Wheat Rally Faces Headwinds: China Trade Hopes vs Global Glut Titelbild

Wheat Rally Faces Headwinds: China Trade Hopes vs Global Glut

Wheat Rally Faces Headwinds: China Trade Hopes vs Global Glut

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This is your Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey everyone, welcome back to Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. I'm your host Vanessa, and today is Wednesday, October 29th, 2025. Thanks so much for tuning in to our show where we break down what's happening in the wheat markets and what it means for you.

So let's jump right into what's moving the wheat market today. Wheat futures are showing mixed trading right now, but there's a lot of positive momentum we're seeing this week. As of today, wheat is trading at around 530 dollars per bushel, up about a quarter percent from yesterday. Now that might not sound like much, but here's where it gets interesting. Over the past month, wheat prices have jumped about four and a half percent, which is a pretty solid rally.

The big story driving wheat higher this week is trade optimism. There's renewed excitement around US China trade negotiations, and investors are really focused on a major meeting happening tomorrow between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. Last weekend, there was a preliminary deal framework discussed, and the US Treasury Secretary said China is expected to resume substantial purchases of US soybeans in the coming years. That kind of trade deal momentum is lifting the entire grain complex, including wheat.

Now, here's the reality check. Despite these trade gains, wheat prices are still down about seven and a half percent compared to a year ago. That's because global supply is really ample right now. Russia, one of the world's top wheat exporters, has raised its 2025 production forecast to 87 point 8 million metric tons, citing record yields in Siberia. Argentina is also projected to produce 23 million tons of wheat, matching their record production from a few years back.

On the export front, things are a bit softer. European Union soft wheat exports are actually down significantly. From July through October 26th, the EU has exported 6 point 2 million tons, compared to 7 point 9 million tons in the same period last year. That's a 21 percent decline year over year. Meanwhile, China is dealing with delayed wheat planting due to persistent autumn rains, but the government is launching a campaign to get farmers caught up.

Looking ahead, traders are expecting wheat exports this week to reach somewhere between 350,000 and 600,000 metric tons. And according to market forecasts, wheat is expected to trade around 505 dollars per bushel by the end of this quarter.

So here's the bottom line for anyone watching wheat. We're in a mixed market where trade optimism is battling global oversupply. The near term could see some volatility depending on how tomorrow's trade talks go, but the longer term picture still points to pressure from abundant global stocks.

Thanks so much for listening to Daily Wheat Price Tracker. This is Vanessa Clark reminding you to subscribe so you don't miss our next episode where we'll break down where wheat goes from here. See you next time.

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