Welcome back to Fat Dog & The Cat, where edges are built on matchup geometry, personnel realities, and game scripts that repeat.

January 9 brings three spots across college football and the NBA, driven by injury-forced pace changes, frontcourt leverage, and possession inflation.

🏈 Oregon vs Indiana — UNDER 48.5 (-110)

Oregon’s running back room is effectively gone. With Davison out and Whittington questionable, the Ducks are forced into a pass-leaning script against an Indiana defense that thrives on negative plays and pressure.

That combination kills drives: sacks, punts, and the occasional forced throw. If Indiana gets in front, they’re comfortable bleeding clock with the run game and shortening the contest. This profiles as a slow-cooker game rather than a fireworks show.

🏀 Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies

Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 29.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-109)

OKC arrives without real centers, turning this matchup into a frontcourt vacuum. That’s ideal for Jaren Jackson Jr., who sees increased usage without Morant and benefits from easy rebounds against undersized lineups.

If OKC sends help to survive inside, assist opportunities rise. Foul risk also drops when JJJ isn’t battling true fives. He doesn’t need an outlier performance — just a standard workload amplified by matchup gravity.

🏀 Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers — OVER 229.5 (-110)

This game wears a trench coat, but it’s a track meet underneath. Lakers home games have consistently cleared totals, and both teams score efficiently while defending inconsistently.

LeBron’s status doesn’t deter the Over. If he plays, efficiency improves. If he sits, Luka’s usage spikes and Los Angeles’ defense softens further. Add poor defensive rebounding on both sides — extra possessions pile up quietly.

🎯 January 9 Summary

• Oregon–Indiana UNDER 48.5

• Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 29.5 PAR

• Bucks–Lakers OVER 229.5

Three games. One rule: injuries don’t just change players — they change pace.

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Welcome back to Fat Dog & The Cat, where edges come from structural flaws, schedule spots, and possession math—not vibes or headlines.

January 7 delivers three plays across soccer and the NBA, driven by defensive leakage, fatigue, and second-chance dominance.

⚽ Manchester United at Burnley — BTTS YES (-115)

Manager changes don’t patch leaks overnight. Manchester United have now gone 15 straight Premier League road matches without a clean sheet, and firing Amorim doesn’t magically repair an away defense that consistently gives up goals in uncomfortable moments.

Burnley sit near the bottom of the table, but desperation at Turf Moor has a way of manufacturing at least one chaotic goal—especially against teams that struggle to defend transitions. Burnley have also conceded 39 goals in 20 matches, so expecting a shutout on either side is optimistic at best.

Two porous defenses. Ninety minutes. One inevitable exchange.

🏀 Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics — Celtics -9.5 (-110)

This is a classic fatigue spot. Denver arrives in Boston after an overtime game in Philadelphia plus travel, and without Nikola Jokić, the Nuggets’ profile changes entirely—from structured contender to lineup-by-committee.

Boston remains functional without Tatum. Brown and White still generate efficient looks, and TD Garden has a long history of turning role players into temporary scorers when opponents show up heavy-legged. Late rotations and tired closeouts are where double-digit spreads quietly cash.

🏀 Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs — Spurs -7.5 (-110)

Road back-to-backs are unforgiving, especially when the Lakers arrive missing key glue pieces like Reaves and Hachimura. Short rest for LeBron and Luka compresses rotations and turns bench minutes into survival mode.

San Antonio is younger, deeper, and owns a major rebounding edge—top-tier on the glass against a Lakers team near the bottom. Extra possessions pile up fast, and that’s before accounting for Fox’s pace and Wembanyama’s rim deterrence. The Lakers’ recent clutch luck has been pristine; regression usually arrives without warning.

🎯 January 7 Summary

BTTS YES — Man United vs Burnley

Celtics -9.5

Spurs -7.5

Three games. One principle: fatigue and defensive leaks always show up on the scoreboard.

Follow us:

🎥 YouTube: Analytical Edge

🐦 X (Twitter): @wallybristles

🎙️ Podcast: Analytical Edge with Fat Dog and The Cat