Global Wheat Market Summary

• Turkmenistan has achieved its 2026 state wheat procurement target of 1.4 million tonnes, supported by drought adapted seed varieties and increased mechanization. Production remains focused on meeting domestic consumption, with only limited exports into Eurasian trade corridors. Although these exports contribute to regional supply, the country's relatively small production scale means it has little influence over broader Caspian Basin wheat markets, where Russia and Kazakhstan remain the dominant suppliers.
• Russia concluded the 2025-26 export season with an estimated 46 to 48 million tonnes of wheat exports, driven by strong demand from major buyers including Egypt and Turkey. Despite challenging market conditions, historically low domestic prices, and policy changes, Russia continues to leverage its extensive export infrastructure and geographic advantages to remain highly competitive. Its ability to offer wheat at lower prices continues to place downward pressure on global markets, with attention now shifting to whether export volumes can be maintained or expanded during the 2026-27 season.
• China recorded a modest 0.6 percent increase in wheat production during 2026, but late season rainfall reduced crop quality and increased the share of wheat suitable only for feed use. The country continues to prioritize food security by combining lower quality domestic supplies with imported higher grade wheat. The balance between domestic reserves and import requirements will remain an important factor to watch as China manages grain quality concerns while maintaining its long term self sufficiency strategy.