This episode covers key developments in the global cocoa market.

• In the Ivory Coast, the main crop harvest has begun under favorable dry weather, which has improved cocoa bean drying conditions. However, despite a strong start, cocoa exports have declined from 365,072 metric tons to 304,140 metric tons early in the marketing year. This, combined with ICE-monitored inventories hitting a seven-and-a-half-month low, may add upward pressure on prices. The decline in exports could also signal deeper issues related to forestry management or macroeconomic instability.
• Ghana's cocoa sector is experiencing a mix of beneficial and adverse conditions. While strong weather supports pod development and yield potential, the industry is hampered by smuggling, driven by price gaps and delayed farmer payments. The government has introduced informant reward programs and improved pricing strategies to combat these challenges. It is also supporting farmers with subsidies, including free fertilizers and pesticides, to retain agricultural value within the country.
• In Nigeria, cocoa production is forecasted to drop by 11% in the 2025-2026 crop year, down to 305,000 metric tons. This decline is linked to aging plantations and insufficient access to fertilizers, posing a risk to Nigeria’s economy and tightening global supply, which may further influence price trends.
• Cocoa’s inclusion in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is expected to draw inflows from passive investment funds, possibly stabilizing or lifting cocoa futures. However, the market remains vulnerable to softening global demand. Grinding volumes—a proxy for demand—have decreased across Asia, Europe, and North America. Elevated cocoa prices and tariffs have also curbed chocolate consumption in key consumer regions like North America.

This episode provides an in-depth overview of the cocoa market.

• Ivory Coast enters the season with strong production expectations, with pod counts above the five-year average. However, significant volumes of preseason stock are being rejected by grinders and exporters due to concerns over small bean size and low fat content. Although the main crop is robust, the mid-crop yield is expected to decline by 9% from the previous year, raising quality concerns. In response to economic pressures and the upcoming presidential election, the government has raised cocoa prices to support approximately five million farmers. Despite this, liquidity shortages and quality issues are limiting trader willingness to finance new purchases.
• Cocoa exports from Ivory Coast have seen a modest year-on-year increase, but logistical and financial hurdles are delaying shipments. On the sustainability front, 40% of cocoa is now digitally traceable, though delays in EU deforestation legislation may slow further reforms.
• Ghana’s cocoa sector is poised for recovery, with projected production exceeding 650,000 tons for the 2025–2026 season, thanks to improved farming practices and government programs. However, long-term risks from soil degradation and illegal mining remain. Subsidies and pricing support have reduced smuggling, bolstering Ghana’s market position.
• Global demand continues to lag, particularly in Europe and North America, exerting downward pressure on prices. Despite this, local enterprises are innovating with cocoa pulp to diversify income streams for farmers. As production rises across West Africa, the global cocoa market is expected to shift from a deficit to a surplus. However, demand recovery remains slow, indicated by lower grinding volumes in key consumption regions.