Global Nuts Market Summary

• West Africa's cashew sector is heading towards a near-record crop for the 2026/27 season, supported by improved yields in Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria. Rising Asian demand is expected to lift regional raw cashew nut exports, although accumulated global stocks, softer prices and quality concerns are limiting the scope for a sustained market recovery.
• Côte d'Ivoire's production is forecast at 970,000 tonnes, up 6% year on year, while Nigeria's output is expected to rise 5% to 280,000 tonnes. By contrast, localized drought in Burkina Faso and Ghana is constraining production, with both countries expected to record slight declines. West African raw cashew nut exports are projected to increase 8%, with India and Vietnam remaining the principal buyers. Port congestion continues to cause some shipping delays, although logistics have improved compared with previous seasons.
• In Côte d'Ivoire, raw cashew nut prices are around $1.20-$1.32 per kilogram, approximately 10% below last year's peak. Currency pressures and carryover stocks are weighing on prices, while inconsistent kernel sizes and higher moisture levels are increasing the importance of quality control as buyer specifications tighten.
• The outlook remains exposed to weather volatility, geopolitical disruptions and uncertainty over Chinese demand. Asia's concentration of processing capacity leaves the supply chain vulnerable to shipping bottlenecks, while large existing inventories could delay price recovery even as consumption improves. Export continuity relative to raw material availability will be a key indicator of near-term market direction.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Tanzania has opened the 2026-27 cashew season targeting 750,000 tonnes, a 21.3% increase year on year. Government support includes subsidized sulfur and pesticide distribution, although shortages in Mtwara and Lindi could constrain production growth.
• Mozambique expects cashew output to fall 28.4% to 146,000 tonnes, despite raising its farm-gate reference price to 48 meticais per kilogram. Higher export levies and stricter anti-smuggling penalties aim to regulate trade but could increase costs for traders.
• In California's Yolo County, pistachio crop value nearly doubled in 2025, supported by maturing orchards and favorable prices. However, rising fertilizer and labor costs threaten profitability. In southern France, growers are considering pistachios as an alternative to vineyards amid weakness in the wine market, although transition costs remain a barrier.
• Ukraine is exploring almond cultivation in drought-prone southern regions as domestic demand grows and import dependence persists. Expanding irrigated orchards will be important to increasing local supply. Meanwhile, Pakistan has introduced revised customs valuations for imported almonds based on shell type, with provisions for appeals under the Customs Act.
• Overall, the outlook depends on reliable agricultural inputs, production costs, infrastructure investment and the effectiveness of trade policies. Expanding domestic processing and cultivation capacity will remain important to improving competitiveness and meeting demand.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• In Texas, peanut acreage has fallen to approximately 145,000 acres for 2026 following the previous season's surplus and weaker prices. Organic peanut acreage has also declined by 25%. Prolonged extreme heat and irrigation constraints threaten yields, making final production dependent on water availability and harvest conditions.
• Nigeria's cashew sector is seeking to improve tax administration and domestic processing capacity. The country reportedly loses around $1.3 billion annually by exporting unprocessed nuts, while inadequate electricity, logistics and security challenges limit local processors' competitiveness.
• Afghanistan's almond production has declined 20% year on year due to drought, encouraging farmers to consider higher-value, lower-water varieties. In contrast, Spain's expected bumper harvest could increase European supply, while US almond valuations remain strong despite reduced acreage.
• In the walnut market, France's Grenoble PDO has added the Frenor variety to diversify production and modestly improve yields. However, global oversupply, including strong Ukrainian production, is intensifying competition, while favorable trade conditions are supporting US producers.
• Georgia's hazelnut industry faces rising labor costs that threaten harvesting, maintenance and future productivity. Turkey retains its competitive advantage through scale, while steady but modest demand increases the importance of quality and cost control for Georgian exporters.