Paul Bennett takes on the breaking news of Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and the resulting escalation—laying out what this could mean for U.S. real estate. Paul draws on 40 years of investment experience to address what matters: heightened market volatility, possible shifts in oil and inflation, and the sector-by-sector fundamentals that investors need to understand as the global crisis unfolds. Political opinions are left aside; the focus stays on how international instability can shape cap rates, transaction volume, and refinancing across key property types.

Key Highlights

• How immediate news from the Middle East sent equities down and triggered a clear risk-off mood among investors.

• Direct connection between Middle East conflict, oil price spikes, and the potential for higher inflation—impacting transportation, utilities, and supply chains.

• Why higher or sustained interest rates could follow, delaying Fed rate cuts and complicating refinances and new deals.

• Sector details: office properties are the most exposed to downside risk; retail, industrial, and small-bay industrial may see mild impacts from slower sentiment and rising costs; multifamily and self storage remain comparatively resilient, with only modest headwinds expected for now.

• Uncertainty around foreign capital flows: gateway cities like New York, LA, Miami, and San Francisco could see delays or reductions, but some foreign capital may seek safety in the U.S. if uncertainty builds elsewhere.

• What to watch: duration and severity of the conflict, changes in oil futures, transaction slowdowns, and which players get drawn in—all will set the tone for real estate’s path in the coming weeks.

References

• Previous episode: Episode 15: Mid-Year Real Estate Sector Outlook
  
  
• U.S. equity market performance cited in real-time during recording

Keywords

self storage investing, commercial real estate, geopolitical risk, Israel Iran conflict, market volatility, inflation, oil prices, cap rates, interest rates, foreign capital, office sector, multifamily, industrial real estate, sector analysis, investment context

Welcome to our data-driven mid-year 2025 real estate investing review, cutting through speculation to focus on the facts behind each major real estate sector’s position in the current cycle.

COVID-induced shockwaves are still shaping fundamentals, with some asset classes finding their footing and others facing ongoing pressure. We outline where new opportunities are appearing, which sectors have stabilized, and where caution is still warranted—without gloss or hype.

Key Highlights

• Multifamily: Momentum is returning. Rent growth is positive and holding just below the long-term average (2.2% vs. 2.6%), vacancy has stabilized near 6.2%, and new construction is at a decade low. Negative leverage persists due to interest rates, but fundamentals are stronger than a year ago.
• Retail: Stability defines the sector. Grocery-anchored shopping centers remain in demand with low vacancy, supported by a 400% year-over-year jump in institutional investment. Lease volume is limited more by supply than demand.
• Industrial: General industrial is steadying after pandemic-driven oversupply, with vacancies in the 7–8% range. Small bay industrial remains extremely tight nationwide (3% vacancy), pushing demand for service, light manufacturing, and new consumer uses.
• Office: Market faces continued challenges. Vacancy is forecasted to peak at 19% in 2025 and could remain elevated into 2026 or beyond. Class A space in major markets is relatively stable, but Class B and C properties face sharp headwinds as large employers shed space and transactions remain slow.
• Hospitality: Occupancy remains slightly below pre-pandemic levels, but rate and revenue per room now exceed 2019 figures, restoring profitability even with supply-side pressures.
• Self Storage: The sector is stabilizing after a 28-month period of declining street rates. Rates have now leveled, new development is slowing (pipeline down to 2.8% of existing stock, projected to fall to 2% by 2027), and long-term fundamentals remain solid for developers and investors.

For more head to www.aaastorageinvestments.com/.

In this episode of the AAA Storage Podcast, Paul Bennett focuses on the essential lessons that come from nearly four decades of investing in real estate. Paul shares practical, candid insights about what shapes long-term success—discipline, planning, selecting the right sponsor, and the realities of market cycles. The discussion speaks directly to high-net-worth investors looking for reliable returns in self storage, offering grounded perspective instead of trends or empty promises.

Key Highlights
• The importance of disciplined capital allocation and the pitfalls of trying to time the market
• How liquidity and having cash reserves enable investors to weather downturns and hold assets through challenging periods
• The consequences of chasing tax advantages and overleveraging, illustrated through personal experience during the aftermath of the Tax Reform Act of 1986
• Why sponsor alignment—with meaningful capital at risk and a problem-solving approach—protects investors when markets shift
• Herd mentality in real estate: how following the crowd leads to trouble and why well-placed contrarian moves create opportunity
• The responsibility of passive investors to perform due diligence on market cycles, local demand, and the sponsor’s commitment and expertise

Resources
• Paul Shannon LinkedIn Post: Lessons Learned From a Challenging Year of Passive Investing
• Paul Shannon LinkedIn Post: CBRE data for investing in 2025