The Baltic region is Europe's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoint. From the Suwałki Gap to the stationing of German combat troops in Lithuania, we explore the geopolitical stakes of a potential conflict between Russia and NATO.

Political scientist Marcel Dirsus speaks with Oliver Moody, Berlin correspondent for The Times, to analyze the strategic vulnerability of Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.

00:00 Russia’s Hybrid War Against Europe

00:31 Why the Baltic Region Is Europe’s Geopolitical Flashpoint

01:00 Baltic: NATO, Russia, and Europe’s Future

01:24 Baltic States History: From Empire to Independence

03:07 How Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania Broke from the USSR

04:40 Why the West Didn’t Support Baltic Independence in 1990

05:36 Why the Baltic States Chose NATO and the EU

06:11 NATO Expansion and Western Fears of Provoking Russia

07:22 Why Defending the Baltic States Is So Difficult

09:39 What Europe Can Learn from the Baltic States

10:03 Estonia’s Digital State and Economic Transformation

12:14 Why Copy-Paste Policy Fails in Europe

13:40 How Russia’s Ukraine War Changed Northern Europe

15:47 Baltic Power and Influence Inside the European Union

17:56 Poland, Power Politics, and Europe’s Strategic Limits

19:57 Why Russia Didn’t Stop Finland and Sweden Joining NATO

21:56 Is Europe Already in a Hybrid War with Russia?

22:17 Russian Sabotage, Espionage, and Hybrid Attacks Explained

23:26 Could Russia Invade Estonia? NATO’s Worst-Case Scenario

23:47 Why Subscribing Helps the Podcast

24:04 How a NATO–Russia War Could Begin

26:05 NATO Troops in the Baltics: Tripwire or Real Deterrence?

28:05 Finland’s Total Defense Model Explained

29:53 Why Europe Is Unprepared for Civil Defense

32:25 Germany’s Rearmament and Europe’s Historic Fears

34:39 What US Politics Mean for Europe’s Security

36:30 Could NATO Collapse Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

37:38 If America Leaves Europe: Unity or Fragmentation?

39:32 Why the Baltic Region Shapes Europe’s Future

41:08 Understanding Russia Through an Exiled Russian Writer

42:51 Outro

In this episode:

• The strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap

• Why Germany is deploying a combat brigade to Lithuania

• Hybrid Warfare & Grey Zone Tactics: How Russia destabilizes the region

• The reality of the Russian threat to the Baltic states

• NATO's defense strategy in Northeastern Europe

• Historical context: The Soviet occupation and its legacy

• What we can learn from Poland, Finland and Estonia

About the Guest:

Oliver Moody is the Berlin correspondent for The Times, covering German and Northern European politics. His reporting often focuses on security policy and the shifting geopolitical landscape in Europe.Subscribe for more serious conversations on geopolitics & history.

My guestBook: https://www.johnmurraypress.co.uk/titles/oliver-moody/baltic/9781399814270/Twitter: https://x.com/olivernmoodyMeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

How the U.S. turned banks, the dollar, and tech supply chains into a weapon that isolates entire countries without firing a shot.

Edward Fishman is the author of "Chokepoints" and a former member of the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff. We discuss how the US transformed the global financial system into a weapon, the history of economic statecraft from naval blockades to smart sanctions, and the invisible infrastructure of the US dollar. We also cover the origins of the Iran sanctions campaign, how secondary sanctions force allies to comply, and whether the overuse of these tools threatens the dollar's future dominance.

Lastly, we discuss US attempts to wage economic warfare against China and what America may do if Beijing decides to invade Taiwan.

00:00 Intro: Threatening shipping companies

01:23 From naval blockades to smart sanctions

03:35 How globalization created "Chokepoints"

06:20 The Invisible Infrastructure (How the Dollar actually works)

10:04 Weaponized Interdependence

13:26 The Iran Model: Stuart Levy & the Treasury's realization

18:26 Why European banks obey US law (Secondary Sanctions)

21:19 Deterrence vs. rollback: what sanctions achieved in Iran

24:27 The bipartisan “sanctions work” lesson—and overreach risks

24:43 The sanctions‑relief paradox after the JCPOA

25:06 Why firms refused to re‑enter Iran despite relief

25:11 Business risk calculus and U.S. policy volatility

25:14 Polarization and foreign‑policy credibility

28:39 Russia: why objectives changed after 2014 and 2022

29:15 2014—Crimea, Donbas, Minsk, and deterrence limits

35:06 The “catastrophic success” concern35:26 2022 playbook: big banks, central bank, chips; crisis and calibration

38:42 Did the 2022 economic crisis distract Russia’s leadership?

39:05 China export controls: ZTE → Huawei → semiconductors

41:52 Taiwan question: limits of economic deterrence

42:14 Build resilience first: rare earths, batteries, chips

44:05 Is globalization over?

44:08 The mindset shift ending globalization’s foundation

45:49 Outro

Guest: Edward Fishman, Columbia UniversitySubscribe for more serious conversations on Geopolitics & History.

My guest

Book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/726149/chokepoints-by-edward-fishman/

Website: https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/edward-fishman/

Twitter: https://x.com/edwardfishman

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

I'll see you soon.

We're now multiple years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and an end to the fighting isn't in sight. There are now negotiations, but where could these negotiations lead? What happens if Russia wins? And why did Putin decide to invade in the first place?

To answer these questions, I speak to Michael Kimmage. Michael is the director of the Kennan Institute in Washington, DC and a professor of history at the Catholic University of America. His latest book is called Collisions: The War in Ukraine and the Origins of the New Global Instability.

My guestWebsite: https://www.kennaninstitute.org/kimmageTwitter: https://x.com/mkimmage

MeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

I'll see you soon.

My guest this week is Kori Schake. Kori has an incredibly impressive CV. She is currently the Director of Foreign and Defense Policy at the American Enterprise Institute, but she has also worked at the US Department of State, the Pentagon and the White House. She advised John McCain during his 2008 presidential campaign and she has taught at Stanford and West Point.

Her latest book is called The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States. We talk about Trump, of course, but also George Washington, World War II, and the general difficulty of maintaining a powerful military that doesn't become a threat for democracy. I've admired Kori's work for many years, so I'm delighted that we had an opportunity to chat.

My guest

Website: https://www.aei.org/profile/kori-schake/

BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/kschake.bsky.social

Book: https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=the-state-and-the-soldier-a-history-of-civil-military-relations-in-the-united-states--9781509570539

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

I'll see you soon.

Earlier this year, I read a book called Death is Our Business and this week I spoke to the author John Lechner. John is an interesting man. He used to work in investment banking and then he decided to become a journalist. So he moved to Africa and started reporting on Russian mercenaries.

John got kidnapped at some point, but along the way he learned quite a few languages. He speaks fluent Russian, advanced Turkish, and conversational Chechen, as well as Sango, which is the most important language in the Central African Republic.

In this episode, we talk about the role of the Wagner Group in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin's march on Moscow, and the growing role of private military companies in international politics.

My guest

Website: https://www.johnlechnerauthor.com

Book: https://www.johnlechnerauthor.com/death-is-our-business

Twitter: https://x.com/JohnLechner1

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

I'll see you soon.

Hey, it's Marcel Dirsus and this is The Next Best.

I spoke to Charles Hecker this week. Charles has spent 40 years traveling and working in the Soviet Union and Russia. He speaks fluent Russian and he just wrote a book called Zero Sum.

At first glance, the book is about international business in Russia. And it is, but it is also a lens to look at political and economic developments more generally. We spoke about the chaos of the early 1990s. Western governments pushing their companies to invest in Russia and the impact that closer engagement with Moscow had on our own societies. I enjoyed the book. I enjoyed talking to Charles and I hope you enjoy our discussion.

Let's go.

My guest

Website: https://www.charleshecker.com

Book: https://www.charleshecker.com/purchase-links

Twitter: https://x.com/Charles_Hecker

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/charleshecker.bsky.social

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

I'll see you soon.

My guest this week is Steve Coll. Steve is a senior editor at The Economist and he has written nine books. He has won the Pulitzer Prize not once, but twice. His most recent book is about Saddam Hussein, the CIA and America's invasion of Iraq. It is called The Achilles Trap. 1

In this episode, we talk about Saddam Hussein's childhood, chemical weapons use against Iran, and a series of miscalculations that ultimately led to war. I had lot of fun talking to Steve, and the discussion is relevant beyond America and Iraq, because misunderstanding the opposite side can still lead to tragedy. Let's go.

My guest

Book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/602066/the-achilles-trap-by-steve-coll/

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

I'll see you soon.

Hey, it's Marcel Dirsus and this is The Next Best.