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Wheat Watch: Global Glut Weighs Down Prices

Wheat Watch: Global Glut Weighs Down Prices

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This is your Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome back to Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark, where we break down everything you need to know about the fast-moving world of wheat markets. Whether you’re a grower, a trader, or just wheat-curious, I’m here to guide you through what’s moving commodity wheat prices right now, the latest wheat news, and what to look for next.

It’s Thursday, October 30th, 2025, and there is plenty happening in the wheat markets. Let’s kick things off with today’s current wheat trading prices. At the Chicago Board of Trade, December wheat futures are down, with prices settling today at five dollars and twenty-four and three-quarter cents per bushel. Kansas City Hard Red Winter wheat is at five thirteen per bushel, and Minneapolis Spring Wheat for the December contract is trading around five fifty-six per bushel. So, across the major U.S. exchanges, we are seeing a softer tone compared to earlier in the week, with contracts generally trending four to ten cents lower.

So, why the dip? The major driver continues to be the overwhelming global supply. Argus Media recently reported that the world’s top eight wheat exporters could harvest a record four hundred twenty-one million tonnes this season. With total global supply projected at an eye-watering four hundred eighty-four million tonnes for twenty twenty-five to twenty-six, that is a huge amount of wheat looking for a home. When supply is this plentiful, prices tend to come under pressure because buyers simply are not forced to chase the market higher.

Adding even more weight, Russia is shipping out wheat at a rapid pace, with exports in October alone estimated at just over five million metric tons. Australia and Argentina are also looking at big crops, with Argentina likely to have its largest wheat output ever. That means the competitive pressure among exporters is high, especially as regions like North Africa and the Middle East are set to increase wheat imports but not enough to choke off this global glut.

What about the United States? So far, U.S. wheat exports have been steady, helped by some strong buying from international markets, but the overall tone remains weak. According to traders, the export sales report this week was expected to show between three hundred fifty thousand and nine hundred thousand metric tons of wheat sold. Yet, with ongoing delays in official export reports due to a government shutdown, market participants are flying a bit blind, which adds to day-to-day volatility.

Now, let’s zoom in on what this means for growers and buyers. If you are a wheat producer, it is more important than ever to focus on your cost of production and look for opportunities to lock in prices when brief rallies occur. For buyers, the current environment is creating some real opportunities to secure supply at relatively low prices, but keep an eye on potential risk factors like geopolitical tensions and labor strikes in key producing countries like Argentina, which could quickly change the outlook.

Before we wrap up, a quick reminder to watch the weather in major growing regions. While today’s mood is bearish, a surprise weather event in the United States Plains, the Black Sea, or Australia can still ignite quick rallies if new crop fears pop up.

That’s it for today’s episode of Daily Wheat Price Tracker. If you find this show helpful, please be sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks so much for listening, and join me next time for more up-to-the-minute wheat prices, trends, and tips. This is Vanessa Clark, wishing you a smooth and profitable trading day.

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