Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Ivory Coast, where persistent heavy rains have restricted access to cocoa farms and increased the spread of diseases such as brown rot and black pod. The potential return of El Nino is expected to further reduce flowering, pod quality, and yields during the 2026/27 main crop. Preliminary forecasts suggest production could fall to around 1.8 million tonnes, representing a significant decline from previous seasons. The discussion also highlights that the 2025/26 season recorded a 10.8 percent year on year production decline, while a sharp reduction in mid crop farmgate prices has increased financial pressure on producers and raised concerns about future investment in farm maintenance.
• The outlook for Ghana remains similarly challenging. Lower producer prices, adverse weather, and ongoing financial pressures are expected to weigh on cocoa production and farm management practices. The episode also examines the role of the Ghana Cocoa Board, noting that reduced official producer prices are affecting farmer earnings despite earlier hedging efforts.
• Nigeria is also expected to see lower cocoa output, with production projected to decline because of ageing plantations and climate related challenges. While initiatives such as the distribution of one million hybrid cocoa seedlings aim to improve productivity and disease resistance, structural issues including limited market access continue to constrain long term sector growth.
• Rising ICE certified inventories and weaker cocoa grinding data from Europe and North America indicate softer demand, providing a bearish influence on prices. At the same time, ongoing weather related supply risks across West Africa and the potential impact of El Nino continue to support a more constructive outlook for future supply. The discussion also highlights upcoming European Union sustainability and compliance requirements, which are expected to reshape cocoa sourcing, procurement practices, and global trade flows in the months ahead.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• In Cote d'Ivoire, a sharp decline in global cocoa prices has left more than 700,000 metric tons of cocoa unsold, placing significant financial strain on farmers despite a government-set producer price designed to provide stability. Reduced buying activity from major trading firms, criticism of forward selling strategies, and heavy rainfall disrupting farm access while increasing disease risks have further complicated the situation.
• Ghana is facing similar challenges. Although a large share of the 2025/26 harvest was sold in advance to reduce exposure to market volatility, the government was still forced to lower the official producer price to reflect weaker market conditions. Delayed payments to farmers have also created operational difficulties, contributing to management issues and crop spoilage.
• The episode also explores Nigeria's efforts to strengthen its cocoa sector through the distribution of one million hybrid cocoa seedlings under the National Cocoa Development Plan. While the initiative aims to improve productivity and resilience against disease and climate risks, the country continues to face structural obstacles, including aging plantations, climate pressures, limited market access, and insufficient value addition.
• At the global level, cocoa prices have retreated sharply from their 2024 highs as improved harvest expectations, weaker demand from manufacturers, and a stronger US dollar have weighed on the market. The discussion concludes by emphasizing that the current downturn exposes longstanding weaknesses in the cocoa industry, including persistent price volatility, dependence on export markets, and the limited share of value retained by producing nations.

Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Uneven rainfall patterns across Ivory Coast are creating significant challenges during a critical stage of crop development, while concerns over disease pressure and the potential return of El Nino continue to support a bullish outlook for cocoa markets.
• Heavy rainfall in parts of Ivory Coast has increased the risk of flooding and black pod disease, while key western growing regions are experiencing below average rainfall, threatening flowering and pod development for the upcoming October main crop. Persistent cloud cover is also limiting sunlight, further affecting crop growth in several producing areas.
• Although Ghana has not reported immediate production issues, its close climatic and geographic relationship with Ivory Coast means similar weather developments could influence cocoa production there. Given that these two countries account for the majority of global cocoa supply, any disruption in West Africa has significant implications for the international market.
• Weather concerns, combined with the risk of disease outbreaks, have contributed to stronger cocoa futures as traders anticipate the possibility of tighter global supplies. Looking ahead, forecasts pointing to a potential El Nino event present an additional source of uncertainty, with warmer and drier conditions capable of placing further stress on cocoa crops. Market participants continue to closely monitor weather developments, crop health, and production prospects as key drivers of global cocoa availability and price direction.