Global Maize Market Summary

• Ukraine faces severe logistical constraints, including an estimated 8-11 million tonne storage deficit, reduced port capacity and high overland freight costs. Farmgate prices have fallen below government minimums, squeezing producer margins and threatening harvest completion. These pressures could reduce maize planting by as much as 50% in 2027, with farmers potentially shifting towards soybeans and sunflower.
• The United States is providing a major supply buffer through an almost record crop and elevated yields. However, export commitments remain 31% below last year, while weaker inspections, softer prices and reduced managed-fund positions reflect subdued demand. Domestic ethanol demand and policy support offer some relief, but large ending stocks remain a bearish factor.
• Argentina has emerged as the global price leader, with competitive FOB offers supporting record shipment volumes and challenging US export competitiveness. Brazil's record production is being absorbed heavily by domestic feed and ethanol demand, limiting export potential. Weather risks to first-crop planting could also affect the safrinha crop, while weaker Iranian demand has contributed to lower export expectations. In the European Union, a poor maize harvest is driving increased imports from the United States and Argentina.
• China's lower feed consumption outlook, rising stocks and negative import margins are weighing on demand, with sorghum increasingly displacing maize. In India, expanding ethanol mandates are strengthening industrial demand for maize, although higher domestic prices could threaten the economics of ethanol projects and complicate blending targets.

Global Wheat Market Summary

• Kazakhstan’s wheat flour exports rose 24.5% year on year to 1.376 million tonnes in January-August 2026, with revenue increasing 39.6% to $399.9 million. Afghanistan accounted for nearly 64% of exports. However, a smaller wheat crop, higher rail tariffs and restrictions on Russian wheat imports could raise costs and complicate export targets.
• Russia’s large harvest is being undermined by reduced Black Sea loading capacity, redirecting shipments towards Baltic ports and disrupting trade with traditional buyers such as Egypt, Turkey and Iran. Domestic wheat prices have fallen to an eight-year low. In the United States, weak export demand and rising projected ending stocks are weighing on futures.
• Argentina’s 2026/27 production forecast has risen to 23.8 million tonnes, its second-largest crop, creating opportunities to replace disrupted Black Sea supplies. However, high input costs and logistical bottlenecks could limit exports. Ukraine also faces shipment delays and weak farmer margins, while France’s production estimate has edged lower.
• Import-dependent markets face mounting cost pressures. Brazil is contending with higher fuel and freight expenses, while Turkey’s reduced access to Russian wheat is squeezing milling margins. Pakistan faces irrigation shortages and rising production costs. In contrast, India’s record production outlook and strong public stocks support domestic availability, while favorable weather is improving China’s winter wheat planting prospects.

Global Wheat Market Summary

• The global wheat market remains driven by logistical constraints rather than outright supply shortages. Although global stocks appear ample, the tradable surplus is shrinking to levels last seen in 2007/08, leaving the market vulnerable to disruptions.
• US wheat faces a bearish outlook as sluggish exports and uncompetitive pricing limit demand. Meanwhile, Russian deepwater port capacity is reportedly operating at just 10% of normal levels, restricting export flows and creating uncertainty across global markets.
• Market sentiment remains cautious, but any escalation of Black Sea disruptions could trigger short covering and sharp price volatility. Export logistics and the availability of tradable supplies will remain key factors shaping wheat prices.