Episode 27 of the Retail Scoreboard unpacks January 2026 results and the renewed impact of inflation on Australian retail, using anonymised data from 100+ retailers to reveal what's really driving performance.

On the surface, January delivered a solid like-for-like sales lift of 2.3%. But beneath that headline number, the story is far more complex. Unit sales declined 2.7% and transactions were also down 2.7%, confirming that growth is not being driven by demand — it's being driven by price.

Gross profit dollars rose 3.7%, with GP% up 0.8 percentage points. Average transaction value climbed 5.7%, fuelled by a 5.1% rise in average selling price. Original ticket prices increased 3.7% year-on-year, with final sell prices up 2.7%, as softer discounting allowed more of the inflationary pressure to pass through to consumers.

The discussion explores:

• The return of inflation and why this is a major blow for retail in FY26
• Price as the only meaningful growth driver across the last three months
• Online performance, which continued its exceptional run with 10% growth
• Concessions (up 4.3%) and outlets (up 4.8%) outperforming standalone stores
• The growing pressure on physical retail, with standalone stores up just 0.4%
• State performance, with WA leading the way while QLD and VIC declined
• The structural cost pressures facing retailers — rising wages, CPI-linked rents, superannuation increases and store operating costs projected to rise 4–5%

We also zoom out to examine what retailers can realistically do next. With demand soft, costs rising and 2–3 potential rate rises still on the cards, the industry faces tough choices: raise prices, cut labour, restructure store networks — or absorb further margin pressure.

If the last few years have felt familiar, that's because they are. Inflation, wage growth, rent increases and cautious consumers have collided before. The question now is how retailers respond in FY26.

Want full access to The Retail Score Index and deeper January insights? Visit www.theretailscore.com

Episode 26 of the Retail Scoreboard delivers a full December 2025 Christmas and Boxing Day trading review, using anonymised data from 100+ Australian retailers to unpack how the peak period really performed.

This episode breaks down like-for-like growth across December, examining sales, units, transactions, margins and discounting to understand where growth came from — and where it didn't. While overall December sales finished up around 3%, the data shows a very uneven performance beneath the surface.

The discussion explores:

• Channel performance, with online delivering double-digit growth while standalone stores struggled to gain momentum

• Timing effects, including a late Christmas lift and a heavy reliance on Boxing Day to recover lost ground

• State-by-state results, highlighting softness across most regions and stronger outcomes in WA

• Discounting behaviour, revealing a clear two-channel strategy — markdown-led growth online and largely full-price trading in stores

• Physical retail pressure, with over half of physical stores recording a sales decline for the month

• Results vs expectations, showing that the majority of brands and stores missed their December targets

The episode closes by zooming out to a quarter and year-to-date view, reinforcing the structural shift toward online and the growing challenge of driving meaningful growth through physical stores during key trading periods.

Want full access to The Retail Score Index and the complete Christmas trading insights?
Visit www.theretailscore.com

In this episode, Wayne Rigney, Co-Founder of The Retail Score, dives straight into the Black Friday 2025 results, breaking down how this year's event performed across the Australian retail sector. Using anonymised data from more than 100 leading retailers, he unpacks category winners, discounting trends, shifts in consumer behaviour, and where the biggest growth, and surprises, showed up.

Wayne then zooms out to analyse the broader November 2025 trading results, revealing how the month tracked overall, which sectors outperformed, and the key dynamics shaping retail performance heading into peak season.

To finish, he shares predictions for the Christmas trading period, examining the indicators that matter most — from demand signals and promotional depth to stock availability and consumer sentiment.

Want full access to The Retail Score Index and the insights from this episode? Visit www.theretailscore.com to get involved.