• Existing-home sales jumped 5.1% in December to the strongest pace in nearly three years, signaling materially improved exit liquidity for flips and BRRRRs
• Inventory tightened sharply to just 3.3 months of supply, setting up tougher acquisition competition before spring listings arrive
• Mortgage applications surged 28.5% after a brief dip to 5.99%, confirming extreme rate sensitivity among buyers and refinance borrowers
• Refinance demand up 128% year-over-year; sub-6% rates triggered immediate borrower action despite the window closing quickly
• Foreclosure filings rose 14% in 2025, with Florida and Texas emerging as key distressed-inventory markets to watch
• Rising bank repossessions point to potential REO growth over the next 12 months, favoring cash buyers and fast-close investors
• Building material costs continue climbing, driven by metals, labor, and tariffs, pressuring flip and ground-up construction margins
• Builder incentives at post-COVID highs reflect affordability strain rather than falling construction costs
• Potential California single-stair reform could unlock new small multifamily projects, with early-adopter cities setting the template

• Political pressure escalating on the Fed as Chair Powell faces DOJ subpoenas, adding uncertainty to rate forecasting
• Administration directs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200B in MBS, compressing mortgage spreads and helping keep rates near 6%
• Mortgage rates materially lower than the 7%+ environment, but volatility argues for cautious rate-lock timing
• Housing permits down over 21% YoY, with multifamily starts especially weak, reinforcing long-term supply constraints
• Lenders formally allowed to underwrite based on citizenship status; non-citizen investors need lender alignment
• Anywhere–Compass merger creates the nation’s largest brokerage, potentially reshaping agent dynamics and deal flow
• Unemployment claims and consumer sentiment softening, early signals to monitor for downstream impacts on rents and demand

- Relatively lower rates entering 2026

- Fairly stable transaction volume

- Sticky inventory

- Builders starting less projects, Builders Confidence Index still in conctraction range. Large scale price cutting of existing home builder inventory.

- HUD increases eligibility checks for FHA appraisers. If you have an FHA buyer, make sure the appraisers aren't delayed by this.