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At the Water's Edge

At the Water's Edge

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 The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.All rights reserved by WRKdefined Politik & Regierungen
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  • Special Forces Aren’t Ready for Drone Warfare | John Kowalski

    Special Forces Aren’t Ready for Drone Warfare | John Kowalski
    Apr 22 2026
    Drones are already reshaping modern warfare—from Ukraine to the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz. In this episode, Scott sits down with U.S. Army Special Forces Major John Kowalski to break down what that means for the future of conflict—and whether America is ready for it. Drawing on real-world examples from Ukraine, Iranian-backed proxy forces, and conflicts around the globe, Kowalski argues that unmanned systems are not just another capability—they are fundamentally changing how wars are fought. In some cases, they are already responsible for the majority of casualties and are allowing low-resource actors to punch far above their weight. The question is what comes next. For decades, U.S. Army Special Forces have operated as 12-man teams built around advising and enabling partner forces. But if future conflicts are dominated by drones in the air, on the ground, and at sea, that model may no longer be enough. Kowalski makes the case that Special Forces must adapt—structurally, not just tactically—including the potential need for new roles, new training pipelines, and a fundamental rethink of how teams are organized and deployed. This conversation explores:– Why drone warfare is accelerating faster than most militaries can adapt– How non-state actors are using cheap systems to create strategic effects– What the U.S. is getting right—and where it may still be behind– How Special Forces could evolve to remain relevant in future conflicts If the current trajectory continues, the next major conflict won’t look like Iraq or Afghanistan. It will look very different. And the time to adapt is now.
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    52 Min.
  • This Isn’t a Negotiation | Robert Pape on the Iran War

    This Isn’t a Negotiation | Robert Pape on the Iran War
    Apr 21 2026
    This is Part 5 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) analyzing the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, multiple ceasefires were announced—and just as quickly fell apart. At the same time, the U.S. and Iran have continued escalating pressure through a de facto blockade dynamic around the Strait of Hormuz. But the most important takeaway from this conversation is more fundamental: 👉 This is not a negotiation. It’s power politics. Why ceasefires and “deals” keep collapsing almost immediately The enforcement problem in international politics—and why agreements don’t hold How both the U.S. and Iran are effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz Why the conflict is shifting toward a longer war dynamic How escalation signals are being used to demonstrate credibility What potential retaliation against U.S. naval forces could look like In international conflict, there is no court to enforce agreements. Every concession can create new vulnerability—and that makes real compromise extremely difficult. Any direct attacks on U.S. naval vessels operating near the blockade line Further escalation tied to strikes on infrastructure (power, bridges) Whether negotiations resume—or continue to break down Signs the conflict is settling into a sustained long-war dynamic New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time. Pape publishes ongoing frameworks and updates on this conflict via Substack. https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.
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    32 Min.
  • What Happens If Iran Loses Control of Its Terror Network? | Dr. Colin P. Clarke

    What Happens If Iran Loses Control of Its Terror Network? | Dr. Colin P. Clarke
    Apr 15 2026
    What happens if Iran loses control of its global network of proxy groups? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Dr. Colin P. Clarke, Executive Director of the Soufan Center, to break down how terrorism is evolving—and why the next phase may be more dangerous than the last. They explore Iran’s strategy of using proxy organizations like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and why dismantling centralized control could actually increase the risk of more fragmented, unpredictable, and violent terrorist activity. The conversation also covers: Why today’s terrorism threat is more decentralized and complex than during the Global War on Terror How terrorist groups are funding themselves through organized crime and global networks The role of private military companies like the Wagner Group in fueling instability Why ISIS and its affiliates remain a persistent global threat How great power competition is intersecting with terrorism in places like the Middle East and Africa The risk of escalation between nuclear-armed states like India and Pakistan This is a practitioner-focused discussion on where terrorism stands today—and what policymakers, operators, and analysts may be missing about what comes next. Colin P. Clarke X/Twitter: @ColinPCarke Soufan Center Intel Brief: https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief/
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    51 Min.
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