In an interview to discuss the impact of rising oil prices – which yesterday touched $126 per barrel – on both the world economy and India’s economy, economist and former Chief Statistician of India Pronab Sen said that rising oil prices could reduce India’s expected GDP growth by up to 2.5%. He agreed that this was a fairly substantial fall.

Sen said he was particularly worried about India’s exports to the Gulf region which have presently been blocked by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He said he was not confident that India could find alternate markets for what it sells to the Gulf countries and if it can’t this will have a direct impact on the concerned exporters leading, he agreed, to losses in jobs. This, he believes, will be a major component of the decline in GDP growth that he talked about.

Sir Keir Starmer the British Prime Minister’s real problem is that he has failed to transition from being a lawyer into a prime minister and senior politician and, as a result, lacks strategy and keeps going back on what he has said and done or acting inadvisably, such as with the appointment of Peter Mandelson as Ambassador to the United States. This is the verdict of former British Secretary of State for International Development and former Deputy Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell.

Sir Andrew says that Starmer is now a Prime Minister with serious question marks about his longevity and his capabilities, many of which are recognized by the Labour Party, but who may not be easily removable from office because there is no clear contender to take his place. This means that the prime ministership of Britain, the future of the Labour Party government and of the country itself is surrounded by uncertainty and doubt.

Abhishek Manu Singhvi, one of the foremost legal minds in the country, a Rajya Sabha MP and Congress spokesperson, has said that Vice President Radhakrishnan has “clearly, patently erred” in accepting the merger of seven Aam Aadmi Party Rajya Sabha MPs with the BJP.

Singhvi says that this decision by the Vice President can be challenged in Court and it’s quite possible that it will be overturned. Singhvi points out that in accepting the merger the Vice President has ignored what Singhvi calls “the preponderance of judgements” and instead allowed himself to be guided by “an awry judgement” in the Chodankar case.

The Editor-in-Chief of The Economist, Zanny Minton Beddoes, says the Iran war is a “strategic disaster” for President Donald Trump and the USA.

She said: “I think this is along the line of Suez for the Brits. A very big geo-strategic misstep where the US has, I think, unambiguously lost from this. And it’s in a weaker position in the Gulf and it’s in a weaker position internationally.”

Minton Beddoes said Trump should be thought of not as a conventional American President with a cabinet and advisors who speak their mind, debate and then come to agreed conclusions but as a King surrounded by courtiers who vie to tell him what he wants to hear.

Minton Beddoes believes that there is a good chance the war could resume because, at the moment, both sides believe they have the upper hand and they are waiting for the other to give in.

After the extension of the ceasefire we ask critical questions about the new situation in the Middle East. Is this an open ended and indefinite extension of the ceasefire? Who does it benefit more? Does Iran’s refusal to come to Islamabad indicate its feeling stronger? Or is the regime internally divided, as Trump has claimed? Now, whenever talks happen, how can the key differences be bridged? And is either side willing to make the compromises necessary? Those are the key issues Karan Thapar raises with the Co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, Trita Parsi.

As uncertainty about the talks that were supposed to happen between America and Iran continues, we ask can the Pakistan-brokered talks still happen? If they do how significant will that be? In these circumstances what can they deliver? What does the confusion of the last two days suggest about America and Iran? And where does the advantage lie? Those are the key issues Karan Thapar raises with the well-known and highly regarded Iran Project Director of the International Crisis Group, Ali Vaez.

In an interview to discuss the Prime Minister’s address to the nation on Saturday and his own video response later the same night, former Law and Human Resource Development Minister Kapil Sibal has said “Prime Minister knowing the facts of history deliberately made statements that are inconsistent with those facts … people know what I mean … I have stated what I have stated (which is) based on the facts of history.”

Speaking about the Chief Election Commissioner, Sibal said if the CEC had been truly independent and impartial “he should have issued him (the PM) a notice. (In fact), he would not have allowed the speech to go on. He should have made a statement. And he knew, he would have known, the Prime Minister was going to give a speech. He should have stopped it. He should have got the text of the speech. But he didn’t do (any of) it … that’s the problem in this country. If institutions, integrity, collapses, there’s nothing left.”

There is confusion, concern and lack of clarity about the basis on which the government proposes to increase the number of seats in the Lok Sabha and the state assemblies. Will it be on the basis of the 2011 census, which is what the bills themselves suggest, or will it be a 50% proportionate increase in the Lok Sabha and all the state assemblies, which is what unnamed spokespersons have assured yesterday’s newspapers? And does a 50% proportionate increase make the bills more acceptable to the opposition? Or do they still have serious reservations? Those are the issues Karan Thapar raises with the Minister for Information Technology and Digital Services of the Tamil Nadu government, P. Thiaga Rajan.