Waiting for rates to drop is often a costly myth—this episode breaks down opportunity cost, why prices adjust fast, and how disciplined buyers use positive leverage, fixed debt, and value-add to win in high-rate markets.

Time Stamps: 0:00 - Introduction 0:40 - Thunder slump talk + quick NBA stats 2:56 - “I Call BS” game (market + risk misconceptions) 7:50 - Main topic begins: why waiting hurts (opportunity cost) 8:40 - Lower rates ≠ better deals (competition + compressed spreads) 9:36 - Positive leverage rule + avoid negative leverage 10:05 - Fixed-rate debt + refinance optionality 11:04 - Rates don’t create value—pricing adjusts; seller captures rate drops 12:21 - Buy now, win later: refi/sell when rates fall 13:09 - Deals price to today’s debt: seller concessions show up 13:39 - Seller financing, rate buydowns, preferred equity, longer DD 14:41 - Why concessions disappear when rates fall (competition/REITs) 15:22 - Downside protection: fixed rate + rent growth in inflationary periods 16:11 - High rates force discipline + cleaner underwriting 16:38 - The “millions” math: lost cash flow + lost rent growth time 17:08 - Pricing lags when rates rise; when rates stabilize, buyers get aggressive 18:00 - Where rates might go next + why “do nothing” may be best 19:06 - Audience question: what’s your rate outlook + buying strategy

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Criterion breaks down why small, multi-tenant neighborhood retail is outperforming other CRE asset classes today—driven by constrained supply, triple-net expense pass-throughs, and stronger rent-growth dynamics versus multifamily and office.

Time Stamps: 0:00 Retail “bias” + deal updates (Lakeshore Plaza, Champions Terrace, fundraising, distributions) 2:56 “Put a cap on it” pricing game: 3 retail centers + asks revealed 8:40 Market snapshot: S&P, inflation/prime, gold/silver, bitcoin 11:46 Main topic: why small strip retail outperforms right now 12:29 Performance comparison: strip retail vs apartments vs office 13:01 Structural supply constraints + retail clustering 14:27 Tenant demand shift + backfilling + avoiding junior boxes 16:18 Multifamily headwinds: overbuild + expense pressure 17:57 Triple-net advantage: expense pass-through + inflation protection 19:08 Real-time leasing leverage + bidding on vacant suites 20:18 Thesis recap: what Criterion targets and why 23:13 Closing: invite debate on best asset class + wrap-up

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Criterion breaks down key macro trends heading into 2026—why industrial is stabilizing, office is stuck in a new normal, and retail is quietly the tightest sector—then closes with a “Worst Deal of the Week” teardown of a low-yield McDonald’s ground lease.

Time Stamps: 0:00 Quick banter + game setup 0:24 Episode intro + why Criterion is doing quarterly investor meetups 1:26 Dallas investor meetup announced (March 26) 1:47 “I Call BS” game begins (money/markets/real estate facts) 3:53 Build vs buy stabilized assets discussion 4:59 Wealth concentration question + savings timing scenario 7:21 NBA vs billionaire odds question + game results 8:10 Macro trends heading into 2026 overview (stabilizing markets, rates) 9:06 Industrial outlook: vacancy stabilization, build-to-suit shift, data centers 11:26 Office outlook: vacancy ceiling, conversions, refinancing wall, flight to quality 13:31 Retail outlook: lowest vacancy, limited new supply, rent growth, lease strategy 15:28 New segment: “Worst deal we saw this week” 15:53 McDonald’s ground lease teardown (3.5 cap, no depreciation, weak growth) 18:15 Wrap-up + next episode teaser

Ready to invest with Criterion? 👇 🌐 Learn more: https://www.thecriterionfund.com 📩 Join our investor list: https://www.thecriterionfund.com/join-our-investor-list 🔗 Find us everywhere: https://linktr.ee/thecriterionfund