The Fed Two Hundred Stock Index — Inaugural Edition
Federal spending is not random. It follows rules, incentives, and long-term patterns that repeat year after year. But while government contracting is one of the largest and most structured parts of the United States economy, it is rarely examined through the lens of public markets.
In this inaugural episode of Federalytics, the team at GovClose introduces the Fed Two Hundred Stock Index, a new analytical framework designed to track how sustained federal contracting activity may — or may not — show up in publicly traded companies over time.
The Fed Two Hundred tracks two hundred and seven public companies with meaningful federal exposure, grouped into four tiers by market capitalization. Each week, the index examines historical federal contracting data from fiscal year two thousand twenty-two through fiscal year two thousand twenty-six, newly reported contract actions, daily stock prices, and index-level performance compared to the Standard and Poor’s Five Hundred.
This episode establishes the baseline.
Listeners are walked through how the index is constructed, what it measures, and—just as importantly—what it does not attempt to claim. This is not investment advice. It does not assert causation. Instead, it is a transparency tool built to observe patterns, test assumptions, and document what the data shows over time.
The episode then reviews the first week of results, covering January second through January ninth, two thousand twenty-six. During that period, the Fed Two Hundred Composite Index outperformed the Standard and Poor’s Five Hundred, with notable variation across tiers. Tier Two companies led weekly performance, while Tier Four companies led quarterly performance, reinforcing why segmentation matters.
The report also highlights weekly winners and losers across each tier, illustrating how performance diverges even among companies operating in similar federal markets. Two company spotlights—L Three Harris Technologies and C A C I International—demonstrate how stock performance and federal contracting activity can coexist without simple explanations.
Rather than drawing conclusions, this episode frames the questions that matter next. Do federal contracts influence stock performance with time delays? Do certain tiers behave differently as trends persist? Does consistency matter more than growth?
If patterns exist, they will be surfaced. If they do not, that outcome is equally valuable.
Federalytics is produced by the team at GovClose, a government contracting education and training organization founded by a former federal acquisitions officer who managed more than eighty-two billion dollars in government contracts. GovClose helps professionals learn how to sell to the United States government—whether by winning contracts for their own business, advising companies as consultants, or securing high-paying account executive roles in the public sector.
To learn more, visit govclose dot com.
This episode marks the beginning of an ongoing effort to bring clarity—not hype—to one of the most important and misunderstood markets in the economy.
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