Global Maize Market Summary

• Ukraine faces severe logistical constraints, including an estimated 8-11 million tonne storage deficit, reduced port capacity and high overland freight costs. Farmgate prices have fallen below government minimums, squeezing producer margins and threatening harvest completion. These pressures could reduce maize planting by as much as 50% in 2027, with farmers potentially shifting towards soybeans and sunflower.
• The United States is providing a major supply buffer through an almost record crop and elevated yields. However, export commitments remain 31% below last year, while weaker inspections, softer prices and reduced managed-fund positions reflect subdued demand. Domestic ethanol demand and policy support offer some relief, but large ending stocks remain a bearish factor.
• Argentina has emerged as the global price leader, with competitive FOB offers supporting record shipment volumes and challenging US export competitiveness. Brazil's record production is being absorbed heavily by domestic feed and ethanol demand, limiting export potential. Weather risks to first-crop planting could also affect the safrinha crop, while weaker Iranian demand has contributed to lower export expectations. In the European Union, a poor maize harvest is driving increased imports from the United States and Argentina.
• China's lower feed consumption outlook, rising stocks and negative import margins are weighing on demand, with sorghum increasingly displacing maize. In India, expanding ethanol mandates are strengthening industrial demand for maize, although higher domestic prices could threaten the economics of ethanol projects and complicate blending targets.

Global Wheat Market Summary

• Kazakhstan’s wheat flour exports rose 24.5% year on year to 1.376 million tonnes in January-August 2026, with revenue increasing 39.6% to $399.9 million. Afghanistan accounted for nearly 64% of exports. However, a smaller wheat crop, higher rail tariffs and restrictions on Russian wheat imports could raise costs and complicate export targets.
• Russia’s large harvest is being undermined by reduced Black Sea loading capacity, redirecting shipments towards Baltic ports and disrupting trade with traditional buyers such as Egypt, Turkey and Iran. Domestic wheat prices have fallen to an eight-year low. In the United States, weak export demand and rising projected ending stocks are weighing on futures.
• Argentina’s 2026/27 production forecast has risen to 23.8 million tonnes, its second-largest crop, creating opportunities to replace disrupted Black Sea supplies. However, high input costs and logistical bottlenecks could limit exports. Ukraine also faces shipment delays and weak farmer margins, while France’s production estimate has edged lower.
• Import-dependent markets face mounting cost pressures. Brazil is contending with higher fuel and freight expenses, while Turkey’s reduced access to Russian wheat is squeezing milling margins. Pakistan faces irrigation shortages and rising production costs. In contrast, India’s record production outlook and strong public stocks support domestic availability, while favorable weather is improving China’s winter wheat planting prospects.

Global Wheat Market Summary

• The global wheat market remains driven by logistical constraints rather than outright supply shortages. Although global stocks appear ample, the tradable surplus is shrinking to levels last seen in 2007/08, leaving the market vulnerable to disruptions.
• US wheat faces a bearish outlook as sluggish exports and uncompetitive pricing limit demand. Meanwhile, Russian deepwater port capacity is reportedly operating at just 10% of normal levels, restricting export flows and creating uncertainty across global markets.
• Market sentiment remains cautious, but any escalation of Black Sea disruptions could trigger short covering and sharp price volatility. Export logistics and the availability of tradable supplies will remain key factors shaping wheat prices.

Global Maize Market Summary

• The European Union’s output has fallen to a 20-year low, creating a 10.1-million-tonne shortfall and increasing reliance on imports, while drought and export constraints threaten supplies across Africa and parts of Asia.
• In the United States, production remains substantial despite regional yield losses. Mexico is strengthening its position as the leading US export destination, while Chinese demand is weakening. Argentina’s record harvest and competitive prices are helping replace missing Ukrainian supplies, particularly in North Africa.
• Brazil’s expanding ethanol demand is limiting export availability and forcing lower export targets. Ukraine’s logistics crisis has reduced export capacity to around 20% of normal levels, with storage shortages threatening harvest operations. Russia, meanwhile, is increasing production and expanding its competitiveness in Southeast Asia through lower prices and improved port capacity.
• In Asia, China is reducing US corn imports while monitoring domestic climate risks and potential Russian supplies. India’s kharif maize outlook faces regional yield pressures from uneven rainfall. Across Africa, Nigeria is becoming more dependent on imports, while drought in East Africa, particularly Kenya, is intensifying supply shortages and food security concerns. Overland transport constraints further complicate deliveries.
• The market remains finely balanced, with export execution, trade policies and weather conditions likely to determine price direction. The ability of the United States and Argentina to meet rising import demand will be critical to easing regional shortages and stabilizing global supplies.

Global Wheat Market Summary.

• Russia’s strong 2026 harvest is being undermined by export bottlenecks, with key ports operating well below capacity. Supply is accumulating domestically, pushing prices below production costs for some farmers. Ukraine faces similar challenges, relying on less efficient Danube ports and overland routes that increase costs and redirect exports towards nearer markets.
• The United States is losing export competitiveness due to a smaller harvest, a strong dollar and high freight costs. The European Union is benefiting from Black Sea disruptions, but reduced soft wheat production and quality concerns in Romania and Bulgaria limit its ability to replace Russian supplies fully. Kazakhstan also faces lower export prospects as production shortfalls and rising logistics costs disrupt its reliance on Russian grain.
• Import-dependent countries are adjusting to higher costs and changing supply routes. Egypt’s larger domestic crop is reducing import needs, while Nigeria and South Africa remain exposed to constrained Black Sea supplies. Pakistan faces fertilizer affordability challenges that could limit yields, while Saudi Arabia is prioritizing supply security by turning towards European suppliers.
• The wheat market is increasingly driven by export access and logistics rather than headline production figures alone. The recovery of critical Russian port capacity will be central to easing supply pressures, stabilizing trade flows and reducing regional price disparities.

Global Maize Market Summary

• In the United States, the USDA raised its 2026 yield forecast to 181.2 bushels per acre, lifting production to 16.034 billion bushels, the second-largest harvest on record. Export commitments remain 31% below last year, while persistent rainfall is delaying harvest progress. High input costs and fund liquidation are adding to market pressure.
• Brazil’s 2026/27 production is forecast at 148 million tonnes, supported by higher yields and expanded growing areas. Domestic consumption is projected at 104.81 million tonnes, driven by ethanol blending and feed demand, potentially limiting export availability. Meanwhile, Argentina’s expected 66-million-tonne crop and competitive export prices are intensifying competition for US supplies.
• China’s weaker feed demand and reduced import requirements add to the bearish outlook. Ukraine faces rising logistics costs and port disruptions, while the EU’s smaller harvest is increasing its need for imports. In India, favorable weather and the timely withdrawal of the monsoon are supporting harvest conditions.
• Overall, abundant US supply and competitive exports are offset by tighter inventories and regional supply constraints. December CBOT maize futures are being monitored within the 470.50 to 488 cents per bushel range, with Mexico remaining an important demand market.

Global Maize Market Summary

• In the United States, maize production is forecast at 406.3 million tons, the second-largest crop on record but 7.17% below the previous year's record. Yield estimates have been revised to 180.7 bushels per acre across approximately 35.82 million hectares. The USDA's September 1 Grain Stocks report showed 2.095 billion bushels, well above market expectations and contributing to fund liquidation and a decline in December corn prices. Harvest progress remains broadly in line with historical averages, although excessive rainfall in states such as Iowa has created risks of lodging, delayed harvesting and higher drying costs.
• Demand remains an important source of support, with strong US export commitments reinforcing the country's position as a major supplier to the European Union and Mexico. However, US exports face increasing price competition from other origins. In Brazil, production is forecast at 148 million tons, supported by a strong second crop, while pest pressure, water availability and changes such as the E30 ethanol mandate remain important factors for domestic stocks and demand.
• The European Union faces one of its weakest maize harvests in nearly two decades, with production projected at 48.6 million tons. The resulting import requirement is expected to increase dependence on US supplies, while logistical disruptions could create additional risks. Ukraine is forecast to produce around 32 million tons, but geopolitical tensions, limited port operations, storage shortages and unsold stocks from the previous crop continue to constrain exports and pressure local prices.
• Argentina is heading toward a record 66 million ton crop, supported by improved agronomic practices and higher yield potential. However, moisture conditions and narrow producer margins remain important considerations. Mexico is also expected to reach record maize import levels as drought in Sinaloa reduces domestic production, increasing its reliance on US supplies and exposing the market to supply chain risks.
• China is expected to achieve a strong harvest but remains below domestic consumption requirements. Strategic reserves and self-sufficiency policies provide a buffer, while moisture deficits and evolving trade relations with the United States could influence future purchasing patterns. Canada and South Africa are both positioned to contribute additional export supply, supported by favorable production and logistical conditions.
• India faces medium production risks due to inconsistent rainfall, while growing domestic biofuel demand has reduced export availability. Bangladesh continues to rely heavily on imports, primarily from Brazil but increasingly from the United States. Thailand's sustainability initiatives remain relevant to its agricultural strategy, although their near-term influence on global maize market dynamics is limited.

Global Wheat Market Summary:

• The global wheat market remains well supplied overall, but severe logistical disruptions in the Black Sea are creating a sharp divide between available supply and exportable supply. Russia's strong 2026 harvest is being undermined by attacks on key deepwater terminals, while Ukraine faces similar infrastructure constraints. The resulting reduction in export capacity is tightening physical markets, lifting replacement costs for importers, and putting further pressure on producers in Russia.
• In the European Union, lower production following last season's heat and drought has been partly offset by strong starting stocks in France and high-quality 2026 wheat. EU exports are outperforming last year's levels as buyers turn to European supplies amid Black Sea disruptions, although discrepancies in French export data complicate assessments of actual stock availability.
• The United States is facing a growing competitiveness problem, with production at historically low levels and wheat prices remaining above those of Black Sea origins. Export commitments and shipments continue to lag, while transportation and logistics costs further reduce US competitiveness in global markets.
• Elsewhere, Kazakhstan is moving toward greater domestic wheat processing and value addition rather than relying primarily on raw exports. India is balancing domestic market stability with renewed export activity after reversing its wheat export ban, while favorable weather conditions remain supportive despite concerns over early soil moisture. Ukraine's higher production is constrained by limited export routes, with reliance on the Danube corridor adding delays and costs.
• Pakistan continues to face pressure from high fertilizer costs and reduced subsidies, while policy efforts focus on stabilizing domestic wheat prices. In Kenya, farmers are shifting some acreage from wheat to higher-value barley, driven by demand from the brewing sector. Algeria is advancing a small-scale durum wheat project in the Sahara, while Uzbekistan is benefiting from increased Russian wheat imports to cover regional supply gaps.