Global Nuts Market Summary

• Global pistachio production is projected at 701,000 tons for the current season, a 36.4% decline from the prior year, driven by the confluence of natural alternate bearing cycles, adverse weather, and regional production constraints. Global ending stocks are anticipated to fall 48.5% to 123,400 tons, pointing to a materially tighter supply environment and intensified procurement competition against a backdrop of steady demand.
• The United States is forecast to produce 350,000 tons, a 51.6% decline, attributable to alternate bearing compounded by high temperatures during bloom that caused bloom stress, reduced nut set, uneven cluster formation, and flower drop.
• Iran is projected at 130,000 tons, a 42.2% decline, reflecting the combined effect of alternate bearing and severe drought conditions.
• Turkey is on course for a 36.5% production increase to 156,400 tons, representing a partial recovery driven by favorable cycle positioning, though ongoing drought and irrigation constraints are keeping output below 2024/25 levels. Syria, Australia, and Greece are also expected to post production gains, while Italy faces a substantial decline.
• Afghanistan's historic pistachio belt is undergoing reforestation efforts targeting 200,000,000 trees by 2030, though severe drought is threatening sapling survival rates. Community-based forest management is central to the initiative, with near-term commercial supply implications remaining minimal as the program remains in an ecological restoration phase.
• Spain's almond production for 2026/27 is forecast at 135,250 metric tons, a 6.6% year-on-year increase, supported by new orchard maturation and a 6% expansion in planted area. Andalusia and Catalonia are leading output growth, while Castilla La Mancha is facing weather-related yield pressure. The organic segment has been additionally impacted by frost, though the national outlook remains constructive overall.