It is Friday, February 20th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

Today's episode focuses on identifying inefficiencies in the prediction markets as injury reports shake up the boards. We analyze the high-volume trading on Bub Carrington’s assists on Polymarket and explain why the Kalshi data suggests fading public sentiment on the Grizzlies vs. Jazz matchup. We also dive into two massive totals for the Mavericks/Timberwolves and Heat/Hawks games where the market pace adjustments are lagging behind reality.

Finally, we look at the 'Dog of the Day' in the Brooklyn vs. Oklahoma City matchup, highlighting a significant mispricing in the spread odds. Whether you are tracking movement on Polymarket or looking for value on Kalshi, this episode provides the alpha you need for today's games.

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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It is February 20, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market. In this episode of the Ledger Recap, we dive into the systemic mismatches between the CAVALIERS and NETS, exploring why alt spreads on Kalshi and Polymarket offered significant missed alpha.

We also review critical lessons in trade management for player prop odds, focusing on mid-game adjustments for Tyrese Maxey and the impact of small-ball lineups on Alperen Sengün’s rebound contracts. Learn how our updated 'Conviction Calibration' rule aims to refine our betting execution across prediction markets.

Feedback? Email us at: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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It is February 19th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

Today’s episode focuses on high-usage gaps and efficiency mismatches across the NBA. We leverage real-time data from Polymarket and Kalshi to identify value in the player prop markets, specifically looking at Tyrese Maxey's scoring floor in Philadelphia and Alperen Sengün’s rebounding potential against a depleted Hornets frontcourt.

Featured Betting Breakdowns:

• 76ERS vs HAWKS: Analyzing Tyrese Maxey's usage odds without Joel Embiid.
• ROCKETS vs HORNETS: Why Alperen Sengün is primed to dominate the glass.
• NETS vs CAVALIERS: Regression models for the double-digit spread.
• PISTONS vs KNICKS: Targeting Jalen Brunson’s volume at the Garden.
• CELTICS vs WARRIORS: Our 'Dog of the Day' analysis on the road favorite.

Tune in to see which way the sharp money is moving before the evening edition update. For feedback, email us at feedback@predictionmarketshq.com.

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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It is Wednesday, February 18, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market. Tonight we analyze road performance data and live market shifts on Kalshi and Polymarket for the Big Ten and Summit League. We recap our position on the North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State matchup and look for value in the live Penn State odds as they host Rutgers. Get the latest insights on how player returns and road shooting struggles are shifting the prediction markets. Contact us at feedback@predictionmarketshq.com. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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It is Wednesday, February 18, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

While the NBA is on break, the college basketball board is heating up. We explore the massive edge in mid-major markets, specifically targeting the Summit League matchup between North Dakota State and South Dakota State. We also break down the betting volume on Polymarket for Big East matchups and high-possession totals in the Patriot League. Whether you are looking for the best odds on Kalshi or tracking sharp money movement, this episode provides the data-driven insights you need to find mispriced probability.

• American vs. Bucknell: Total Points Analysis
• St. John’s vs. Marquette: Spread and Defensive Efficiency
• Illinois vs. USC: Evaluating Road Favorites
• Summit League Lock: North Dakota State vs. South Dakota State
• Dog of the Day: Missouri’s Value Play

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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It is February 11, 2025, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

On this Tuesday evening edition, we analyze a massive slate of college basketball action. We track live market movements on Polymarket and Kalshi, focusing on high-conviction plays where sharp money is shifting the odds due to late-breaking injury news.

• PURDUE vs. MICHIGAN: Holding firm on the Boilermakers as market conviction remains high at Mackey Arena.
• WISCONSIN vs. OHIO STATE: Capitalizing on the John Mobley Jr. injury with new money moving toward the Badgers' spread and moneyline.
• IOWA vs. NEBRASKA: Analyzing why the Hawkeyes are the play following depth issues for the Huskers.
• MIAMI vs. VIRGINIA TECH: Why we are staying the course with the Hurricanes' offensive efficiency.

We recap the full evening portfolio, including late-add moneyline positions to maximize value before tip-off. Our team uses data-driven insights from leading prediction markets to find the edge in tonight's betting lines.

For questions or feedback, contact us at: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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It is Tuesday, February 17, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

In this episode, we analyze a massive college basketball slate where the market efficiency is being tested. We start in West Lafayette to see if the top-ranked MICHIGAN Wolverines are walking into a trap against PURDUE, then head to the ACC to break down the mismatch between MIAMI and VIRGINIA TECH. Our experts also identify the Alpha in the WISCONSIN and OHIO STATE matchup before revealing our Dog of the Day regarding the total in the NEBRASKA and IOWA game.

We use real-time data from Polymarket and Kalshi to find where the sharp money is moving and where the probability is mispriced. From injury impacts to pace-of-play projections, we give you the tools to find the best odds on the board.

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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It is Monday, February 16th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.

In this Evening Edition, we re-verify our morning positions and look at live market movements for the night slate. We analyze the heavy volume hitting the Houston vs. Iowa State matchup and explain why the moneyline odds are shifting toward the Cougars. We also break down new additions to our portfolio, including Old Dominion and Colgate, using real-time data from Polymarket and Kalshi.

Whether you are tracking defensive efficiency or looking for the best price on a bounce-back game, this episode provides the data-driven bets needed to adjust your prediction market portfolio. We also recap our current holds on Duke and Wagner as the board locks for the evening.

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Read Transcript