical, as many farms depend on rain-fed cultivation and delayed rainfall could disrupt sowing and impact yields.
• In Tanzania, a shortage of powdered sulfur is creating risks for the upcoming cashew season by limiting crop protection during peak spraying periods. This could reduce both yields and quality, potentially affecting global cashew supplies and supporting international prices despite the country's ambitious production targets.
• The episode also explores changing dynamics in the global cashew industry as African producers expand domestic processing capacity and introduce export policies aimed at retaining more value locally. These developments could gradually challenge Vietnam's long-standing dominance in global cashew processing and reshape international trade flows.
• In the United States, the pistachio sector recorded its strongest May export performance in nearly six years, contributing to record seasonal shipments. However, declining inventories and expectations for a smaller upcoming crop may tighten supplies and influence future pricing.
• The global almond market remains mixed. Spain's exports have weakened due to reduced shipments within Europe, creating opportunities for competing exporters such as the United States and Australia. Meanwhile, stable production forecasts in California could help balance global supply, although persistent water constraints continue to pose long-term production risks.
• The hazelnut market is expected to face downward price pressure as improved crop prospects in Turkey and Georgia increase available supplies. While demand from the confectionery and chocolate industries remains steady, future production outcomes will depend heavily on favorable weather and effective crop management throughout the season.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Groundnut cultivation in Chitradurga district, where around 100,000 hectares are typically planted, is under pressure due to inadequate rainfall ahead of the early July planting season. Although moderate rainfall is forecast, concerns remain that it may arrive too late or be insufficient to support proper germination and early crop development. Higher fertilizer costs are adding further financial strain, making planting decisions more difficult for growers.
• The challenging weather has also affected other crops across the region. Sunflower has experienced widespread germination failures, while maize planting remains well behind target levels, highlighting broader soil moisture deficiencies. These conditions reinforce concerns that groundnut planting could also fall short of expectations.
• A reduction in planted area would tighten local groundnut supplies, affecting crushers, procurement activity, and regional groundnut oil markets. Lower production could lead to firmer prices for groundnut oil and related products as supply availability declines.
• The episode highlights the importance of closely monitoring rainfall patterns and temperature conditions during the first half of July, as this period will be critical for planting success and early crop establishment. If weather conditions fail to improve, the region could face meaningful reductions in both acreage and yield, with lasting consequences for farmers, supply chains, and regional market dynamics.

Global Nuts Market Weekly Summary

• In Bangladesh, the sandbars of the Padma River in the Rajshahi and Chapainawabganj districts have become an unlikely hub for groundnut cultivation during the Rabi season. With support from the Department of Agricultural Extension and the Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture, coverage has reached 1,100 to 1,500 bighas, with yields of 298 to 373 kilograms per bigha. Production costs of 10,000 to 15,000 taka per bigha are generating earnings of 45,000 to 50,000 taka, delivering profit margins of 30,000 to 35,000 taka per bigha. The initiative is meaningfully improving incomes in char communities that had previously relied on marginal agricultural activity.
• Nigeria's cashew sector is targeting export earnings of 867 trillion naira (approximately $632 million) by 2026, with Vietnam among the key destination markets. High freight costs driven by geopolitical disruptions remain a constraint. Domestically, less than 10% of cashew output is currently processed locally, but this is set to change with planned investment from Robust International in a new processing facility, in line with the National Cashew Association of Nigeria's push for greater value retention at origin. In Cote d'Ivoire's Berete region, coordinated group sales have enabled producers to adhere to mandated prices and quality standards, resulting in over 550 tons of cashews being evacuated through organised channels, providing price stability and improved market reliability.
• China has taken a significant policy step by opening its markets to all African nations that maintain diplomatic ties with the country, applying unified inspection and sanitary requirements to simplify the import process. This diversification of sourcing could redraw trade flows and exert competitive pressure on established cashew processing hubs in Vietnam and India.
• Iran's Rafsanjan region is maintaining pistachio export volumes at 25,000 tons despite maritime transport difficulties, with innovations in routing and cold storage infrastructure sustaining performance. The outlook is nonetheless cautious, with anticipated declines in national production posing a challenge to maintaining current export levels. In Afghanistan's Herat province, efforts are underway to expand irrigated pistachio orchards across 2,500 hectares, leveraging the region's suitability for drought-resistant crops and targeting both commercial returns and ecological benefits including improved water management and soil preservation. California's pistachio sector continues to record strong shipment and export growth, with strategic farming adaptations cited as central to maintaining its global market position ahead of potential El Nino-related climate disruption.

Global nuts market summary

• In Iran, pistachio exports to the European Union remained resilient during the first quarter of 2026 despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Export values increased slightly year over year, supported by a strategic shift toward higher-value pistachio kernels. Kernel exports rose modestly, while in-shell pistachio exports declined significantly, reflecting changing preferences among European buyers. Although imports by Germany decreased, stronger demand from other EU member states offset the decline, indicating a broader diversification of European purchasing patterns and continued demand for value-added products.
• South Africa's pistachio industry is positioning itself for long-term growth, targeting a 5% to 8% share of the global export market. Industry plans aim to expand annual production to approximately 60,000 metric tons by the late 2030s, supported by favorable international prices and supply gaps in Northern Hemisphere markets. Growth is concentrated in the Northern Cape region along the Orange River, although producers continue to face challenges related to climate suitability, water availability, and the need for significant investment in efficient production systems.
• In Turkey, hazelnut exports declined by 30.6% between January and May 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. Despite lower shipment volumes, export revenues increased by 16.3%, driven by a sharp rise in unit values. Average export prices climbed substantially, highlighting strong global demand and tighter supply conditions. Turkey continues to strengthen its position as the world's leading hazelnut supplier by expanding into emerging markets, particularly in Africa, reducing its reliance on traditional European destinations and improving its long-term market resilience.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Global pistachio production is projected at 701,000 tons for the current season, a 36.4% decline from the prior year, driven by the confluence of natural alternate bearing cycles, adverse weather, and regional production constraints. Global ending stocks are anticipated to fall 48.5% to 123,400 tons, pointing to a materially tighter supply environment and intensified procurement competition against a backdrop of steady demand.
• The United States is forecast to produce 350,000 tons, a 51.6% decline, attributable to alternate bearing compounded by high temperatures during bloom that caused bloom stress, reduced nut set, uneven cluster formation, and flower drop.
• Iran is projected at 130,000 tons, a 42.2% decline, reflecting the combined effect of alternate bearing and severe drought conditions.
• Turkey is on course for a 36.5% production increase to 156,400 tons, representing a partial recovery driven by favorable cycle positioning, though ongoing drought and irrigation constraints are keeping output below 2024/25 levels. Syria, Australia, and Greece are also expected to post production gains, while Italy faces a substantial decline.
• Afghanistan's historic pistachio belt is undergoing reforestation efforts targeting 200,000,000 trees by 2030, though severe drought is threatening sapling survival rates. Community-based forest management is central to the initiative, with near-term commercial supply implications remaining minimal as the program remains in an ecological restoration phase.
• Spain's almond production for 2026/27 is forecast at 135,250 metric tons, a 6.6% year-on-year increase, supported by new orchard maturation and a 6% expansion in planted area. Andalusia and Catalonia are leading output growth, while Castilla La Mancha is facing weather-related yield pressure. The organic segment has been additionally impacted by frost, though the national outlook remains constructive overall.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Turkey's hazelnut market is operating under the shadow of domestic political instability following the removal of opposition leader Ozgur Ozel, which triggered protests and a surge in foreign currency demand. The central bank has maintained exchange rate stability thus far, and physical supply chains and production remain unaffected. However, rising government bond yields and elevated local financing costs are pressuring suppliers, who may be incentivized to offload stocks prematurely, adding downward price pressure. In-shell hazelnut prices are currently stable at TRY 170 per kilogram, with FOB Istanbul prices for natural 11-13mm hazelnuts at $9.17 per kilogram and natural 13-15mm at $10.56 per kilogram. Turkish export shipments declined in early 2026 due to a smaller crop and tighter quality controls.
• Buyer sentiment is broadly cautious. Major end-users including Ferrero are bidding at low levels, particularly for giresun-quality nuts, and are deliberately delaying purchases in anticipation of further price softening supported by favorable crop forecasts and ample carryover inventories. The Turkish Grain Board's pricing stance for raw nuts is the primary counterweight to this expectation, and its intervention level will be decisive for market direction. Without active board engagement, trading volumes are at risk of remaining subdued against a backdrop of elevated capital costs.
• Georgia is gaining ground in the EU premium segment, with natural 13-15mm hazelnuts trading at approximately EUR 10.90 per kilogram. Favorable weather conditions have supported stable supply without weather-driven price disruption, sustaining a consistent premium. Georgia's improving kernel quality is increasingly capturing EU buyers that would previously have sourced Turkish origin, representing a medium-term structural challenge to Turkey's dominant export position. If EU demand strengthens, a divergence between stable Georgian prices and firming Turkish kernel prices is a plausible near-term outcome.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• The cashew sector is pivoting toward value chain diversification by capitalizing on the underutilized cashew apple byproduct. A national workshop on sustainable cashew production highlighted the potential to convert cashew apples into food, beverage, and extracted products (such as pectin), thereby generating supplementary income streams alongside traditional nut revenues. This diversification approach could stabilize grower and processor incomes while reducing waste and maximizing plant utility from the entire cashew tree.
• Sustainable production practices are critical to realizing cashew apple value chain potential. Key focus areas include developing improved cultivars, enhancing orchard management, advancing pest and disease control, and optimizing post-harvest protocols to maintain both nut quality and apple usability. Standardization and farmer knowledge transfer of these methods are essential to ensure consistent product quality and market viability across producing regions.
• Cashew apple processing faces significant logistical constraints requiring infrastructure investment. The fruit's high perishability necessitates efficient collection and processing systems located near orchard sites. Successful execution also requires compliance with food safety standards, clear product labeling for regulatory approval and consumer acceptance, and deployment of small-scale equipment alongside farmer training in handling and processing techniques. These infrastructure requirements present both barriers to entry and opportunities for organized value chain development.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Bangladesh's cashew industry is grappling with severe market challenges, primarily due to the impact of cheaper imported cashews, which are undermining local processor competitiveness. The production cost for local processors is approximately TK 1,300 per kilogram excluding profits. However, imported cashew kernels priced between TK 1,400 and TK 1,500 per kilogram undercut the necessary selling price of TK 1,950 to TK 2,000 per kilogram required for local processors to remain viable.
• A crucial factor is the tax differential between imported cashews with testa (skin) taxed at $4.1 per kilogram and processed cashews taxed at $6 per kilogram, resulting in a tax advantage of TK 101 to TK 107. This has catalyzed a significant shift in import trends, with cashews with testa surging from negligible amounts in fiscal year 2024 to 87% in the first ten months of fiscal year 2026. Consequently, domestic investment is stalling, and local cashew farms are witnessing plummeting prices due to decreased procurement by processors striving to compete with more affordable imports.
• In response to these pressures, the Bangladeshi government is deliberating potential changes to import valuation mechanisms and customs classifications to alleviate strains on domestic processors. The current customs valuation misalignment allows imported cashews to undercut local market prices, thereby discouraging investment in domestic processing. Authorities are reviewing policies concerning these valuation rules, with revisions potentially featuring in the forthcoming national budget to address these discrepancies and support local industry viability.
• The influx of cheaper imports compels local processors to operate below breakeven levels, inciting operational losses and diminishing procurement from region-specific cashew farms, particularly affecting areas like Rangameedi. Farm gate prices for raw cashews have dropped from TK 6,000 to TK 6,500 per month to TK 4,800 to TK 5,200 per month. Since cashew cultivation area expanded substantially post-2021 involving roughly 3,500 farmers, the present market dynamics threaten these farmers' economic stability. Policy realignments are essential to develop a competitive stance for the local cashew industry while safeguarding the livelihoods of farmers who rely on this crop across Bangladesh.