Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Macro Waves, the BNP Paribas Economic Research podcast. Today, we're looking at household consumption, which remains the main driver of growth in both the Eurozone and the United States. As we all know, household consumption suffered a major negative shock during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, growth has remained very moderate in the Eurozone, while it has accelerated sharply in the United States. After the pandemic, the inflationary crisis and contrasting economic policies of recent years, where do we stand on either side of the Atlantic?

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In today’s discussion, we delve into the public finances of emerging economies in 2025, based on an exclusive analysis of our most recent EcoPerspectives issue focused on these economies. With robust but slowing growth, rising public debt and limited fiscal flexibility, what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for these countries?

That's what we're going to explore with Hélène Drouot, an expert on Latin America and Lucas Plé, who specialises in sub-Saharan Africa

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Since Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025, the United States has massively increased its tariffs. As a result, trade flows to the US have been disrupted, but has this affected the dynamics of global trade? And above all, are we heading towards a major restructuring of global trade?

Fins out more here: EcoPerspectives — Advanced Economies | 3rd Quarter 2025– Economic Research – BNP Paribas

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As we enter the second half of the year, and after a first half marked in particular on the economic front by the tariff war initiated by the United States, we suggest that we pause and look back for a moment. This will allow us to understand the dynamics that have shaped our economies over the last six months. It will also help us to identify to what extent and in what way they will impact the economic outlook for the second half of the year. What scenario should we expect?

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To highlight the publication of the second quarter issue of EcoPerspectives Emerging Economies, three members of the Emerging Economies team speak in ‘MacroWaves’: Christine Peltier, Cynthia Kalasopatan Antoine and Lucas Plé. This is an opportunity to take stock of the specific challenges facing countries.

In this podcast, our economists review the consequences of US tariff increases on global growth, the dynamics of international trade reconfiguration, and the reorganisation of value chains. We will analyse the effects of these upheavals on emerging countries.

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In this new Podcast, we take a look at the short- to medium-term economic outlook for the major advanced economies, analysing the impact of trade tensions, the room for manoeuvre available and the expected economic dynamics.

#growth #inflation #monetarypolicy #us #eurozone #uk

Reading advice :

• Équipe Économies Avancées | EcoPerspectives — Économies Avancées | 2ème trimestre 2025 – Etudes Economiques – BNP Paribas

Sound credit :

• Extact from the speech of Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF, during the IMF World Economic Outlook' press briefing, April 2025.

# Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, April 2025 - YouTube

• Extract from Jérome Powell's speech at the May 7, 2025 FOMC press conference.

# FOMC Press Conference May 7, 2025

• Extact from the speech by Christine Lagarde, Président of the ECB, at the announcement of the ECB's latest monetary policy decisions, April 17, 2025.

# President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 17 April 2025

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