Wes Gray joins us to explain how factor investors should think about high market valuations, S&P 500 concentration, value investing, small caps, artificial intelligence and the behavioral challenge of staying invested for the long term. He also breaks down Section 351 ETF exchanges, including how appreciated portfolios can move into an ETF without an immediate taxable sale, why direct-indexing portfolios are a major use case and how the ETF wrapper is reshaping asset management.

Wes Gray on X
https://x.com/alphaarchitect

Alpha Architect
https://alphaarchitect.com

ETF Architect
https://etfarchitect.com

Long-Only Value Investing: Does Size Matter?
https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdf

Even God Would Get Fired as an Active Investor
https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Even_God_Would_Get_Fired_as_an_Active_Investor.pdf

Topics covered

• Why high valuations may lower long-term expected returns without providing a reliable market-timing signal

• How S&P 500 concentration creates a major large-cap, quality and growth factor bet

• Why earnings and operating income may be better value metrics than book-to-market in an intangible economy

• Why valuation may matter more than company size for long-only value investors

• How unprofitable companies and low-quality stocks can distort small-cap value indexes

• Whether AI has changed the historical relationship between growth and value investing

• How AI may eliminate short-term trading edges while leaving long-horizon opportunities intact

• Why even an investor with perfect foresight could suffer severe drawdowns and get fired

• How passive investing flows may affect market prices and factor returns

• How Section 351 exchanges can solve problems created by appreciated SMAs, tax-loss harvesting and direct indexing

• The 25/50 diversification rules, cost-basis transfer and tax-deferral mechanics of ETF conversions

• Why assets continue moving from mutual funds, hedge funds and separate accounts into ETFs

• Why enduring underperformance may be necessary to earn higher long-term returns

Timestamps

00:00 Alpha Architect, ETF Architect and building an ETF platform
04:00 Can factor investors time a market bubble?
08:03 Intangible assets and the problems with book-to-market
13:42 The quality problem inside small-cap value indexes
18:18 Has technology changed the growth-versus-value equation?
23:25 Can AI create lasting investment alpha?
27:42 Are investors behaving better today?
34:39 How Section 351 ETF exchanges work
39:48 The diversification rules for tax-deferred ETF conversions
44:34 How cost basis and deferred taxes carry into the ETF
49:07 Mutual fund, hedge fund and SMA conversions
54:13 Why investors should embrace underperformance

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, joins Jack Forehand to explain what systematic macro data says about economic growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, oil prices, AI investment and the outlook for stocks and bonds. They examine why nominal GDP remains stable, why traditional recession indicators have failed, how consumer dissaving is boosting corporate profits, and why today's unusually balanced regime probabilities make this a difficult time for large macro bets.

Aahan Menon on X
https://x.com/AahanPrometheus

Prometheus Research
https://www.prometheus-macro.com

Topics covered

• Why geopolitical volatility and disrupted market trends make concentrated macro bets unusually difficult

• What Prometheus Research's daily GDP nowcast says about stable nominal growth

• Why AI capital spending matters but consumer spending still drives the US economy

• How household dissaving and the wealth effect are supporting corporate profits

• Why the economy and Federal Reserve policy may be increasingly sensitive to stock prices

• How oil prices are driving inflation volatility and changing expectations for interest rates

• Why demand-driven inflation is more persistent than supply-driven inflation

• How technology investment has weakened traditional recession and business-cycle indicators

• The value and limitations of timing Federal Reserve policy with systematic macro data

• What macro regime probabilities, valuations and expected returns suggest for stocks, bonds and diversification

Timestamps

00:02 Why this is a difficult time for big macro bets
05:02 A daily GDP nowcast shows stable nominal growth
09:21 Consumer dissaving and the future economic risk
13:23 The wealth effect linking stocks, spending and profits
17:52 Oil prices and extreme inflation volatility
22:23 Separating persistent demand inflation from supply shocks
27:27 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working
32:55 How technology is changing the business cycle
37:42 Why timing Federal Reserve cycles matters for bond returns
42:28 The limitations of alternative data and short histories
47:33 Macro regime forecasts and expected returns
51:54 Why the macro backdrop still supports equities
56:19 Why investors can finally get paid to diversify

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Azeem Azhar joins Kai Wu to break down the real economics of the AI boom, including the $110 billion demand base, where profits may accrue across chips, hosting, foundation models and applications, and whether spending can translate into enterprise productivity. They discuss AI infrastructure bottlenecks, open-source competition, vertical integration, organizational redesign, software moats, human judgment and the signals investors can use to identify companies turning AI adoption into durable competitive advantage.

The State of the AI Economy
https://intelligence.exponentialview.co/assets/ev-state-of-ai-economy-2026.pdf

Why AI Isn't Showing Up on Your Bottom Line
https://www.exponentialview.co/p/why-ai-isnt-showing-up-on-your-bottom-line

Azeem Azhar on X
https://x.com/azeem

Exponential View
https://www.exponentialview.co/

Topics Covered

• The size and growth rate of real generative AI demand

• How the AI stack divides between chips, hosting, foundation models and applications

• Why memory and energized data centers may be the key AI infrastructure bottlenecks

• Open-source models, proprietary pricing and enterprise assurance

• Vertical integration and foundation model labs moving into applications

• How AI value could flow to consumers rather than infrastructure providers

• Why AI productivity requires workflow and organizational redesign

• What investors can learn from earnings calls, hiring and enterprise spending

• Forward-deployed engineers, consulting firms and vendor lock-in

• Which intangible business moats strengthen or weaken as intelligence becomes abundant

Timestamps

00:00 The economics and sustainability of the AI boom
06:34 Mapping the four layers of the AI stack
10:43 Vertical integration and cross-stack competition
15:31 Why memory is becoming an AI infrastructure bottleneck
20:01 Open-source models versus proprietary AI
24:36 Why foundation model labs are moving up and down the stack
28:51 Could AI profits become consumer surplus?
33:00 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company
37:17 Job postings and the intangible investments behind AI adoption
44:16 Can forward-deployed engineers transform legacy companies?
49:15 Which business moats strengthen or weaken in the AI economy?
54:20 Do foundation models really have network effects?
59:00 Why judgment, verification and human provenance become more valuable
01:04:56 The exponential gap in data centers and education
01:10:06 How Azeem uses AI to deepen research and generate ideas

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

On the Latest First Principles, Andy Constan explains what the options market is signaling about the AI and semiconductor boom, why he believes earnings expectations have outrun the size of the economy, and where the next risks may emerge. We discuss speculative call buying, single-stock volatility, AI capital spending, consumer dissaving, the Fed put, Kevin Warsh's monetary policy framework, and the looming reset of US tariffs.Topics covered:

* Why parabolic moves in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks may reflect a speculative bubble

* What rising single-stock volatility and unusually low market correlations reveal beneath a calm index

* Why out-of-the-money calls became more expensive than puts and what that says about investor positioning

* How investors can hedge concentrated stock gains by selling calls and buying protective puts

* Why the AI bubble may be hiding in earnings expectations rather than traditional valuation multiples

* Andy's economic pie framework and why projected corporate profits may exceed the GDP available to support them

* How AI competition, open-source models, job displacement and subsidized token usage affect the return on AI investment

* Why capital spending and consumer dissaving are supporting economic growth, and where those drivers could weaken

* Whether the Federal Reserve could eventually buy equity ETFs and the inflationary consequences of a permanent Fed put

* How lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could rebalance Main Street and Wall Street

* Why expiring Section 122 tariffs could create a near-term shift in inflation, growth and the federal deficit

Timestamps:

00:02 Why the options market is flashing a warning on AI stocks

04:02 Extreme stock dispersion beneath a calm market

08:49 The signals of a speculative call-buying frenzy

13:00 How to hedge a stock position without calling the top

18:36 Why earnings expectations may be the real AI bubble

23:00 The economic pie cannot support every company's forecasts

27:00 AI job displacement and the widening gap between winners and losers

31:59 How capital spending and consumer dissaving are sustaining growth

36:00 When the return on AI investment starts to matter

40:26 Could the Fed buy stocks in the next financial crisis?

44:53 How Kevin Warsh might respond when markets and employment collapse

48:58 Lower rates, a smaller balance sheet and wealth inequality

52:59 The tariff deadline investors may be overlooking

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:

https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the Market Wizards series.

He explains how traders turned small accounts into fortunes, survived devastating losses, built exceptional risk-adjusted records and adapted from day trading to longer-term strategies, while revealing the psychology, risk management and commitment behind elite trading performance.

Jack Schwager on X
https://x.com/jackschwager

Market Wizards: The Next Generation
https://amzn.to/4psEOmH

Topics covered

• How video games, prop trading firms and modern technology shaped a new generation of traders

• How Jack Schwager finds candidates and verifies extraordinary trading track records

• Why return-to-risk measures can reveal more than the Sharpe ratio

• Lukas Froelich's astonishing 2020 performance and the limits of compounding and scalability

• Simon Rousseau's journey from a $40,000 borrowed account to nearly $500 million

• How breaking risk rules led to massive losses even after extraordinary success

• Kristjan Kullamägi's path from security guard to more than $100 million after repeated account blowups

• Phil Goedeker's success with short selling, option selling and unusually strong risk control

• Rick Bandazian Jr.'s merger arbitrage edge and more than a decade without a losing month

• Why financial markets may remain uniquely difficult for artificial intelligence to solve

• Lance Breitstein's apprenticeship, deliberate practice and shift from day trading to longer-term positions

• What traders and long-term investors can learn about talent, discipline, persistence and human nature

Timestamps

00:00 Intro to Market Wizards: The Next Generation
04:33 How Jack finds exceptional traders and how the trading ecosystem changed
09:15 Auditing Lukas Froelich's extraordinary 2020 returns
14:03 Simon Rousseau: turning $40,000 into nearly $500 million
18:42 The $50 million Carvana loss and the danger of breaking trading rules
22:54 Kristjan Kullamägi: from security guard to more than $100 million
28:36 Phil Goedeker and the risk of negative asymmetry strategies
32:41 Hedging option risk during the Liberation Day market selloff
37:34 Trading personality and Rick Bandazian Jr.'s no-loss record
41:36 Can artificial intelligence ever become a Market Wizard?
45:42 Lance Breitstein: choosing mentorship over a higher salary
49:42 What long-term investors can learn from elite traders
53:52 Innate talent, human nature and all-consuming commitment
57:58 What the next generation of trading may look like

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful.

Eric Pachman on X
https://x.com/EricPachman

Data 4 The People
https://www.data4thepeople.com/

Main topics covered

• Why the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market stories

• Why unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age Americans

• The decline in participation among older workers and men

• How healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growth

• Why Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending risk

• What occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare pay

• The differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleading

• How crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy prices

• Why falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retail

• What the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holders

• How Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research tools

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis
11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy
18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth
24:18 Why inflation is moving higher
30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil
36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem
44:05 Why diesel is the inflation risk that matters most
48:34 The single-income stress test and consumer fragility
54:42 Data 4 The People's nonprofit mission
59:00 Building an AI research assistant for public data
01:03:37 Where to follow Eric and Data 4 The People

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% to 20% stock market correction. We discuss labor market weakness, the growing divide between technology and the broader economy, fading tech leadership, market complacency, bond yields and the demographic forces that could keep US growth and inflation lower for years.

Jim also explains why he does not expect a recession or the end of the long-term bull market, but believes investors may need to reduce their concentration in AI and technology stocks as leadership quietly shifts toward the broader market.

Jim Paulsen on X
https://x.com/jimwpaulsen

Paulsen Perspectives
https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/

Main topics covered

• Why Jim expects a 10% to 20% market correction without a recession
• What zero job creation, declining full-time employment and rising unemployment reveal about the labor market
• Why housing starts, real disposable income and GDP forecasts point to weaker economic growth
• How higher Treasury yields, oil prices, a stronger dollar and slower money growth have tightened financial conditions
• Why the economic damage from an oil shock often appears after oil prices peak
• The widening earnings and economic divide between AI investment and the rest of the economy
• What investor positioning, shrinking liquidity and low defensive exposure reveal about market complacency
• Why strong earnings momentum does not eliminate the risk of a market decline
• Evidence that technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven are losing market leadership
• Why old economy sectors may outperform technology during the next stage of the bull market
• How weak labor force growth could push economic growth, inflation and Treasury yields lower
• Why demographics, immigration and productivity will shape the long-term US economic outlook

Timestamps

00:00 Why Jim Paulsen expects a 10% to 20% market correction
04:32 The labor market weakness investors may be overlooking
08:42 Housing, disposable income and GDP growth are deteriorating
13:03 How tighter financial conditions could slow the economy
17:09 Why oil shocks and the yield curve threaten earnings growth
21:41 Investor complacency and the disconnect between markets and Main Street
25:54 How today’s AI boom differs from the dot-com bubble
30:20 Defensive stocks reach an extreme last seen near major market tops
34:36 Record earnings expectations, momentum and extreme valuations
39:00 Technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven lose momentum
43:00 The hidden market rotation from new era to old era stocks
47:01 Why Jim expects Treasury yields to fall below 3%
51:43 The demographic forces suppressing growth and inflation
55:45 America’s long-term growth challenge and what could change it

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Excess Returns to break down the current technical setup for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, mega-cap tech, market breadth, sector rotation, international stocks and gold. We discuss why short-term momentum has weakened, what would confirm a more serious breakdown, how investors can use technical analysis for risk management, and where breakouts are appearing outside the AI and semiconductor trade.

Katie Stockton on X
https://x.com/StocktonKatie

Fairlead Strategies
https://www.fairleadstrategies.com/

Fairlead Funds
https://www.fairleadfunds.com/

Main topics covered

• Why the S&P 500 is still in a long-term uptrend but showing short-term momentum loss

• How Katie defines overbought and oversold using the stochastic oscillator

• Why the March monthly MACD sell signal became an unusual whipsaw

• What the QQQs and Nasdaq 100 are saying about technology leadership

• How investors can use stop losses, hedges and moving averages to manage risk

• Why the market has held up despite underperformance in the Magnificent Seven

• The difference between market breadth and market leadership

• Why sector rotation is improving in healthcare, industrials, utilities, insurers and biotech

• How sentiment indicators like the VIX and Fear and Greed Index fit into market timing

• How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF uses trend following, sector rotation, Treasuries and gold

• What the charts are saying about emerging markets, developed international stocks and the U.S.

• Why gold has moved from a strong bull market into a more tactical trading environment

Timestamps

00:00 Intro
00:58 Why the S&P 500 is losing short-term momentum
05:04 How overbought conditions can reset without a major decline
08:39 Why whipsaws make confirmation so important
12:02 What the QQQs are saying about technology leadership
16:51 How to manage risk with stop losses and hedges
20:07 Why the market held up despite Mag Seven weakness
23:49 How market breadth differs from market leadership
28:14 What sentiment indicators are saying about investor positioning
32:58 Why the market is in a technical void
36:00 Sector rotation beyond technology and semiconductors
40:54 How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF manages drawdowns
46:05 What international stock charts are saying versus the U.S.
50:13 Why markets have been resilient despite geopolitical risk
52:05 What the chart of gold is telling investors now