The Fed Two Hundred Stock Index — Inaugural Edition

Federal spending is not random. It follows rules, incentives, and long-term patterns that repeat year after year. But while government contracting is one of the largest and most structured parts of the United States economy, it is rarely examined through the lens of public markets.

In this inaugural episode of Federalytics, the team at GovClose introduces the Fed Two Hundred Stock Index, a new analytical framework designed to track how sustained federal contracting activity may — or may not — show up in publicly traded companies over time.

The Fed Two Hundred tracks two hundred and seven public companies with meaningful federal exposure, grouped into four tiers by market capitalization. Each week, the index examines historical federal contracting data from fiscal year two thousand twenty-two through fiscal year two thousand twenty-six, newly reported contract actions, daily stock prices, and index-level performance compared to the Standard and Poor’s Five Hundred.

This episode establishes the baseline.

Listeners are walked through how the index is constructed, what it measures, and—just as importantly—what it does not attempt to claim. This is not investment advice. It does not assert causation. Instead, it is a transparency tool built to observe patterns, test assumptions, and document what the data shows over time.

The episode then reviews the first week of results, covering January second through January ninth, two thousand twenty-six. During that period, the Fed Two Hundred Composite Index outperformed the Standard and Poor’s Five Hundred, with notable variation across tiers. Tier Two companies led weekly performance, while Tier Four companies led quarterly performance, reinforcing why segmentation matters.

The report also highlights weekly winners and losers across each tier, illustrating how performance diverges even among companies operating in similar federal markets. Two company spotlights—L Three Harris Technologies and C A C I International—demonstrate how stock performance and federal contracting activity can coexist without simple explanations.

Rather than drawing conclusions, this episode frames the questions that matter next. Do federal contracts influence stock performance with time delays? Do certain tiers behave differently as trends persist? Does consistency matter more than growth?

If patterns exist, they will be surfaced. If they do not, that outcome is equally valuable.

Federalytics is produced by the team at GovClose, a government contracting education and training organization founded by a former federal acquisitions officer who managed more than eighty-two billion dollars in government contracts. GovClose helps professionals learn how to sell to the United States government—whether by winning contracts for their own business, advising companies as consultants, or securing high-paying account executive roles in the public sector.

To learn more, visit govclose dot com.

This episode marks the beginning of an ongoing effort to bring clarity—not hype—to one of the most important and misunderstood markets in the economy.

Learn how to sell to the U.S. government: https://www.govclose.comThe US government spends $700+ billion annually with small businesses, but less than 0.25% of small businesses ever win a contract - and it's because they're doing it wrong. In this video, I break down the exact subcontracting strategy that flips the script: instead of cold-emailing prime contractors begging for work, you bring them opportunities they can't ignore. As a former Air Force acquisitions officer who managed over $82 billion in contracts, I'll show you how to find early opportunities, identify the right primes, and position yourself as the subcontractor they need. Stop begging and start winning government contracts the right way.Want to join our exclusive community? See if the GovCon Certification Program is right for you. Schedule a Enrollment Consultation: https://www.govclose.com/enrollment-interviewConnect with Rick on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/govclose/

GovClose Certification Overview: https://www.govclose.com/govclose-certification-programThe "Jab Jab Right Hook" Strategy for Government Contracting SuccessStop chasing contracts with proposals. Start building relationships that WIN contracts. In this coaching call, I break down how relationship-based selling works in government contracting using Gary Vaynerchuk's "Jab, Jab, Right Hook" framework.Most contractors think they need to write better proposals. Wrong. The most successful government contractors I know rarely write competitive proposals—they win through relationships. Here's how to apply the Jab-Jab-Right Hook method to build genuine connections with contracting officers and decision-makers.**Who This Is For:**→ Government contractors tired of losing competitive bids→ Small businesses building their first relationships with agencies→ Consultants helping clients navigate federal sales→ Anyone pursuing DOD, DOE, DHS, or civilian agency contracts→ Companies with existing contracts looking to expand within an agency**CHAPTERS:**00:00 - Introduction: Why Relationships Beat Proposals00:45 - Always Take the Networking Call (Real Story)01:15 - Negotiating Between Big Companies & Egos02:00 - The Lawyer Problem: CYA vs. Making Deals Happen03:15 - Community Support & Learning from Each Other04:30 - Teaming Agreement Templates (Use & Reuse)04:45 - Product vs. Problem: Focus on THEIR Need07:00 - Market Intelligence Tools: Who Needs What14:30 - Using GovWin IQ to Track Pipeline & History18:15 - Subcontracting Strategy: Stay Focused or Diversify?21:00 - Timeline Expectations: 12 Months Is Normal22:00 - On-Site Networking: Fort Bragg Example22:30 - The Jab-Jab-Right Hook Method Explained23:00 - Every 3rd or 4th Time: When to Ask for Business23:15 - Why COs Want to Help Good Companies**Key Timestamps:**• 00:45 - How one networking call turned into a job offer• 02:30 - Why lawyers' CYA mentality kills deals• 05:15 - "Be passionate about your client's problem, not your product"• 06:00 - You're setting yourself up for failure if you don't match requirements• 22:30 - "Every single sale was never writing a proposal again"• 22:45 - "I would go there with engineers and fix it, wouldn't charge them"• 23:00 - "Every fourth or fifth time I'd ask for more business"• 23:15 - "I wanted to help companies that were honestly trying to do good work"**Related Videos You Should Watch:**• How to Use GovWin IQ for Pipeline Building• DOE National Labs Contracting Strategy• When to Give Up on an Agency (And Move On)• Teaming Agreements: How to Negotiate Between Big PlayersNeed a consultant? Connect with Jonathan Haines from this video. https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbhaynes/**Disclaimer:** This content is for educational purposes. While I draw on my experience as a former USAF acquisitions officer, all advice should be adapted to your specific situation and reviewed with your legal/compliance team as appropriate.**Connect with me:**🌐 Website: https://www.govclose.comConnect with Rick on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/govclose/© 2024 GovClose. All rights reserved.