Global Nuts Market Summary

• Groundnut cultivation in Rajasthan, India, has expanded by 23.57 percent, reaching 7.13 lakh hectares as farmers continue to favor the crop due to strong edible oil demand, valuable livestock feed byproducts, consistent market returns, and government support. However, timely monsoon rainfall remains critical, as many farms depend on rain-fed cultivation and delayed rainfall could disrupt sowing and impact yields.
• In Tanzania, a shortage of powdered sulfur is creating risks for the upcoming cashew season by limiting crop protection during peak spraying periods. This could reduce both yields and quality, potentially affecting global cashew supplies and supporting international prices despite the country's ambitious production targets.
• The episode also explores changing dynamics in the global cashew industry as African producers expand domestic processing capacity and introduce export policies aimed at retaining more value locally. These developments could gradually challenge Vietnam's long-standing dominance in global cashew processing and reshape international trade flows.
• In the United States, the pistachio sector recorded its strongest May export performance in nearly six years, contributing to record seasonal shipments. However, declining inventories and expectations for a smaller upcoming crop may tighten supplies and influence future pricing.
• The global almond market remains mixed. Spain's exports have weakened due to reduced shipments within Europe, creating opportunities for competing exporters such as the United States and Australia. Meanwhile, stable production forecasts in California could help balance global supply, although persistent water constraints continue to pose long-term production risks.
• The hazelnut market is expected to face downward price pressure as improved crop prospects in Turkey and Georgia increase available supplies. While demand from the confectionery and chocolate industries remains steady, future production outcomes will depend heavily on favorable weather and effective crop management throughout the season.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Groundnut cultivation in Chitradurga district, where around 100,000 hectares are typically planted, is under pressure due to inadequate rainfall ahead of the early July planting season. Although moderate rainfall is forecast, concerns remain that it may arrive too late or be insufficient to support proper germination and early crop development. Higher fertilizer costs are adding further financial strain, making planting decisions more difficult for growers.
• The challenging weather has also affected other crops across the region. Sunflower has experienced widespread germination failures, while maize planting remains well behind target levels, highlighting broader soil moisture deficiencies. These conditions reinforce concerns that groundnut planting could also fall short of expectations.
• A reduction in planted area would tighten local groundnut supplies, affecting crushers, procurement activity, and regional groundnut oil markets. Lower production could lead to firmer prices for groundnut oil and related products as supply availability declines.
• The episode highlights the importance of closely monitoring rainfall patterns and temperature conditions during the first half of July, as this period will be critical for planting success and early crop establishment. If weather conditions fail to improve, the region could face meaningful reductions in both acreage and yield, with lasting consequences for farmers, supply chains, and regional market dynamics.

Global Nuts Market Weekly Summary

• In Bangladesh, the sandbars of the Padma River in the Rajshahi and Chapainawabganj districts have become an unlikely hub for groundnut cultivation during the Rabi season. With support from the Department of Agricultural Extension and the Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture, coverage has reached 1,100 to 1,500 bighas, with yields of 298 to 373 kilograms per bigha. Production costs of 10,000 to 15,000 taka per bigha are generating earnings of 45,000 to 50,000 taka, delivering profit margins of 30,000 to 35,000 taka per bigha. The initiative is meaningfully improving incomes in char communities that had previously relied on marginal agricultural activity.
• Nigeria's cashew sector is targeting export earnings of 867 trillion naira (approximately $632 million) by 2026, with Vietnam among the key destination markets. High freight costs driven by geopolitical disruptions remain a constraint. Domestically, less than 10% of cashew output is currently processed locally, but this is set to change with planned investment from Robust International in a new processing facility, in line with the National Cashew Association of Nigeria's push for greater value retention at origin. In Cote d'Ivoire's Berete region, coordinated group sales have enabled producers to adhere to mandated prices and quality standards, resulting in over 550 tons of cashews being evacuated through organised channels, providing price stability and improved market reliability.
• China has taken a significant policy step by opening its markets to all African nations that maintain diplomatic ties with the country, applying unified inspection and sanitary requirements to simplify the import process. This diversification of sourcing could redraw trade flows and exert competitive pressure on established cashew processing hubs in Vietnam and India.
• Iran's Rafsanjan region is maintaining pistachio export volumes at 25,000 tons despite maritime transport difficulties, with innovations in routing and cold storage infrastructure sustaining performance. The outlook is nonetheless cautious, with anticipated declines in national production posing a challenge to maintaining current export levels. In Afghanistan's Herat province, efforts are underway to expand irrigated pistachio orchards across 2,500 hectares, leveraging the region's suitability for drought-resistant crops and targeting both commercial returns and ecological benefits including improved water management and soil preservation. California's pistachio sector continues to record strong shipment and export growth, with strategic farming adaptations cited as central to maintaining its global market position ahead of potential El Nino-related climate disruption.