The Houthis are back in the news, advancing down the Red Sea coast and threatening to take control of Bab-el-Mandeb strait, though they have apparently reassured Washington that they mean no harm to international trade, at least for now.

Zineb Riboua is a research fellow at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East. On Counterweight she explains who the Houthis actually are — Ansar Allah from Saada, a Zaidi movement that is indigenous and still tied to Iran — then walks through this week’s coastal push, the Southern Transitional Council fight with Saudi Arabia, and why Riyadh sees a window now that IRGC support is thinner. She traces the Saudi–UAE split through Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and Libya; reads the Mecca Pact with Turkey and Pakistan as a deconfliction channel still being written; and argues Trump is unlikely to open a second major front in Yemen while the energy market and midterms dominate. On the Red Sea she spells out why Bab el-Mandeb matters more for Egypt, Europe, and Asia than for U.S. trade — and how Chinese satellite firms supplied Houthi targeting data while Chinese and Russian ships were spared, which flipped the old “include China” playbook. She closes on China’s failed Gulf mediation, the bite of enforced sanctions on Iran’s revolutionary-proxy model, Iraq’s September 30 militia demilitarization test, and Gulf preparations for a much weaker Islamic Republic — including the absence of Arab-capital street defenses of Tehran.

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Zineb Riboua: @zriboua · Hudson Institute

Will Chamberlain: @willchamberlain Instagram / TikTok: @counterweightpod

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CHAPTERS

0:00 Cold open — Saudis never allowed to win; Houthis steal the aid

2:31 Who the Houthis are — Ansar Allah, Zaidi, indigenous and Iran-tied

5:05 Coastal ops — STC, UAE, and Saudi’s post-Iran window

8:47 Bab el-Mandeb — Iran’s interest and Houthi diversification

10:48 Why the Saudis struggle — Washington never let them finish it

12:35 Saudi–UAE split — Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, Libya

16:47 Mecca Pact — Turkey, Pakistan, and a still-unwritten deal

19:06 Trump, Houthi strikes, and Abraham Accords leverage

21:07 Bab el-Mandeb for trade — Egypt, Europe, Asia; not mainly America

21:58 China armed the crisis — satellite targeting data for the Houthis

24:04 China’s double game with the Gulf and Iran

27:45 Sanctions hit Chinese oil buyers and the shadow banks

30:23 How badly Iran feels the bite — a revolutionary state without cash

33:58 What America should do — energy market, missile shield, proxies

37:15 Iraq’s militia deadline — the Sep 30 test

40:04 Preparing for a weaker Islamic Republic

40:56 No Arab street defense of Iran — and why that matters

43:57 The perpetual counterterror bill vs tying the Gulf to the U.S.