Welcome back to Fat Dog & The Cat, where edges are built on matchup geometry, personnel realities, and game scripts that repeat.

January 9 brings three spots across college football and the NBA, driven by injury-forced pace changes, frontcourt leverage, and possession inflation.

🏈 Oregon vs Indiana — UNDER 48.5 (-110)

Oregon’s running back room is effectively gone. With Davison out and Whittington questionable, the Ducks are forced into a pass-leaning script against an Indiana defense that thrives on negative plays and pressure.

That combination kills drives: sacks, punts, and the occasional forced throw. If Indiana gets in front, they’re comfortable bleeding clock with the run game and shortening the contest. This profiles as a slow-cooker game rather than a fireworks show.

🏀 Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies

Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 29.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-109)

OKC arrives without real centers, turning this matchup into a frontcourt vacuum. That’s ideal for Jaren Jackson Jr., who sees increased usage without Morant and benefits from easy rebounds against undersized lineups.

If OKC sends help to survive inside, assist opportunities rise. Foul risk also drops when JJJ isn’t battling true fives. He doesn’t need an outlier performance — just a standard workload amplified by matchup gravity.

🏀 Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers — OVER 229.5 (-110)

This game wears a trench coat, but it’s a track meet underneath. Lakers home games have consistently cleared totals, and both teams score efficiently while defending inconsistently.

LeBron’s status doesn’t deter the Over. If he plays, efficiency improves. If he sits, Luka’s usage spikes and Los Angeles’ defense softens further. Add poor defensive rebounding on both sides — extra possessions pile up quietly.

🎯 January 9 Summary

• Oregon–Indiana UNDER 48.5

• Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 29.5 PAR

• Bucks–Lakers OVER 229.5

Three games. One rule: injuries don’t just change players — they change pace.

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