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The company hires a new CHRO. The CEO introduces them like they've found the missing gear in the leadership machine. The board nods in relief. The executive team exhales.

And then, month by month, the narrative starts to shift.

Around month nine, the CEO starts offering compliments that land a little oddly. Around month 12, the tone tightens. And by month 15, the question isn't coded anymore: Are we getting the strategic partnership that we need?

This is part one of a two-part series naming the quiet pattern that ends CHRO tenures without a headline, without a blowup, and without a clean post-mortem. Today is the diagnosis. We unpack why this pattern exists and why it catches even experienced CHROs off guard.

The data is stark: 31% of first-time CHROs are fired in their first 18 months. 52% are fired within a year of a new CEO being appointed. The CHRO thinks they're doing a good job. The system is grading them against a job description that was never spoken.

What You'll Learn

The enterprise context that's changed:

• Strategy windows are shorter, margin pressure is higher
• Execution speed has become a competitive advantage
• Boards have less tolerance for slow-motion operating models
• What CEOs need from CHROs has changed, even when the language hasn't

Why the strategy gap exists:

• CFO and COO roles are standardized, CHRO expectations are all over the map
• "Strategic" means a dozen different things to different CEOs
• CHROs get hired into undefined versions and gravity takes over
• The CEO says strategic, the CHRO hears make HR better, but the CEO means see the business in systems

The boardroom diagnostic:

• The CEO opens with narrative, CFO sharpens with margin and cash, operators layer in execution risk
• If the CHRO talks about engagement trends and time to fill, they're running a parallel narrative
• Parallel narratives get trimmed first when the clock runs out

Four faulty assumptions that keep this pattern alive:

1. Delivering results automatically creates strategic credibility (early wins set the altitude of the role, you build credibility as an operator and get evaluated as an architect)
2. Strategic is a shared word that will align over time (ambiguity never stays neutral, it becomes muscle memory)
3. Experience protects you (it doesn't, prior success isn't portable unless you renegotiate the value equation)
4. The CHRO role has the same enterprise ceiling as the CFO (it doesn't, CHRO expectations depend entirely on the CEO)

Four diagnostic questions:

1. Is our business strategy inside the business model or sitting next to it? (Being in the room isn't being inside the model)
2. Are we rewarding operational reliability over strategic

You can subscribe to this podcast on your platform of choice. Just go to https://talentsherpapodcast.buzzsprout.com.

If you are a CHRO looking to start your AI transformation, please check out ⁠www.Getpropulsion.ai⁠. Scott and his team are creating a team of agentic teammates to enable your human capital leaders to focus on leading the business forward.

And don’t forget to visit ⁠www.mytalentsherpa.com⁠ where we have tools and coaching for CHROs to make an impact on day one, including the brand new CHRO Chronicles and the CHRO Ascent Academy. Also, if you want a Sherpa to guide your ascent, check out the work with me section.

Skyrocket your LinkedIn sales with Dripify! Automate outreach, personalize with AI, and contact hundreds of leads daily. Boost ROI by 40%, Try it now at https://try.dripify.com/talentsherpa

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Most CHROs lose credibility not because they fail, but because they succeed at the wrong things. They deliver what was asked, show up prepared, complete the work. And still, when critical conversations happen, the CEO routes elsewhere. This isn't a relationship problem. This is a forecast problem.

Jackson Lynch breaks down three ways CHROs train CEOs to discount their judgment—and five plays that create predictable accuracy.

What You'll Learn

The forecast problem: CEO deciding whether to move CFO out? They talk to board chair, not CHRO. Product org missing dates? They pull in COO. CHRO gets sanitized version two weeks later. Why? CEO cannot predict what CHRO will see.

Three ways CHROs lose credibility:

1. Overpromising timelines (say 4 weeks, deliver in 6)
2. Delaying hard truths (waiting to name underperformance)
3. Confusing activity with impact (updates disconnected from decisions)

What builds credibility: Being predictably accurate about what you can deliver, what you see as risk, what connects to business outcomes.

Five Plays to Create Predictable Accuracy

1. Optimize timelines for reliability, not speed Ask "how long when two people are on vacation?" not "how fast could this go?"

2. Name risk before you're asked "I'm seeing a pattern. Decisions are delayed, team escalates around them. That's creating drag in three areas..."

3. Connect every update to a CEO decision Ask "what decision does this inform?" If none, don't bring it.

4. Build a talent risk dashboard CEO actually looks at Answer: Do I have talent to execute strategy? Capability gaps? Succession risk in pivotal roles? Decision velocity by function?

5. Create standing "watching" agenda item Reserve 5 minutes weekly: "Three things I'm watching that might become decisions." Patterns forming, not problems yet.

Key Quotes

"Credibility is built on whether the CEO can predict your forecast. When they can, they pull you in earlier. When they can't, they route around you."

"Every time you miss a deadline, you're teaching the CEO your estimate is unreliable on everything else."

"The goal is to make it impossible for the CEO to make a critical decision without first asking what you see that they don't."

"Precision beats speed. Conservative timelines you hit build more trust than aggressive timelines you don't."

Four Takeaways

1. Credibility is built on whether CEO can predict your forecast
2. Most CHROs lose credibility by succeeding at wrong things
3. Goal is to make it impossible for CEO to decide without you
4. Precision beats speed—conservative timelines build trust

Until next time: Keep raising the bar, keep building predictable accuracy, and keep climbing.

You can subscribe to this podcast on your platform of choice. Just go to https://talentsherpapodcast.buzzsprout.com.

If you are a CHRO looking to start your AI transformation, please check out ⁠www.Getpropulsion.ai⁠. Scott and his team are creating a team of agentic teammates to enable your human capital leaders to focus on leading the business forward.

And don’t forget to visit ⁠www.mytalentsherpa.com⁠ where we have tools and coaching for CHROs to make an impact on day one, including the brand new CHRO Chronicles and the CHRO Ascent Academy. Also, if you want a Sherpa to guide your ascent, check out the work with me section.

Skyrocket your LinkedIn sales with Dripify! Automate outreach, personalize with AI, and contact hundreds of leads daily. Boost ROI by 40%, Try it now at https://try.dripify.com/talentsherpa

Send us a text

Most companies say trust matters, but when they run interviews, they only evaluate skills and polish. They focus on what candidates have rather than how they operate. And when you hire that way, you get predictably unpredictable results.

Lou Adler has spent over 50 years studying the difference between people who elevate an organization and the people leaders end up managing around. He's examined thousands of hires across roles, industries, and eras, and he keeps seeing the same 12 behavioral traits in every top performer. Those traits might also be the strongest predictors of trust on a team.

This is episode 100, and we're giving you a practical roadmap for hiring people who make the company better the moment they walk in the door.

What You'll Learn

Why recruiting feels broken:

• AI didn't break recruiting, it exposed it
• The system is optimizing funnels while ignoring clarity
• We're recruiting for static experience in a dynamic environment
• The best candidates aren't in funnels at all

The fundamental shift in how to hire:

• Why a job description listing skills is stupid
• How to define work as performance objectives, not person requirements
• The difference between screening for credentials vs. outcomes
• Why doing the wrong thing faster is still stupid

Lou's performance-based hiring method:

• Start with what a person needs to do, not who they need to be
• Define 4-5 key performance objectives (KPOs) for every role
• Test for excitement about the work, not excitement about getting the job
• Solve for motivation (the N factor) alongside ability

The 12 universal traits of top performers:

• Being proactive, seeing the big picture, understanding and influencing people
• Why ownership beyond boundaries predicts success
• How to assess traits that matter more than technical skills
• The importance of volunteering for things over your head

The hiring formula for success:

• Ability to do the work + Fit factors = Success
• Fit drives motivation (raised to the power of N)
• How to dig 5-6 layers deep into accomplishments
• Why you need evidence, not opinions, before making an offer

Key Quotes

"A job is stuff that people do. What you've defined is a person doing a job. Let's forget the person and let's define the work."

"Doing the wrong thing faster is stupid. If you're producing bad widgets, stop producing bad widgets. But in HR, we say, do you have any more bad candidates I can interview?"

"HR should throw away the existing hiring process and build it from scratch. They wouldn't do anything they're doing now."

"The ability to do the work is actually the easiest part to measure. Understanding perfo

You can subscribe to this podcast on your platform of choice. Just go to https://talentsherpapodcast.buzzsprout.com.

If you are a CHRO looking to start your AI transformation, please check out ⁠www.Getpropulsion.ai⁠. Scott and his team are creating a team of agentic teammates to enable your human capital leaders to focus on leading the business forward.

And don’t forget to visit ⁠www.mytalentsherpa.com⁠ where we have tools and coaching for CHROs to make an impact on day one, including the brand new CHRO Chronicles and the CHRO Ascent Academy. Also, if you want a Sherpa to guide your ascent, check out the work with me section.

Skyrocket your LinkedIn sales with Dripify! Automate outreach, personalize with AI, and contact hundreds of leads daily. Boost ROI by 40%, Try it now at https://try.dripify.com/talentsherpa