Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker
Welcome to Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker, your data-driven update on the worldwide spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. I'm your host, delivering the latest figures as of late January 2026.
Global hotspots reveal intense activity across 43 countries, with 2525 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds since late November 2025, per FAO surveillance. The US dominates with 689 outbreaks and 70 human H5N1 cases through April 2025, plus a rare H5N5 case in November, according to CDC data. Europe surges: Belgium, Germany, Hungary, and Poland reported cases January 12-27; France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and UK from January 8-28, as tracked by Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection. Asia persists with Japan's outbreaks on January 8, South Korea's H5N9 in December, and Cambodia's last human H5N1 case November 10. In the Americas, PAHO notes 508 outbreaks across nine countries in 2025, including recent H5N1 in Brazil on January 21 and Bulgaria on February 4.
Picture steep trend lines: North America's outbreaks surge upward since 2022, with seven Asian incursions via the Pacific flyway and 239 annual transitions between flyways, from phylodynamic analysis. US per-farm outbreaks dwarf Europe's, but wild bird persistence endures longest on Atlantic and Pacific routes. Comparatively, FAO logs 1391 new outbreaks since December 23 in 39 countries, mostly H5N1 and H5Nx, while December 2025 alone saw 777 new events, including 169 in poultry.
Cross-border transmission hinges on migratory wild birds, especially Anseriformes like ducks and geese, driving 17.81 yearly jumps into poultry. East-west spread outpaces reverse by 4.4 times, with Pacific incursions from Asia exposing flyway risks, per Earth.com and PubMed reviews.
Containment yields mixed results. US rapid flock culling succeeded initially but falters against entrenched wild bird reservoirs. Failures dominate as rebounds via migrants render the virus completely out of control, warn UNMC experts. Limited mammal-to-mammal transmission persists, though clade 2.3.4.4b fuels infections in over 200 mammalian species via predation, per Infection Control Today.
Emerging variants of concern focus on clade 2.3.4.4b, with H5N5 in the US and UK, H5N8 in Poland January 9, and H5N9 in Korea, via CHP and Gavi. Mutations like HA-Q226L, PB2-E627K enhance mammalian adaptation and antiviral resistance, elevating human-to-human risks, as detailed in PubMed genetic studies.
Travel advisories urge avoiding poultry farms and raw milk in hotspots; WHO reports cumulative human cases through 2026. Boost biosecurity, monitor mutations, and prepare clade-specific vaccines, with over 20 licensed globally.
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