Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast’s 2025/26 harvest increased 30% to 2.06 million tonnes, but heavy rains are disrupting infrastructure and new crop deliveries. Longer-term concerns include declining rainfall and rising temperatures, which threaten future production. With Europe absorbing around 70% of Ivorian exports, these disruptions pose significant supply-chain risks.
• Ghana’s current output has strengthened to 750,000 tonnes, but 2026/27 production is projected to fall 13% due to disease, aging trees and climate risks. Financial difficulties at CocoaBod are delaying bean purchases, while price differences with Ivory Coast increase smuggling risks. Nigeria also faces an expected 11% production decline, alongside compliance challenges linked to the EU deforestation regulation.
• Elsewhere, drought threatens Indonesia’s harvest by reducing pod size and bean weight, while excessive rainfall in Ecuador raises the risk of frosty pod rot. Togo is contending with falling exports and unsold stocks, although demand from regional grinders, particularly in Malaysia, remains firm.
• Third-quarter grindings showed diverging demand trends, with record highs in Asia, modest growth in Europe and declines in North America. Multi-year-high exchange inventories are weighing on prices, while climate risks and financial pressures are challenging processors and consumers. The market remains caught between near-term inventory pressure and growing uncertainty over future supply.