Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast’s 2025/26 harvest increased 30% to 2.06 million tonnes, but heavy rains are disrupting infrastructure and new crop deliveries. Longer-term concerns include declining rainfall and rising temperatures, which threaten future production. With Europe absorbing around 70% of Ivorian exports, these disruptions pose significant supply-chain risks.
• Ghana’s current output has strengthened to 750,000 tonnes, but 2026/27 production is projected to fall 13% due to disease, aging trees and climate risks. Financial difficulties at CocoaBod are delaying bean purchases, while price differences with Ivory Coast increase smuggling risks. Nigeria also faces an expected 11% production decline, alongside compliance challenges linked to the EU deforestation regulation.
• Elsewhere, drought threatens Indonesia’s harvest by reducing pod size and bean weight, while excessive rainfall in Ecuador raises the risk of frosty pod rot. Togo is contending with falling exports and unsold stocks, although demand from regional grinders, particularly in Malaysia, remains firm.
• Third-quarter grindings showed diverging demand trends, with record highs in Asia, modest growth in Europe and declines in North America. Multi-year-high exchange inventories are weighing on prices, while climate risks and financial pressures are challenging processors and consumers. The market remains caught between near-term inventory pressure and growing uncertainty over future supply.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Cote d'Ivoire: The 2025/26 season delivered a record 2.06 million tons, up 30% year on year, with port arrivals reaching 2.14 million tons by mid-September (18% to 19% growth) and the farm gate price steady at 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram. The 2026/27 outlook is concerning. Early field surveys point to deficient cherelle formation and poor pod development, with output projected to fall to about 1.8 million tons. Early September deliveries stood at just 26,000 tons, down 45.8% year on year, and the main crop may be delayed by 8 to 10 weeks. Key risks include inadequate rainfall causing premature pod drop, quality problems from insufficient sun-drying under cloudy skies, and rising black pod disease. The recent shift to an earlier marketing year start adds pressure on delivery schedules.
• Ghana: Harvests rose 25.6% in 2025/26, but COCOBOD's 2026/27 projections range from 450,000 to 650,000 tons, a potential reduction of up to 38%. The forecast reflects swollen shoot disease, aging plantations, and expected El Nino impacts. Financial strain is mounting, as licensed buying companies are owed substantial sums. A lower effective farm gate price raises smuggling risk and threatens crop mobilization, while the proposed 6% farm gate increase could prompt farmers to withhold sales.
• Nigeria: Export growth has been strong, but 2026/27 production is expected to fall by 11%. Compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation is a critical challenge that could affect half of national output.
• Ecuador: The country's ambition to become the second-largest producer depends on the disease-prone CCN51 clone. Record rainfall in several regions raises the risk of frosty pod rot, waterlogging, and harvest delays from rapid disease spread.
• Togo: Production has risen, but exports have fallen 62.9%. The decline stems from liquidity constraints among buyers rather than production issues.
• Indonesia: Record rainfall in Aceh is increasing black pod risk. Dry conditions in Sulawesi raise concerns about cherelle formation and pod development.

Global Cocoa Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• Ivory Coast: Cocoa harvest surged to 2,060,000 tons for the June 2025 to June 2026 period, a 30% increase from the previous year's 1,580,000 tons. Port arrivals confirm the abundant supply, with cumulative marketing year shipments up 18 to 19.9% year on year. However, early indicators for 2026/27 point to a weaker outlook, with below average chorel formation and poor pod development driving a main crop estimate of 1,800,000 tons (an 18% decrease). Record rainfall in regions such as Lax and Sassandra Mirahoue has heightened risks of flooding and pod rot.
• Ghana: Current season output reached 750,000 tons for 2025/26, a 25.6% increase from the prior year. The 2026/27 forecast appears bleak, with estimates as low as 450,000 to 550,000 tons, a potential decline of up to 38%, driven by swollen shoot disease and aging farms. Financial struggles compound these challenges, with CocoaBod's debt exceeding 60 billion Ghanaian cedis, limiting its ability to settle arrears with licensed buying companies.
• Nigeria: July bean exports rose 18% year on year, but the 2026/27 outlook anticipates an 11% production decline, primarily due to compliance issues with European Union deforestation regulations affecting a significant share of national output.
• Togo: Facing liquidity issues, with 2025/26 exports collapsing by 62.9%, leaving a considerable volume of cocoa unsold. The shortfall stems from price volatility and stalled transactions rather than crop failure, reflecting broader liquidity challenges across West Africa.
• Ecuador: Emerging as a fast rising origin on track to become the second largest producer, though facing significant weather risk from heavy wet season rainfall, identified as a leading threat to production. El Nino patterns could bring increased rainfall to Ecuador while potentially reducing it in West Africa.
• Indonesia: The 2026/27 main crop is under threat from severe drought in Sulawesi, with rainfall levels well below average likely to affect flower and pod development.
• Brazil: Noted alongside Ecuador as contributing to diversification of global cocoa supply, though specific production figures remain unavailable.
• Global market: Surplus forecasts for 2026/27 are being significantly reduced, with StoneX cutting its estimate to 25,000 tons from 149,000 tons in April. Tropical Research Services (Transgraph) and Guangchong have also adjusted projections, pointing to a tighter market than previously anticipated.

Global Cocoa Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Ivory Coast: Record output for the 2025/26 season reached 2,060,000 tons, a 30% increase from the previous year's 1,580,000 tons. Port arrivals for the October 2025 to August 2026 marketing year rose to 2,140,000 tons, up 19% year on year. However, the outlook for next season's main crop points to a potential drop to 1,800,000 tons (an 18% decline), with weather conditions raising blackpod disease risk in some regions while others face drier conditions. Financial backing from institutions such as FMO aims to support processing capacity, though structural challenges persist.
• Ghana: Current season output stands at 750,000 tons, a notable 25.6% increase, but future estimates predict a significant drop to as low as 450,000 to 550,000 tons. The sector faces severe financial distress tied to CocoaBod's debt burden and farmer disincentives from falling farm gate prices. A new law aimed at protecting cocoa farms offers some hope, though implementation under current financial constraints remains challenging.
• Nigeria: Robust bean exports this season mask a weaker outlook for 2026/27, with an 11% production decline forecast. Compliance with European Union regulations continues to constrain output.
• Ecuador: The country is aiming to climb to become the world's second largest cocoa producer, though high weather related risks continue to affect harvest conditions.
• Brazil: Emerging as an additional supplier, though no specific current production figures are available.
• Indonesia: Near record dry conditions are affecting key cocoa producing regions, threatening crop development and overall output for the upcoming season.
• Global market: Prices have seen a swift downturn on ICE amid increased certified inventories. Grinding data suggest demand is shifting rather than diminishing, with differing trends across regions. Surplus and deficit forecasts for 2026/27 point to narrower margins, with some projections indicating outright deficits. A potential strong El Nino adds further uncertainty, posing risks to West African growing conditions. Technical analysis shows key support levels holding, with the broader upward price trend remaining intact above major moving averages.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast recorded cocoa shipments of approximately 2.11 million metric tons in the current marketing year, up 20% year on year. However, early estimates for the 2026/27 season point to production of around 1.8 million tons, reflecting an expected decline from current levels as warmer and drier conditions threaten yields.
• Ghana also reported strong production growth, with output rising 25.6% to 750,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 season. The outlook for 2026/27 is considerably weaker, with production potentially falling to between 450,000 and 550,000 tons. Aging plantations, swollen shoot disease, and the risk of unfavorable weather are key concerns, while illegal mining continues to put agricultural land under pressure.
• Nigeria's cocoa exports increased 30% year on year in June to 80,922 tons, indicating strong near-term supply. However, production is forecast to decline 11% to around 305,000 tons in the 2026/27 season as weather conditions become less favorable for cocoa cultivation.
• The broader West African cocoa sector faces significant exposure to the potential El Nino pattern, which could bring higher temperatures and altered rainfall patterns across the region. With the event potentially among the strongest in decades, its impact on flowering, crop development, and yields could be substantial.
• Lower production expectations have already led major market analysts to reduce their estimates for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus. The revisions point toward a tighter supply balance, increasing the potential for changes in cocoa availability and pricing as the new season develops.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• In Ivory Coast, farmer cocoa shipments have risen 21 percent to 2.09 million tons, reflecting a strong current season. However, the outlook for the 2026/27 crop is considerably weaker, with production projected to decline 18 percent to 1.8 million tons. Heavy rainfall has increased the risk of brown rot and black pod disease, while the potential development of a strong El Nino could bring drier conditions later in the season, placing additional stress on yields. A sharp reduction in mid-crop farmgate prices is also expected to weigh on farmer incomes and production incentives.
• Ghana faces many of the same challenges. Excessive rainfall is disrupting farm operations and port access while increasing disease pressure across cocoa-growing regions. At the same time, lower official farmgate prices are adding financial strain for producers, creating further uncertainty around production and harvest performance.
• Nigeria is also expected to record lower cocoa production, with output forecast to decline because of aging plantations and increasing climate-related risks. Efforts to strengthen the sector include the distribution of one million hybrid cocoa seedlings to improve productivity and disease resistance, although structural issues such as limited market access continue to constrain long-term growth.
• Overall, the episode highlights how weather volatility, disease outbreaks, lower farmer returns, and persistent structural challenges across West Africa are creating significant risks for global cocoa production and supply in the coming seasons.