Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast, where persistent heavy rains have restricted access to cocoa farms and increased the spread of diseases such as brown rot and black pod. The potential return of El Nino is expected to further reduce flowering, pod quality, and yields during the 2026/27 main crop. Preliminary forecasts suggest production could fall to around 1.8 million tonnes, representing a significant decline from previous seasons. The discussion also highlights that the 2025/26 season recorded a 10.8 percent year on year production decline, while a sharp reduction in mid crop farmgate prices has increased financial pressure on producers and raised concerns about future investment in farm maintenance.
• The outlook for Ghana remains similarly challenging. Lower producer prices, adverse weather, and ongoing financial pressures are expected to weigh on cocoa production and farm management practices. The episode also examines the role of the Ghana Cocoa Board, noting that reduced official producer prices are affecting farmer earnings despite earlier hedging efforts.
• Nigeria is also expected to see lower cocoa output, with production projected to decline because of ageing plantations and climate related challenges. While initiatives such as the distribution of one million hybrid cocoa seedlings aim to improve productivity and disease resistance, structural issues including limited market access continue to constrain long term sector growth.
• Rising ICE certified inventories and weaker cocoa grinding data from Europe and North America indicate softer demand, providing a bearish influence on prices. At the same time, ongoing weather related supply risks across West Africa and the potential impact of El Nino continue to support a more constructive outlook for future supply. The discussion also highlights upcoming European Union sustainability and compliance requirements, which are expected to reshape cocoa sourcing, procurement practices, and global trade flows in the months ahead.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• In Cote d'Ivoire, a sharp decline in global cocoa prices has left more than 700,000 metric tons of cocoa unsold, placing significant financial strain on farmers despite a government-set producer price designed to provide stability. Reduced buying activity from major trading firms, criticism of forward selling strategies, and heavy rainfall disrupting farm access while increasing disease risks have further complicated the situation.
• Ghana is facing similar challenges. Although a large share of the 2025/26 harvest was sold in advance to reduce exposure to market volatility, the government was still forced to lower the official producer price to reflect weaker market conditions. Delayed payments to farmers have also created operational difficulties, contributing to management issues and crop spoilage.
• The episode also explores Nigeria's efforts to strengthen its cocoa sector through the distribution of one million hybrid cocoa seedlings under the National Cocoa Development Plan. While the initiative aims to improve productivity and resilience against disease and climate risks, the country continues to face structural obstacles, including aging plantations, climate pressures, limited market access, and insufficient value addition.
• At the global level, cocoa prices have retreated sharply from their 2024 highs as improved harvest expectations, weaker demand from manufacturers, and a stronger US dollar have weighed on the market. The discussion concludes by emphasizing that the current downturn exposes longstanding weaknesses in the cocoa industry, including persistent price volatility, dependence on export markets, and the limited share of value retained by producing nations.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Uneven rainfall patterns across Ivory Coast are creating significant challenges during a critical stage of crop development, while concerns over disease pressure and the potential return of El Nino continue to support a bullish outlook for cocoa markets.
• Heavy rainfall in parts of Ivory Coast has increased the risk of flooding and black pod disease, while key western growing regions are experiencing below average rainfall, threatening flowering and pod development for the upcoming October main crop. Persistent cloud cover is also limiting sunlight, further affecting crop growth in several producing areas.
• Although Ghana has not reported immediate production issues, its close climatic and geographic relationship with Ivory Coast means similar weather developments could influence cocoa production there. Given that these two countries account for the majority of global cocoa supply, any disruption in West Africa has significant implications for the international market.
• Weather concerns, combined with the risk of disease outbreaks, have contributed to stronger cocoa futures as traders anticipate the possibility of tighter global supplies. Looking ahead, forecasts pointing to a potential El Nino event present an additional source of uncertainty, with warmer and drier conditions capable of placing further stress on cocoa crops. Market participants continue to closely monitor weather developments, crop health, and production prospects as key drivers of global cocoa availability and price direction.

Global Cocoa Market Weekly Summary

• West Africa's two dominant cocoa producers, Ghana and Ivory Coast, are grappling with deepening structural and financial pressures that threaten to constrain global supply through the 2025/26 season and beyond.
• In Ghana, farmers are facing payment delays of up to six months from licensed buying companies, leaving them without the working capital needed for basic operations such as harvesting and transport. Some farmers are reportedly withholding beans until payment is assured, raising the risk of near-term supply disruptions. While the Ghana Cocoa Board has indicated that funds have been allocated to clear outstanding arrears, inconsistencies in how those funds move through the supply chain have undermined confidence. Compounding this, official farm gate prices were cut by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 season, squeezing producer margins and potentially discouraging future cultivation.
• Ivory Coast faces similar headwinds. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to fall by 10.8%, from 1.85 million metric tons to approximately 1.65 million metric tons. A 57% reduction in farmer pay, introduced at the March mid-crop, has significantly curtailed farmers' ability to invest in crop maintenance, with downstream implications for future yields. Despite an 18.9% year-on-year increase in cocoa arrivals at ports by June 2026, medium-term risks remain elevated, particularly given the added threat of El Nino-related weather disruption.
• Nigeria adds further concern to the regional picture, with production forecast to decline 11% to 305,000 metric tons. Falling price incentives and rising input costs are the primary drivers, and April 2026 export volumes dropped 20% compared to the same period last year, signalling weakening external demand alongside domestic production difficulties.
• On the policy front, Ghana and Ivory Coast are advancing efforts to harmonise cocoa pricing and marketing strategies through a regional coordination initiative, synchronising farm gate pricing and crop calendars to reduce internal competition and support farmer incomes. However, the sharp farm gate price reductions in Ivory Coast have already triggered disruption, including road blockades by cooperatives unable to move unsold inventory due to payment arrears. The initiative holds potential to strengthen the region's collective market influence, but its credibility depends on more consistent and timely payments reaching producers.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• In Ivory Coast, severe rains and strong winds damaged young flower buds and cocoa trees, raising concerns about future yields. Despite these weather challenges, cocoa port arrivals remained strong, reaching 1.69 million metric tons by early June, up 3% from the previous year. Government forecasts continue to point toward a sizeable crop, with deliveries expected to reach 2.2 million metric tons. However, a 57% reduction in the mid-crop farmgate price has raised concerns about its potential impact on farmer incomes and future production incentives.
• Ghana also reduced official farmgate prices for the 2025-26 season by approximately 30%. While the country remains a key contributor to global cocoa supply, lower producer prices could place additional pressure on farmer profitability and potentially discourage future production.
• Indonesia is pursuing long-term growth through an ambitious agricultural revitalization program that includes distributing roughly 280 million cocoa and coconut seedlings. The initiative aims to expand plantation area significantly, although meaningful production gains are expected to take several years because of cocoa's lengthy maturation cycle.
• Nigeria faces a more challenging outlook, with cocoa production projected to decline by 11% year over year and exports falling 20% through April. Lower price incentives and rising production costs continue to weigh on the sector, creating obstacles for growers and exporters.
• At the global level, market participants are reassessing supply expectations as the possibility of El Nino introduces new weather-related risks for major producing regions, particularly in West Africa. At the same time, growing speculative activity and rising inventory levels suggest improved physical availability, contributing to downward pressure on prices.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast is navigating heightened volatility in ICE cocoa futures, with rising certified warehouse stocks and declining grinding volumes in major markets pointing toward a near-term surplus. The government has forecast a 10.8% decline in production for the 2025/26 season, bringing output to approximately 1,650,000 metric tons. Looking ahead, lower farm gate prices risk discouraging investment in crop maintenance, while the potential emergence of El Nino conditions could introduce further supply-side disruption through prolonged dry spells.
• Ghana faces a structurally similar set of pressures, with falling farm gate prices eroding farmers' capacity to fund essential agronomic inputs. The Ghana Cocoa Board has imposed substantial penalties on smuggling activity in an effort to protect sector revenues, but the combination of weak price incentives and adverse weather risks keeps the medium-term production outlook uncertain.
• Indonesia is experiencing a pronounced downturn in cocoa derivative pricing, with butter, powder, and liquor all under pressure. This challenges the country's position as a key supplier in the Asian market and may reflect a combination of subdued regional demand and internal structural inefficiencies, with implications for broader intra-regional trade flows.
• Nigeria's production outlook remains under strain, with anticipated yield declines driven by falling farmer incomes at reduced price levels. Compounding this are logistical disruptions from smuggling activity and ongoing regulatory changes, leaving the sector facing considerable near-term headwinds.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast has revised its 2025/26 delivery estimate upward to 2.2 million metric tons, a sharp recovery from earlier forecasts of 1.65 million metric tons, driven by improved weather conditions. Port arrivals reached 1.64 million metric tons by 24 May 2026, up 2.5% year on year. However, a 57% reduction in farm gate prices for mid-crop poses a material risk to future production quality and volume by discouraging adequate crop management.
• Ghana faces a projected 30% decline in farm gate prices for the 2025/26 season, which could deter farmers from making necessary investments in crop care. The government is seeking to raise $1 billion through domestic bonds to finance upcoming procurement, signaling institutional commitment to maintaining purchase volumes despite compressed international prices. The downstream impact on production quality and output remains a key concern.
• Nigeria continues to contract, with cocoa exports down 35% year on year as of March. The Cocoa Association of Nigeria forecasts a further 11% production decline for 2025/26, placing output at approximately 305,000 metric tons. The trajectory reflects broader West African pressures combining climatic stress and deteriorating farm economics.
• Globally, demand signals are mixed. European grinds fell 7.8% and North American grinds declined 3.8%, while Asian grinds rose 5.2%, indicating a regional rebalancing of processing activity. A growing trend among food manufacturers toward cocoa-free chocolate alternatives introduces a longer-term structural demand risk. El Nino concerns persist, with below-average cherelle formation flagged as a potential yield constraint for the 2026/27 harvest season.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Cocoa producing regions face divergent trajectories, with Ivory Coast benefiting from favorable weather conditions while Nigeria and other producers confront structural headwinds. El Niño conditions pose a significant emerging risk between May and July 2026, threatening to disrupt yields across West Africa and reverse recent production gains. The contrast between near-term supply expansion and longer-term climatic uncertainty creates asymmetric market dynamics.
• Ivory Coast has revised its 2026 cocoa delivery forecast upward to 2,200,000 metric tons from the previous range of 1.8 to 1,900,000 metric tons, driven by favorable growing conditions. This substantial increase in production projections has created a perception of potential near-term oversupply. Cumulative port shipments have risen 1.9% year on year to 1,610,000 metric tons by May 2026, supporting the supply expansion narrative.
• Farmer economics have deteriorated markedly despite production gains. Ivory Coast implemented a 57% cut to farm gate prices for the mid-crop harvest, while Ghana reduced official farmer prices by nearly 30% for the 2025-2026 season. These aggressive price reductions constrain farmer income and may dampen investment in crop maintenance and productivity enhancements, creating longer-term production sustainability risks that could offset near-term supply increases.
• Nigeria's cocoa sector is contracting sharply, with production projected to decline 11% to 305,000 metric tons for the 2025-2026 season, attributed to lower price incentives and elevated input costs. Cocoa exports fell 35% year on year in March 2026, signaling tightening regional supply conditions. This contraction illustrates divergent regional dynamics despite global production gains.