• The transition to Paramount Plus has made UFC more accessible.
• Viewers are willing to overlook some technical glitches for lower costs.
• The UFC is actively promoting finishes in fights.
• Strickland's fighting style may lead to a decision rather than a finish.
• There is value in betting on both Ege and Medich in their respective fights.
• Strickland's experience may give him an edge in the fight against Hernandez.
• Ronda Rousey's return is seen as a money grab rather than a serious comeback.
• The undercard features intriguing matchups that could surprise viewers.
• The importance of matchmaking in the UFC is highlighted by recent trends.
• Historical figures like Joe Frazier are essential to understanding the sport's legacy.

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First Strike is back with a full betting breakdown of UFC Vegas 113, live from the Meta Apex in Las Vegas.

Hosts Dave Ross and Rob Moreno are joined by Kyle Anthony (@KyleAnthonyUFC) to dive into bets, model predictions, and market reads for a card headlined by Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira.

📊 Model-driven fight projections

💰 Betting angles and value spots

🧠 How the numbers shape this week’s card

🔍 What bettors should (and shouldn’t) be targeting at the Apex

🎧 Subscribe to First Strike for weekly UFC betting previews and sharp analysis.

🎙️ Available wherever you get your podcasts.

🐦 Follow the hosts on X:

Dave Ross: @drosssports

Rob Moreno: @TheRobbeo

🌐 For more UFC and sports betting coverage, visit VSiN.com

00:00 — Cold Open / Hook

00:12 — Show Open Animation

00:20 — Introduction & Early Predictions

01:24 — Analyzing the Paramount Plus Experience

02:56 — Fight Card Breakdown: Bautista vs. Oliveira

06:32 — Nurmagomedov vs. Basharat: Tactical Breakdown

10:15 — Horiguchi vs. Albazi: Clash of Styles

13:26 — Final Thoughts & Upcoming Fights

13:39 — UFC Betting Outlook & Upcoming Events

14:29 — Paramount Plus Experience & Early Season Insights

16:54 — Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira Analysis

22:05 — Cong Wang Comeback & Fight Breakdown

27:03 — Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat

31:26 — Sean Strickland vs. Fluffy Hernandez Preview

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The UFC calendar rolls on with another massive title fight — and First Strike is back to break it all down.

Dave Ross and Rob Moreno are joined by Reed Kuhn (@Fightnomics) to preview UFC 325, headlined by Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes. The crew digs into the numbers, betting markets, and stylistic matchups that matter most as the title picture continues to evolve.

On this episode:

📊 Analytical breakdowns with Reed Kuhn

💰 Betting angles, market movement & value spots

🎧 Subscribe to First Strike for weekly UFC betting previews and expert insight.

🎙️ Available wherever you get your podcasts.

00:00 — Dave Ross welcomes Reed Kuhn back to First Strike

00:39 — Reed Kuhn on Fightnomics fundamentals & evolving UFC models

02:06 — Where to find the Fightnomics book in 2026

03:36 — The Paramount+ era: does it change UFC analytics?

05:06 — UFC 325 Main Event: Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2

07:22 — Finish potential, totals movement & betting angles (Volk vs Lopes)

08:17 — Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint Denis breakdown

10:42 — Totals talk & live-bet considerations (BSD fight)

11:37 — Mauricio Ruffy vs Rafael Fiziev model breakdown

13:31 — Decision prop talk & stylistic matchup notes
14:28 — Transition: Rob Moreno joins next

15:08 — Rob Moreno joins: how El Modelo was inspired by Fightnomics

15:29 — Why MMA modeling “clicked” compared to team sports

16:55 — VSiN Pro subscriber promo + upcoming betting calendar

17:46 — Super Bowl betting guide plug

18:05 — Ruffy vs Fiziev: over 2.5, toughness & finishing paths

21:19 — Benoit Saint Denis vs Dan Hooker: age, recency & model lean

24:42 — Round prop (1.5) discussion & BSD finish angle

26:15 — Alternate unders & BSD by finish

26:41 — Junior Tafa vs Billy Elekana: model fade & parlay angle

28:58 — Under 7.5 correlation & finish math

29:40 — Main Event breakdown: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2

30:25 — Why Rob is backing this fighter at the current price

33:38 — Totals repopulated (4.5): correlated betting angles

35:03 — If Lopes wins: wrestling adjustments & path to victory

35:34 — Final thoughts, subscribe reminder & sign-off

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